Fed to purchase $600 billion in bonds...

What US exports? One of the underlying problems is that the US no longer produces the goods it once did. The US seems to have problems producing goods even the US will purchase, so by devaluing the dollar suddenly these foreign countries will desire goods we won’t buy or don’t produce?

The US went after financial services as it’s great export. When they’re bankrupt, how much demand will there be for those services?

Most likely what will happen is that the Federal government will be forced to stop borrowing, i.e., not raise the debt limit. This will result in significant cuts in government spending and a change in US bond ratings (possibly even to junk at the rate they’re going). I don’t think the Fed will really have the control they think they will have, and that could very easily spiral into hyperinflation territory.

The Fed doesn’t control the fix, they just control the trigger to the gun.

So how do we explain the fact that the dollar cratered today?

The US does still have an export market: grains (wheat, soy, corn), and capital goods (aircraft, semiconductors, telecomms), and some consumer goods (notably, automobiles). There is competition, but the US is not completely dead in terms of international trade. What kills it are the various workers unions miseducating workers that they are “exceptional” and therefore “deserve” higher wage levels; and then there are the intervening trade policies…

The demand for financial services is still pretty high, and those providing it are increasingly not from the US. Asia and the Middle East have been growing in that sector of the global economy. As for the US being the chief provider of financial services, that didn’t last long. After the financial sector shifted from London to New York, it wasn’t long before the financial hubs in Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, Mumbai, Dubai) stepped up their influence. Technology advances have allowed for the global financial sector to be a 24-hour operation, and thus no longer centered in any one country.

I agree with you that the US government is going to be forced to cut spending, but that’s a trend with all national governments. I think it’s a great example to use in educating people that government can only create waste; not jobs, not wealth, just waste. I also agree with you on your belief that the Fed will be surprised when they find that they don’t have the amount of control they think they do; and that they will fail in their attempts to induce consumption when the policies of the Federal government have people hesitating about taking any action. On the other hand, I will disagree with you on the bonds ratings only because bonds ratings agencies are tied to the government; and your belief in hyperinflation, I believe that we will see a period of inflation and once this quantitative easing runs its course, that we will experience another period of deflation as the market corrects from the intervention.

The question is: how much are people lending to the Fed? That is how much QE2 should be.

The Federal Reserve is a central bank, i.e. a weird type of financial intermediary. It can be instructive to recast the Fed’s operations and policies in that light. Although the Fed has been liberated from many of the ordinary constraints of banking, it still functions along similar principles. Notes issued by the Fed are no longer liabilities (i.e. they can’t exchanged for gold), but I think good monetary policy should treat them as such. If you take a $5 bill to the Fed and demand payment, then all you might get in return is five $1 bills. But base money is still like a liability. When banks or individuals save by holding base money, they are de facto lending to the Federal Reserve. Admittedly, this is a peculiar kind of loan, but it is the Federal Reserve’s responsibility to invest those savings.

Open market operations are just the means by which the Federal Reserve can coordinate savings and investment, match the market and natural interest rates, and fulfill its role as financial intermediary. The situation is complicated by the absence of any reserves at the Federal Reserve itself, because the principle of adverse clearings that ordinarily would signal banks when to expand or contract is missing. Instead, the Fed must use crude substitutes like interest rates, inflation, or nominal gross domestic product. Given present institutions, I see no alternative but to have the Federal Reserve try to emulate how a private bank might function. In the absence of clear profit and loss signals, some crude alternative must be chosen. I would prefer some level target for nominal income at about 3 percent a year, because I believe this would provide the least bad monetary policy for microeconomic coordination.

Anyway, right now people, and banks, are lending to the Fed by holding its “liabilities”. How much are they lending? That is unclear for the reasons explained above, but I think it is at least $1 trillion. Therefore, QE2 should be equal to that. (It could be negative, in which case the Fed should contract!)

No, absolutely not. This is a wild stretch. The Federal Reserve doesn’t have real liabilities. Just because base money is not an asset does not necessarily mean that it’s really a liability. The FED is unlike all other banks; it does not operate under “similar principles” (which you readily acknowledge later in the thread).

You mean open market operations are the means by which the federal reserve causes discoordination in the loanable funds market by arbitrarily altering the supply of money by decree. The Federal Reserve monopolizes the financial sector which eliminates all competition, therefore eliminating the mechanisms that prevent continuous monetary expansion.

Correct. But from this, how do you reach this conclusion:

? Stabilizing nominal income streams seems to be of little importance when compared to realigning the capital structure. It’s important to stabilize expectations in order to prevent “secondary phenomena,” but the main priority is to eliminate malinvestment. Similarly, trying to come up with schemes that would increase the efficiency of a centrally planning authority is simply superfluous. There is no middle way; monetary and inter-temporal equilibrium are impossible conditions when we don’t have a competitive banking system.

