Is Peak Oil a Tragedy of the Commons?

I do not think that there is a large amount of oil to still be found. They are already drilling 15000feet under the sea floor in search of oil. Why would they be going to such lengths if they could easily just drill for oil or use the 7 trillion barrels of oil shale?

You do realize that the best geology off the US coast is off-limits to drilling don’t you?

The American Federal Bureacracy has been putting land off limits to drilling and exploration for up to 40 years now.

The reason that BP was drilling in such deep water is that the US GOVERNMENT will not let them drill in shallower water.

Not because there is no oil there, but because it is BLOCKED.

ANWR is only one of the most obvious examples.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2008/07/20/44740/drilling-in-anwr-remains-off-limits.html

Yes. That is not some theory, that is what we are doing right now. Reserves are growing faster than we consume oil. This ‘advanced oil finding technology’ is essentially to drill a hole and look whether there’s any oil down there. People think they have computer models that tell them where all the oil on the planet is, but that’s way overestimating their abilities. They have computer models to make some educated guesses, but basically nobody has a clue how much oil there is. As for example Mukluk, a one-and-a-half billion Dollar dry hole in Alaska, should illustrate. 11 oil companies invested the GDP of Suriname and came up with nothing. That wasn’t with 1920’s technology either, that was in the 80’s.

The sea is like 70% of the earths surface. Assuming that oil is distributed roughly equally, this simple calculation tells us that we can at most access 30% of the oil on land. But since a lot of land area is deserts, arctic, mountains or otherwise inaccessible, we’re probably just scratching at 10% most easily accessible oil on the planet.

Also the high sea is where you go to find oil that authoritarian governments won’t expropriate from you. Which is a political problem.

Oil exploration is largely a government enterprise today. 80% of the worlds oil supply is in the hands of governments. Like any cartel with control over the market, they have no interest in finding more oil because that only drives down the price. In fact their main concern is suppressing new finds. As Redmond mentions, new oil drilling in the US has mostly been banned by established oil interests and their environmentalist lackeys.

Known extractable reserves are not finite, since we’re obviously adding to them. The amount of stuff on the planet is of course finite, but you can not apply that to specific resources. How much oil there is depends on what you are counting as oil. Oil comes in a range of variations from light crude to mud with tar in it. What of that do we consider “oil reserves”? How much oil there is depends on technology, market price and demand. That’s why it doesn’t really make sense to speak of oil as being finite.

Also I hear that thermal depolymerization is working and even financially viable.

We did find oil wells with another 100 billion barrels in the last three years. (85 million barrels a day times 365 days times 3 years = roughly 100 billion barrels). We did use up 100 billion barrels in that time and still added oil to our reserves, which means we must have found that much new oil. Oil isn’t finite so it makes no sense to ask how much we “have left” or when it will run out. It will never run out. We will stop using oil when better technologies (nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, cold fusion, helium from the moon) become cheaper than oil.

In theory…

What if the reason the United States refuses to access it’s own oil is to effectively drain the Middle East of it’s resources. Once peak middle-east oil has been surpassed and resources dwindle, deregulation in the US would allow for a significant increase in production.

The long term result being Middle East goes broke again and depends on the U.S. for both food and energy.

I’d be careful calling it a tragedy of the commons. Most people who use the commons argument are setting up the framework for government control of what they’re claiming to be a publicly-held resource, like oil, health care, energy, or really any kind of natural resource. The argument typically has two components: 1) there’s a resource that’s being diminished in value through the public use of it, and 2) since the public generally doesn’t believe they should be responsible for maintaining the value of the resource (no single raindrop believes it is responsible for the flood…), government intervention is necessary. Maybe it’s just me, but I can’t see either of these in peak oil, so I think it’s a stretch, and you’re likely dealing with someone who simply believes in big government and the commons argument is a useful way to achieve that.

Oh, and on the subject of conservation of natural resources…

I don’t mind some level-headed resource management, but when it becomes impossible to use a resource because of its conservation, then it should no longer be called a “resource”. It’s only a resource if you get to use it.

It seems to me, then, according to that graph, that we ought to be even less concerned about peak oil as it is more right skewed than proponents have argued, since they hypothesize a completely normal curve. Furthermore, isn’t much of the problem today caused by restricted supply instead of natural declines in production?

Oh, and on the subject of conservation of natural resources…

I don’t mind some level-headed resource management, but when it becomes impossible to use a resource because of its conservation, then it should no longer be called a “resource”. It’s only a resource if you get to use it.

That conservation is best handled by the market. Why do we need the government to do something that the market does better?

I agree with imapoose666 we need to dig for electronic.

It is not a tragedy of commons.

The owners of oil wells and people that look for oil have incentives to economize.

The price of oil on the market establish the cost-effective strategies for exploration of current reserves and expansion of knowledge, either of oil deposits or new technologies helping make better use of oil.