Jevon's Paradox?

[gotlucky]

@Jackson LaRose

LOL, no. My epistemological skepticism has been hashed out here in the past. But this seems like a goofy escape hatch into utopianianism. Imean, who knows? Maybe Jesus and Krishna will head on down and turn the world into a swingin’ luau! We must presuppose some constants to have any sort of discussion, so how about it? This just seems like a big red herring.

Well, first I’d like to say that Autolykos made a great post right above. There really are alternative energy sources to natural gas (nuclear and solar come to mind), and as Autolykos showed, theoretically we could supply current human needs with solar power. But at what cost? That is the important point. Solar power is simply too expensive with the current technology. As there are advances in knowledge and technology, solar power will probably continue to get cheaper. I don’t know how much cheaper, but surely it won’t remain as expensive as it is now forever?

Second, I’d like to quote a little bit from Michael Crichton’s lecture Aliens Cause Global Warming. I know that the main subject is off topic, but what I am about to quote is not:

Let’s think back to people in 1900 in, say, New York. If they worried about people in 2000, what

would they worry about? Probably: Where would people get enough horses? And what would
they do about all the horseshit? Horse pollution was bad in 1900, think how much worse it would
be a century later, with so many more people riding horses?

But of course, within a few years, nobody rode horses except for sport. And in 2000, France was
getting 80% its power from an energy source that was unknown in 1900. Germany, Switzerland,
Belgium and Japan were getting more than 30% from this source, unknown in 1900. Remember,
people in 1900 didn’t know what an atom was. They didn’t know its structure. They also didn’t
know what a radio was, or an airport, or a movie, or a television, or a computer, or a cell phone,
or a jet, an antibiotic, a rocket, a satellite, an MRI, ICU, IUD, IBM, IRA, ERA, EEG, EPA, IRS,
DOD, PCP, HTML, internet, interferon, instant replay, remote sensing, remote control, speed
dialing, gene therapy, gene splicing, genes, spot welding, heat-seeking, bipolar, prozac, leotards,
lap dancing, email, tape recorder, CDs, airbags, plastic explosive, plastic, robots, cars,
liposuction, transduction, superconduction, dish antennas, step aerobics, smoothies, twelve-step,
ultrasound, nylon, rayon, teflon, fiber optics, carpal tunnel, laser surgery, laparoscopy, corneal
transplant, kidney transplant, AIDS. None of this would have meant anything to a person in the
year 1900. They wouldn’t know what you are talking about.

Now. You tell me you can predict the world of 2100. Tell me it’s even worth thinking about. Our
models just carry the present into the future. They’re bound to be wrong. Everybody who gives a
moment’s thought knows it.

So, I understand that you might like to straw man my position and talk about Jesus fixing the world’s problems, but that’s not really what I’m getting at, which is quite clear in the quote above.