LOL, and how did you come up with this number? And what about the money multiplier? The FED could increase the supply of money if it stopped paying interest on reserves. It’s simply trying to keep the bond bubble going (which replaced the housing bubble); that’s all.

From other things he posts Modus Tollens seems a monetarist.

Modus Tollens is Lee Kelly.

Even the Monetarists don’t support this level of QE. Anna Schwartz warns that it will lead to hyperinflation and totally opposes Ben Bernanke.

That could mean the mini-rally (look at exchange charts for Monday-Wednesday) is already over. I am personally cautious: both the Bank of Japan and the Bundesbank will surely be pressured to sell yen and euro and purchase dollars. But like the BoJ’s move earlier this year these are just very short-term measures that won’t matter in the end.

It’s ironic stock exchanges located in exporting countries seem to have literally gone drunk with excitment while the mini-rally was undone in a single day isn’t it?

Should I buy Gold with all my college savings before this happens. How severe would the inflation be.

Never put all your eggs in one basket. Education is still one of the best investments you can make.

but by the time I use those savings how much would they be worth because inflation devalues my money if it was held in a bank. If I were to invest in gold wouldn’t its price rise significantly if this much money is printed.

First, I am neither a monetarist nor Austrian, because I am not an economist. But I have been more influenced by Austrian economics than monetarism; my views on monetary economics are closer to Hayek than Friedman.

No, absolutely not. This is a wild stretch. The Federal Reserve doesn’t have real liabilities. Just because base money is not an asset does not necessarily mean that it’s really a liability. The FED is unlike all other banks; it does not operate under “similar principles” (which you readily acknowledge later in the thread).

I explicitly stated in the paragraph you quoted that ‘notes issued by the Fed are no longer liabilities.’ Once upon a time notes issued by the Fed were liabilities, because they were redeemable in gold. If the Fed issued too many notes, then the principle of adverse clearings would force a contraction. When the dollar became a fiat money, the Fed’s notes ceased being liabilities. But I think good monetary economics should treat Fed notes like liabilities. I also explicitly stated that ‘the Fed has been liberated from many of the ordinary constraints of banking’ , i.e. ‘the Fed is unlike all other banks’, but the Fed still operates along similar principles. The Fed could expand the money supply by purchasing bricks, apples, or cars, but instead its assets consist of various kinds of loans.

You mean open market operations are the means by which the federal reserve causes discoordination in the loanable funds market by arbitrarily altering the supply of money by decree. The Federal Reserve monopolizes the financial sector which eliminates all competition, therefore eliminating the mechanisms that prevent continuous monetary expansion.

I do not believe that mechanisms exist to prevent continuous monetary expansion, at least within a free market for money and banking. In any case, the very same monopoly power to discoordinate the loanable funds market is also the power to coordinate it. The Fed’s monopoly ensures that nobody else can satisfy changes in the supply and demand for base money, and so the Fed cannot refrain from intervention. What is the least bad monetary policy? That is the question we have to answer. I happen to think QE2 is an improvement, but not enough. You disagree, and I am sympathetic to such views.

Stabilizing nominal income streams seems to be of little importance when compared to realigning the capital structure. It’s important to stabilize expectations in order to prevent “secondary phenomena,” but the main priority is to eliminate malinvestment. Similarly, trying to come up with schemes that would increase the efficiency of a centrally planning authority is simply superfluous. There is no middle way; monetary and inter-temporal equilibrium are impossible conditions when we don’t have a competitive banking system.

I think stabilising nominal income expectations on a steady growth path (with zero inflation, on average) will provide the best macroeconomic conditions for ‘realigning the capital structure’. I advocate this as the least bad monetary environment for microeconomic coordination. In other words, I have Austrian concerns about the misallocation of resources, distortion of relative prices, and unsustainable capital structure in mind.

LOL, and how did you come up with this number? And what about the money multiplier? The FED could increase the supply of money if it stopped paying interest on reserves. It’s simply trying to keep the bond bubble going (which replaced the housing bubble); that’s all.

The money multiplier is very low at the moment, and I do not expect it to rise immediately. The channel through which QE2 will increase nominal income is not through fractional reserve credit expansion. However, eventually the multiplier will begin to pick up, and when that happens the Fed will need to be ready to contract.

I forgot to answer a question: how did I come up with $1 trillion?

I suspect more than $600 billion will be needed to hit my preferred target. I admit, I said $1 trillion partly just rile up Austrians. Truth is, I don’t know and neither does the Fed. They should just spend (or buy) whatever it takes to hit their targets. Unfortunately, they won’t make an explicit target! But that is another issue altogether.