Permanent Keynesian Refutation Thread

More products, in and of itself, does not translate into more wealth. Stealing $2billion from Bill Gates and paying 20,000 artists to make silly wood-carved figurines that no one wants does not increase wealth.

Red herring. I gave a scenario where the people did produce what other people wanted.

One surly Bill Gates, 20,000 happily employed wood-carvers, and 20,000 figurines does not make the world a wealthier place, even though 20,000 > 1. Value is only subjective, which makes it impossible to aggregate into an objective quantifiable measure.

Then what exactly is Hazlitt trying to demonstrate? Is he not saying that his recommendations would do the greatest good for the greatest number? What criteria should I be using to evaluate Hazlitt’s claims?

How so? It decreases war, eliminating broken window.

Well, in Scenario 2, breaking a window eliminates a person dying. It’s also possible that breaking a window can prevent another window from breaking.

Wait, there are numbered scenarios? I missed something…

FOTH, value is subjective. Ponder. Give it time to simmer. Your inability to distinguish between (1) valuation of things for yourself (eating vs, overeating) and (2) valuation of things in someone else’s stead (destroying just enough of other people’s limbs and property, but not more than that) is bordering on sociopathic.

You have it backwards. I am not valuing any of these scenarios. Quit saying that I personally want these things to happen. I am, in fact, looking at other people’s values. I am trying to see if breaking a window can ever lead to the satisfaction of the majority’s desires. If you want to call them sociopaths (even though they didn’t break the window) that’s fine. But it has nothing to do with my desires.

A new window which was not needed. A window which took time out of the broken window guy’s life which he could have spent writing a book, fixing his house, living with his family (and there is no “new life” for him). A new window which created an artificial need for new window fixers who waste time learning how to fix windows which are not really needed.

I agree that it harms the baker. I am merely saying the benefit to the tailor and the glazier is greater than if it hadn’t been broken (i.e. it’s better for two out of three people). I cannot say whether a new window was needed or not because that is a subjective evaluation. And obviously the window fixer does not think of the time as wasted since he voluntarily agrees to it. Of course he would’ve preferred the baker to simply give him the money without doing anything.

Wait, there are numbered scenarios? I missed something…

Yes, in The Broken Window post on the previous page.

Why? Did they ask you to value their values for them?

Why? Why do you value the satisfaction of the majority’s desires? How do you measure the satisfaction of the majority’s desires? How do you establish that any of your projects is actually achieving what you think it is? Ponder the subjectivity of values some more.

we have a worker/owner who decides facebook on his computer is not a “window” [=useful object] for him, but a distraction. nothing was physically broken, either. He can always unblock it. nothing to do with Hazlitt’s story. but the main point to grasp is the distinction in the next paragraph.

you cannot call net improvement of an asset “breaking”. If i tear down a shanty to have room to build the taj mahal, that has nothing to do with the broken window fallacy. the b.w. fallacy is thinking that net destruction stimulates the economy, because work is needed to get back to square one. Hazlitt is pointing out that such reasoning is fallacious.

as for your posts, note that we are addressing them seriously.

Why? Did they ask you to value their values for them?

How am I valueing their values? I seek only to describe their values. My approach is one akin to that of a pollster. I am not saying that we need to follow the wishes for the majority, but rather I am asking, “what are the wishes of the majority?”

Why? Why do you value the satisfaction of the majority’s desires? How do you measure the satisfaction of the majority’s desires? How do you establish that any of your projects is actually achieving what you think it is? Ponder the subjectivity of values some more.

You claim that I can’t know someone else’s values, and yet you claim to know mine!

And why are you questioning me on this and not Hazlitt? After all he says:

Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other study known to man. This is no accident. The inherent difficulties of the subject would be great enough in any case, but they are multiplied a thousandfold by a factor that is insignificant in, say, physics, mathematics or medicine-the special pleading of selfish interests. While every group has certain economic interests identical with those of all groups, every group has also, as we shall see, interests antagonistic to those of all other groups. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.

I am merely questioning Hazlitt on the very terms which he asserts. How can one claim to be an economist if he doesn’t seek to measure other people’s desires? What is economics concerned with if not that? Hazlitt summarizes his lesson thusly:

The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

What effects is he talking about? Whatever those effects are, I want to look at them. Hazlitt makes claims such as, “this suit will never be made if this window is broken.” I’ve shown that such a claim is not necessarily true.

we have a worker/owner who decides facebook on his computer is not a “window” [=useful object] for him, but a distraction. nothing was physically broken, either. He can always unblock it. nothing to do with Hazlitt’s story. but the main point to grasp is the distinction in the next paragraph.

