Is BitCoin the currency of the future?

Historically, the Euro also did not have an established existing history of exchange ratios, but was derived from preexisting currencies. The difference is that the Euro-ratios were established by political means (by successive restriction of the fluctuation boundaries), and the one of Bitcoin was established by the market.

Let’s say that there was no gold, but suddenly the first nugget was dug out and subsequently others. In such a situation, gold would also not have a history of exchange ratios. But since gold has (let’s just assume it does, for simplicity) comparative advantages against silver, its spread as a medium of exchange would grow compared to preexisting money (e.g. silver). After the spread was big enough, people might start switching to using it in bookkeeping and financial calculations instead of silver.

Bitcoin was not dug out but designed, but that makes no difference here. The point is that asynchronous entry to the market underscores that the “historical” argument is, well, historical, rather than praxeological.

So your objection is pointless.

Bitcoin is not redeemable in fiat. It is traded against fiat. Noone, including the “issuers”, has the obligation to redeem Bitcoin in anything.

If you think about this objection more thoroughly, you will realise that any human endeavour benefits early adopters, but only if it subsequently shows successful. If it’s not successful, they bear the loss. If this was somehow relevant for Bitcoin, you could make the same objection to gold or fiat, or any human activity for that matter.

Why should it become worthless? A ban could very well increase the price. Furthermore, since its foundation is virtual, only a ban by a significant number of governments would have any relevant effect. Otherwise, US citizens could still found an offshore company, store their Bitcoins outside of the country and it would still be legal. Furthermore, while US has been hostile against privately issued currencies, in Asia they seem to be quite popular. EU is a big question mark, but I read a paper about digital currencies lately, and it mentions that that there is a law in UK that regulates digital currencies and apparently it’s not a big issue there.

Again, this issue is not specific to Bitcoin. If someone found out how to manufacture fake gold that cannot be (easily) distinguished from real one, that would undermine the gold as money too.

This is a valid objection, although it would need to provide a better combination of features and/or overcome the network effects. Furthermore, again the same thing can be said about gold or anything else.

In general, there is an element of truth in each of the objections you brought up, but if you think about it from a broader perspective, there is nothing special about them.

I already conceded(pages ago) that BTC’s, or anything, could indeed be made a money if it were done so by decree. That is necessarily true.

As stated before I’ve yet to see any argument from you. What argument do you keep refering to?

Could you please specify what do you mean “by decree”? In the context of money, this usually refers to the initiation of force by the government. This is clearly not present in the case of Bitcoin. On the other hand, if you by that mean that someone who does not have the ability to initiate force declares that Bitcoin is money, the same is then valid for gold.

Let me point out, again, that your first reaction to me was because I made an argument, and then subsequently you magically forget about it. Then I reposted it, but you somehow miss it. This is already a significant hint that you are not interested in a debate.

Nevertheless, let me do it again: the objection that Bitcoin is valueless is completely irrelevant as long as government interferes with money (e.g. by legal tender laws, or by confiscating gold). This interference creates a market gap, and anything that fills that market gap has value. In other words, the value of Bitcoin is created by government force, albeit unintentionally. Assuming that on a free market, gold is superiour, once government interference with money disappears, Bitcoin will be replaced by gold or its digital substitutes.

Your objection to Bitcoin is like an objection to tax consultants. On a free market, there would be no tax consultants. They are, indirectly, created by government force. But until that happens, a tax consultant might very well be a profitable career, and indeed they help you to reduce the confiscatory power of the government. Now, imagine that someone developed a digital tax assistant on steroids, that would automatically know everything about laws, was able to reduce your tax burden to the minimum level legally possible and was available at the cost of copying. Would you then go on a rampage that it is a fraud, on account that it does not fit into an obscure irrelevant definition?

No. Bitcoins are exchanged for US dollars on an open market and are therefore not proxies. They don not represent a direct liability to pay in dollars and there is no fixed exchange rate. Any economic calculation made using bitcoins is done based on speculation about a future exchange rates between other currencies/commodities and bitcoins. Your logic only works if it is an historic certitude that bitcoins will maintain a fixed exchange ratio with US dollars, something that cannot be demonstrated by praxeology nor through historic observation.

Yes I agree obviously, but limitation of number of bitcoins could be done in different way easily as not to benefit early adopters as insanely as it was done in current implementation for example by introducing constant inflation. In my view it was done purposefully to extract as much money from people as possible in shortest amount of time. Even if this conspiracy is true however it has nothing to do with merits of the system.