Hazlitt’s stated problem with the broken window example is that it would produce one less suit. The Facebook analogy has the same result. The person breaking the window also decides that it isn’t useful for him. But if you really have a problem with this particular example, please address the squatter one, which I think is closest to the broken window analogy.

you cannot call net improvement of an asset “breaking”. If i tear down a shanty to have room to build the taj mahal, that has nothing to do with the broken window fallacy.

Tearing down a shanty is not improving an existing asset. It is destroying an old one and building a new one. Suppose the baker had an old ugly window and someone else broke it, resulting in the baker buying a new window that draws in more customers. Would you admit that breaking someone elses window could meet my two criteria in this case?

the b.w. fallacy is thinking that net destruction stimulates the economy, because work is needed to get back to square one. Hazlitt is pointing out that such reasoning is fallacious.

What do you mean by net destruction though? At what point are you measuring the destruction? After World War II, more houses were built than destroyed (I think). Doesn’t my first scenario result in net production and not net destruction? Again, I don’t mean to claim that destruction always results in net production. If the baker didn’t have any money and no one wanted to buy his goods, then the result would indeed be one of net destruction.

But anyway, let’s move on. Maybe we’ll find some more specific issues to evaluate.

as for your posts, note that we are addressing them seriously.

I know you are. I respect your viewpoint. I’m also glad you recommended me this book as it seems to be a good introduction to the Austrian position. I just think that you either don’t understand me or you are wrong. Are you accusing me of not being serious? Of trolling? I’ve dedicated a lot of my time to writing what I think are very detailed and thorough posts. If there is a better way for me to get my point across, please let me know.

I am merely questioning Hazlitt on the very terms which he asserts. How can one claim to be an economist if he doesn’t seek to measure other people’s desires? What is economics concerned with if not that? Hazlitt summarizes his lesson thusly:

Oh, I should have also added these quotes (for some reason this thread doesn’t allow the editing of posts):

Those fallacies all stem from one of two central fallacies, or both: that of looking only at the immediate consequences of an act or proposal, and that of looking at the consequences only for a particular group to the neglect of other groups.

[Looking only at the long terms] resulted in a certain callousness toward the fate of groups that were immediately hurt by policies or developments which proved to be beneficial on net balance and in the long run.

The most frequent fallacy by far today, the fallacy that emerges again and again in nearly every conversation that touches on economic affairs, the error of a thousand political speeches, the central sophism of the new economics, is to concentrate on the short-run effects of policies on special groups and to ignore or belittle the long-run effects on the community as a whole

Public Works Mean Taxes

http://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/chap04p1.html

In this sub-lesson Hazlitt argues that the government is incapable of creating net jobs, that government spending is always a zero sum game (at best). At first, I thought I might actually end up agreeing with this section. That was when I thought Hazlitt might argue that government has shown itself to be incapable of solving the unemployment problem. But no, Hazlitt’s argument is not so much against the actual practices of government as it is against the idea the such taxation and spending cannot even theoretically meet the two criteria: (1) increase the number of desired products, (2) produce a situation that the majority would choose over the alternative.

In order to counter Hazlitt’s claim, we must acknowledge three facts: (1) there exists idle laborers who wish to work if they can get paid, (2) there exists idle resources capable of producing products, and (3) these products would be desired by people.

Hazlitt contends that all government spending is necessarily taxation. He maintains that the government cannot produce anything without first taking something away from someone else. While this may generally be the way the state operates (or appears to operate), I am not sure it is necessarily true. All I need to do is provide one example to debunk this idea.

I don’t think anyone would contest that there are currently a very large number of unemployed people who wish to have work (1). There exists idle oil reserves beneath the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (2). Oil is desired by people (3).

The government can employ these people to drill for oil. It can pay them by simply printing money equal to the market value of the oil. It can then either give the oil to the taxpayers at no charge or sell it to them. Printing money in this case should not contribute to inflation because the new money is simply representing the value of the new commodities. Ultimately, the nonworkers receive the oil from the workers, while the workers (in exchanging their money) receive commodities of equal value from the nonworkers. Of course the workers might receive goods from people who don’t actually receive oil. But this is true of any monetary system. And of course a good question would be, “who benefits from the oil?” Hazlitt seems to imply (correct me if I’m wrong) that it can’t possibly be the majority. But if this is necessarily true, then it seems like it would also be true of any entrepreneurial activity, which I doubt Hazlitt would claim. If, on the other hand, he is merely claiming that government spending doesn’t necessarily lead to more wealth, then I would agree.