When ban hits its acceptance will fall - no shop will accept it. With ban in place, bitcoins usefulnes will diminish and so demand will fall. It will mean that bitcoin will not topple current monetary regime because most people will simply ignore them then - it would not meet criteria for money. Will it become worthless then? To me certainly as it would not deliver on the promise of being money. WoW gold for example is certainly not worthless to some people - it is just not money.

People had, I don’t know, 3 thousand years? to fake the gold successfully as to fool everyone and you can’t say they had no incentive. There is a reason gold was picked as money back then. In case of bitcoin - software bugs are a given. Probability of someone finding out how to fake gold versus finding the exploit in software can’t be, at least to me, reasonably compared.

Agreed, but gold would still have some value because its use is not only as money. Bitcoin, if better system were to show up, would just die.

boniek:

The question however is, what are the alternatives? I only see two. Higher built in inflation, which obviously invalidates a crucial point of Bitcoin. Another one is to assign creation of Bitcoins by non-mathematical properties. But that again invalidates the core feature: who would decide who gets how much? How do you make sure noone pretends to be multiple persons?

First of all, how do you effectivelly ban it? Bitcoin is just some math. Are you going to ban math? And how are you going to enforce it internationally? Furthermore, the price after ban depends on what substitutes are available. The price of drugs, for example, rises when made illegal. Since Bitcoin was designed due to a lack of usable substitutes in the first place, how do you know the price won’t rise if it was made illegal?

There are multiple issues with this. First of all, I can’t determine if a gold coin is genuine and could be easily fooled by a gold-plated tungsten coin. In order to verify its authenticity, I would need to spend a comparatively high amount of resources, either myself or by hiring an expert, and the value of the coin might be diminished in the process. Bitcoin is based on math, and there are multiple open source implementations of the algorithm. The verification of an authenticity of a Bitcoin transaction takes a small amount of time and you just need a computer with a network connection. The type of attack you’re describing is as if one computer tired to persuade other computers that 2+2 = 5. Furthermore, why does a scammer need to fool everyone?

Probably lower than the current level though.

I just said it in my previous post - constant inflation. Everybody gets constant amount of bitcoins per block till all blocks are solved. It would be much less suspicious that this is just a platform to rip people off. This issue is not important from the point of view of bitcoin viability as money though.

How do you effectively ban USD in Poland? It is just a some paper. Are you going to ban paper? And how are you going to enforce it internationally? :slight_smile:

Price depends only on subjective valuations. I can’t speak for other people but what use will bitcoins have as money to me if I won’t be able to spend them to buy anything I want and if I won’t be able to do that why I would want to store my wealth in them?

But you can definitely distinguish fake from original for example by cutting it. In case of bitcoins if exploit were to be found you wont be able to tell the difference.

Still better than nothing.

This is the monetarist approach. That does not necessarily mean it’s incorrect, but it’s not founded in praxeology either. Even if you have constant inflation, as the number of users increases, from the perspective of an individual user, the marginal return on investment still decreases. So there is still a reason to call it “unfair”. Furthermore, in the current implementation the block size adjusts only once every four years anyway so there is plenty of time to hop on.

As far as I know, USD is not banned in Poland. In fact I think a lot of Austrians misrepresent the legal tender laws. For a normal businessman, the direct effect of legal tender laws on his trades is largely non-existant, with the exception of countries suffering from hyperinflation, or communist ones, where governments explicitly ban it. If you’re not a bank, you probably do not need to accept USD (or the local tender) in any trade you are conducting. The reason why fiat is regionally distributed is mostly due to indirect influence (e.g. you need to use the local currency as the main one in your bookkeeping, banks often treat it favourably, and various public services require it) and network effects.

I’m not familiar with Poland in particular, but in general in communist countries, you were prohibited from owning a “harder” currency. That did not stop a flourishing black market and high prices for those currencies.

The problem in the US is that the government often attacks producers (rather than users) of competing currencies. But the production of Bitcoin is decentralised, and happens all over the world. So what’s the government going to do? The computer that produces a Bitcoin does not need to store it. It could be stored in a different country. So even if somehow the government would claim that the mining rig is violating its monopoly on mint, confiscating the rig still does not confiscate the Bitcoins.

Think of Bitcoin as bittorrent. It’s just data flowing on the internet. It’s also comparatively smaller amount of data. So how do you stop it? You forbid people from renting servers in other countries, and connecting to services in other countries? Apart from having ridiculous restrictions of the internet, which affect almost all use of it whatsoever, there is no effective way of stopping it. Also, even if they somehow get to you and you get jailed, you can still manage to protect your bitcoins from being expropriated (and leave them to be used by your family, for example). Compare that to gold: government takes the gold and you’re screwed.