Let’s look at a few more of his arguments:

For every dollar that is spent on the bridge a dollar will be taken away from taxpayers. If the bridge costs $10 million the taxpayers will lose $10 million. They will have that much taken away from them which they would otherwise have spent on the things they needed most.

This seems reasonable if you don’t think too much about it. I mean, if I spend $10 million on a bridge, then I will surely lose $10 million. But if you look closely, you’ll note that Hazlitt uses a particular category. He says taxpayers will lose $10 million*.* By taxpayers, I assume he means anyone who pays taxes. By losing $10 million, I assume he means taxpayers as a group will have $10 million less than before the bridge was built. But who are they paying the $10 million to? Are not the workers also part of the taxpayer group? Is it not true that the money could still be spent on “things they needed most”? Hazlitt’s statement is misleading at best and false at worst. He concludes:

Therefore, for every public job created by the bridge project a private job has been destroyed somewhere else ...They are the jobs destroyed by the $10 million taken from the taxpayers.

If private spending of money is all that is necessary to create jobs, then government spending can hardly prevent job creation, because money is very rarely in government hands. As soon as the government spends money, that money is in private hands and thus can do anything it could have done before it was taxed. On the other hand, we could claim that it is the government’s holding of money that reduces jobs. But then this would mean that the private holding of money also increases unemployment. And isn’t that in fact the Keynesian position? Don’t they claim that unemployment is due to too much savings?

But if they have taught themselves to look for indirect as well as direct consequences they can once more see in the eye of imagination the possibilities that have never been allowed to come into existence. They can see the unbuilt homes, the unmade cars and washing machines, the unmade dresses and coats, perhaps the ungrown and unsold foodstuffs. To see these uncreated things requires a kind of imagination that not many people have. We can think of these nonexistent objects once, perhaps, but we cannot keep them before our minds as we can the bridge that we pass every working day. What has happened is merely that one thing has been created instead of others.

Again, Hazlitt makes the mistake that somehow people cannot immediately buy these things when the money reenters the economy through wages. He wants to claim that the spending of money is what brings things into being, but then he claims that the private sector’s power to bring things into being has been somehow diminished even though their ability to spend has not.

At most, it seems to me, Hazlitt can claim that the time spent by labor was lost on these supposedly undesired projects. But if we take into account the fact that many people remain unemployed, even that seems to be a stretch.

Each individual’s wishes/preferences are revealed through his/her voluntary action (including exchanges with others). Individual wishes/preferences/values are not amenable to summation/aggregation. You are seeking something which does not exist.

I did no such thing.

No you are not. You are purposefully misrepresenting Hazlitt and quoting him out of context which (again) makes me question your motives in this thread. The Broken Window uncovers a fallacy. It simply states that destruction/war/catastrophy can not create wealth. It is not just an example concluding that “this suit will never be made if this window is broken”. You keep stating how any outcome (destructive, aggressive, etc.) creates Group A that benefits, and Group B that loses from it, but all in all, we’re all even as society, humanity, majority. Thus, any outcome/scenario is just a different distribution of matter and energy in this universe. Then you must agree that by killing you I may not necessarily be decreasing wealth, depending on the amount of joy and entertainment such action may provide me (and whoever else may be watching)! As long as the majority is better off, right?

You keep saying how your examples/schemes are not symptomatic, but I will keep pointing out that there is something very dysfunctional in your inability to distinguish between voluntary and coercive/aggressive human action; between individual subjective preferences/values and objective your (‘objective’?) measures of wealth and wellbeing of others.

Economics is a value-free science. Austrian Economics suggests the best means for a given end. It doesn’t say anything about the ends themselves.

Good work. You proved that a suit may still be made even when a window is broken. The government could just print some money and pay someone unemployed to make the suit, which wouldn’t even cause inflation because the printed money would equal the value of the new suit. Or the government could just kill someone random on the street and give his suit to the baker. Got it. An utter destruction of Hazlitt’s argument.

I got this deja vu feeling. I may not last too much longer in this discussion with you.

anybody know much about Argentina? Clearly this artical is full of fail.

have they countered all of that intervention with freeing up the eonomy in other areas?

Meh… Textbook Keynesian, roaring, liquored-up, neighbourhood party (boom) before the inevitable hangover (bust) strikes – on someone’s else’s watch, of course. Same fallacies, same AE explanations.

No One Cries for Argentina Embracing 25% Inflation of Fernandez

"Zheng, 35, says he has to change prices in his stores daily as suppliers send him new lists, with increases on some products ranging from 5 percent a month to as much as 5 or 10 percent in a single week.

Accelerating spending by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government is stoking prices, economists say. Outlays on everything from highway construction to pensions climbed 37 percent last year from 2009 – and increased 39 percent in January of this year alone. Fernandez’s largesse is made possible in large part by the global commodities boom.

Argentina’s 40 million people are spending, too – as a way to protect themselves from rising prices. They’re buying everything from flat-screen televisions to cars and even property. Sales of such goods as home appliances, toys and clothing soared 39.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the biggest increase for that month since at least 1998. Auto sales gained 43.3 percent in unit terms, the most since 2004.

Prices – and wages – have been rising so fast that in November and December, the Central Bank of Argentina was unable to print enough money to meet the demand for cash from consumers and companies trying to cover year-end salaries and bonuses. As Argentines lined up at empty ATMs in the middle of a heat wave, the central bank took the unprecedented step of hiring Brazil’s mint to crank out 160 million 100-Argentine-peso notes, so that there would be enough cash for individuals eager to buy holiday gifts and start their summer vacations.

“If we have an inflation rate of 25 percent to 30 percent, that means an important monetary expansion,” says Roque Fernandez, a former president of the central bank and an economy minister in the 1990s. “What we didn’t know until then was that there were problems with issuing that amount of bills.”

Inflation is a result of companies being unable to meet consumer demand and should be resolved by boosting loans for production, Mercedes Marco del Pont, the current central bank president, says. She plans to increase the money supply by 28 percent this year to accommodate economic growth, a move she says won’t affect inflation.

“The price problem doesn’t have monetary roots,” the Yale University-educated central banker, 51, says. “The conditions that could cause inflation to accelerate don’t exist in Argentina.”

In fact, Marco del Pont says, the global economic slump of the past few years has shown how central bank intervention can play a role in developing the country’s economy. “The bank has a goal of stability not only in the financial system but also in the real economy,” she says."

Heck of a job, ladies!

Each individual’s wishes/preferences are revealed through his/her voluntary action (including exchanges with others). Individual wishes/preferences/values are not amenable to summation/aggregation. You are seeking something which does not exist.

What do you mean by summation/aggregation? I am saying that each individual could theoretically be told what the result of a given action would be. The individuals would then be asked which result they would prefer. So it seems quite possible to me to say that a majority of individuals would prefer action A over action B. Imagine you are going out one night with four other friends. How might you decide where to go? Could you not poll your friends to find out where they would like to go? I am not saying this is the best method for deciding something, but merely that it is a possible one. Additionally, businesses must predict what consumers want in order to be successful. So I do not see how I am seeking something that does not exist.

The Broken Window uncovers a fallacy. It simply states that destruction/war/catastrophy can not create wealth.

Could you define wealth please? How do you determine if something creates wealth?

It is not just an example concluding that “this suit will never be made if this window is broken”.

But that seems to be his evidence that it doesn’t create wealth.

You keep stating how any outcome (destructive, aggressive, etc.) creates Group A that benefits, and Group B that loses from it, but all in all, we’re all even as society, humanity, majority. Thus, any outcome/scenario is just a different distribution of matter and energy in this universe.

If that is true, then it would apply to any action, whether state or private. And I am not denying that one group loses and another gains. In fact, this is what Hazlitt claims the Keynesians believe. Hazlitt, on the other hand states that there are actions that benefit everyone:

While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups.

What I am looking at is whether a greater number can benefit while a lesser number loses. I am not saying that the sum of the larger group is greater than the loss to the second group–that is, that one group’s amount of pleasure somehow makes up for the other’s amount of pain.

You keep saying how your examples/schemes are not symptomatic, but I will keep pointing out that there is something very dysfunctional in your inability to distinguish between voluntary and coercive/aggressive human action;

Whether something is voluntary of not is a matter of perspective. The destruction of the house the squatter lived in was voluntary on the owner’s part but involuntary on the squatter’s part. The breaking of the window was voluntary on the part of the person breaking the window, but involuntary on the part of the baker. So the difference between state and private actions is not one of being voluntary vs. involuntary.

between individual subjective preferences/values and objective your (‘objective’?) measures of wealth and wellbeing of others.

Once someone states their preference, it becomes something objectively measurable–that is, I am measuring whether they say they prefer it.

Economics is a value-free science. Austrian Economics suggests the best means for a given end. It doesn’t say anything about the ends themselves.

And this is exactly what I am saying as well. I am looking at what ends a particular action results in. In Scenario 1, we can say that breaking a window is the best means to achieving as an end the two criteria that I outlined. Again, I do not mean to value this end. I merely wish to show that this means would be the best action to take if one wishes to meet this end.