You can use it to buy stuff from countries that do not ban bitcoin, and you can trade them on black market. There might be a higher risk, but the market value of Bitcoins would also be higher.

I’m not an expert, so I don’t know to what extent this is correct or not (for a gold-plated tungsten probably yes, but that’s hardly the only way to forge a gold coin). Nevertheless, it diminishes the value of the coin and its usability. Furthermore, there’s the problem of physical contact and speed. If you’re trading remotely or online, it is impractical to cut a coin that is stored somewhere else, so you’d need to substitute gold for a note, or a DGC (digital gold currency), which has its own range of problems.

Unless, of course, someone invents replicators. Then gold would become worth next to nothing.

My point is that there is no praxeological reason to why any specific type of medium of exchange should be dominant. The advantages and disadvantages of them (and therefore their ability to grasp this or that part of the market for medium of exchange) are heterogeneous variables, and their relative importance changes depending on the environment and the state of technological progress. While it’s possible that on a free market, gold would be dominant for the time being, we do not have a free market. Furthermore, gold is much more in danger from government than Bitcoin. Even if they wanted, they can’t do much about it.

No you made a comparison between fiat and BTC’s. SO I was pointing out that moneys by decree could easily be established as money, by way of force.

Unless there exists a contingent medium of people where all economic and accounting calculations are done in bitcoin denominations. You are 1000% percent wrong and oyu haven’t bothered to consider a single thing any of your opponents have stated here on this thread.

Feel free to post a link of someone’s accounting books written all in BTC’s.

As stated before, many many times. I have no objection to bitcoins. Especially as a radically useful laundering mechanism. I just think it’s fraudulent to sell it to people as money. In truth I don’t think you know what my arguments are. Thats why I ignore your posts. =p

http://blog.mises.org/17294/a-clear-concise-look-at-bitcoin/

The only thing that I have posted based on emotion in this thread has been how humorous that you people are wasting your time with this discussion. Bitcoin is not viable, and it will fail. It will fail, because of the lack of people willing to support such a ridiculous notion, So Peter, your argument here is irrational. Not to mention that you are arguing on this of the basis of the irrationality of Man, while not seeing that the irrationality end’s when there is something that is obviously absurd as Bitcoins.

Like I read on Youtube earlier, it’s only good for virtual hooker’s. Other than that, you are wasting your time.

Yes, I was the emotional one here all this time. Give me a break. Half of the people on this forum wouldn’t know a rational argument if they made one.

/rant

Filc,

so basically the whole point of your posts is that you are obsessed with an obscure meaningless definition which is shared by a miniscule proportion of population.

NidStyles,

in other words, you have no argument and are not actually interested in a debate about this topic.

Well I don’t know of a single firm or household that does economic calculation in terms of gold or any other exchangable medium besides fiat currency either.That’s largely because incomes and expenses need to be calculated in terms of dollars for tax purposes and because the white market is essentially forced to do all calculation in terms of dollars. Plus, gresham’s law has basically eliminated the use of any medium that does not depreciate at the same rate of fiat currency. I still think it would be wrong to say that gold isn’t a form of money or that it is a dollar proxy.

Anyways, I’m pretty sure the only disagreement we have is in how we are using the word “proxy”. To my knowledge, a proxy is something that can be used in leiu of some other good, which is why credit cards and banknotes are proxies as they represent a direct liability to pay a certain amount of some good in the future. Bitcoins are not proxies; they do not represent future fiat money since they have a variable price. They may be used to launder other monies, but that does not mean they can be called a proxy. They are only a medium of exchange that allows for more anonymous transactions.

Correct. Gold is not current a widely accepted medium of indirect exchange.

This whole thread, as far as researching and doing your homework, has gone down the poop shoot.

Huh?

Fine, but the idea that exchanges made in gold are proxy exchanges for dollars or any other sort of fiat doesn’t follow from this. It only seems like that is the case because any legal material exchange is required to be evaluated in dollars and reported to the IRS.

Even absent IRS and legal tender laws it will take time for economic calculation and accounting calculations to move away from one currency to another. As exchange ratio’s begin to dwindle in one currency higher frequency exchange ratio’s occur in various other candidate currencies.

All of this was explained a while ago when I summarized the regression theorem.