Good work. You proved that a suit may still be made even when a window is broken. The government could just print some money and pay someone unemployed to make the suit, which wouldn’t even cause inflation because the printed money would equal the value of the new suit. Or the government could just kill someone random on the street and give his suit to the baker. Got it. An utter destruction of Hazlitt’s argument.

I think we might agree more than you think. I get the feeling that you are trying to argue against my points because you think you know where I am trying to go with them. You think that once you concede them, I am going to say “aha, so we should break windows!” But I am only making descriptive points, and acknowledging them does not entail any specific action. You cannot go from an is to an ought. If you want to criticize them, please stick to the is aspect.

Yes, voluntary/free action/exchange is the only mean toward the end of increased satisfaction (improvement of situation) of everyone involved. By definition, each party in a voluntary exchange is better off after the exchange then it was before it, otherwise the voluntary exchange would not have occured. This is how everyone’s (subjectively and individually valued) wealth after the exchange becomes larger then the wealth before the exchange.

Sure, everything is a matter of perspective. The rape was voluntary on the part of the rapist, but involuntary on the part of the raped. The murder was voluntary on the part of the killer, but involuntary on the part of the killed. Choose your perspective (means) carefully, as it determines whether you will get to your desired end. The Austrian School teaches that only a very narrow realm of perspectives (means) lead to my end of a society of (subjectively, individually perceived) material abundance, satisfaction, and individual freedom.

Just like everyone adores and prefers Kim Jong Il in North Korea, I’m sure. Who annointed you as the benevolent pollster extraordinaire?

Yes, I already pointed out your sociopathic ends before. The productive segment of humanity (the one with life/freedom/flourish-affirming ends) can (and does) do without them.

I think you have no idea of what I’m talking about.

There is rape and murder. There ought to be less of it if one’s end is a society of (subjectively, individually perceived) material abundance, satisfaction, and individual freedom.

Perhaps it’s time for you to tackle Mises’ “Human Action”.

Yes, voluntary/free action/exchange is the only mean toward the end of increased satisfaction (improvement of situation) of everyone involved. By definition, each party in a voluntary exchange is better off after the exchange then it was before it, otherwise the voluntary exchange would not have occured. This is how everyone’s (subjectively and individually valued) wealth after the exchange becomes larger then the wealth before the exchange.

I disagree that eveyone is necessarily better off than they were before. Rather I would say that they are better off than if they had not made the choice. For example, suppose Person A holds up a gun to Person B and asks Person B to give him all her money. Person B then voluntarily gives Person A all of her money. But this does not mean that Person B is better off then she was before. It means that she thinks she would be better off than if she didn’t give him all of her money.

The Austrian School teaches that only a very narrow realm of perspectives (means) lead to my end of a society of (subjectively, individually perceived) material abundance, satisfaction, and individual freedom.

I’m not sure I follow. Could you elaborate on this more? Is this something you feel I am contradicting?

Just like everyone adores and prefers Kim Jong Il in North Korea, I’m sure. Who annointed you as the benevolent pollster extraordinaire?

Well, if we are going to use things like the broken window example where everything we make up for the example is true for the example, then it doesn’t make sense to question my ability to evaluate the people’s “true” values since I determine them. If Hazlitt would have simply questioned the govenment’s ability to determine people’s values, then I would be much more supportive of his position. And to counter your example, I could simply say that it is wrong to oppose Kim Jong Il on the grounds that he harms his people because one would have to be a "benevolent pollster extraordinaire." It works both ways.

Yes, I already pointed out your sociopathic ends before. The productive segment of humanity (the one with life/freedom/flourish-affirming ends) can (and does) do without them.

And who does this productive segment include? Does it include the one that destroys the squatter’s house?

There is rape and murder. There ought to be less of it if one’s end is a society of (subjectively, individually perceived) material abundance, satisfaction, and individual freedom.

Could you lay this out in more detail, perhaps with a syllogism? If one wants to rape and murder, then how does refraining from it lead to (subjectively) greater abundance, satisfaction, and individual freedom?

I understand that many people here use definitions radically different from the mainstream. Perhaps this is where our disagreements lie.

Perhaps it’s time for you to tackle Mises’ “Human Action”.

On my list. I have to finish Economics in One Lesson first.

I disagree that eveyone is necessarily better off than they were before. Rather I would say that they are better off than if they had not made the choice. For example, suppose Person A holds up a gun to Person B and asks Person B to give him all her money. Person B then voluntarily gives Person A all of her money. But this does not mean that Person B is better off then she was before. It means that she thinks she would be better off than if she didn’t give him all of her money.

Or I suppose she is better off in the sense that she is no longer in a threatening situation. But the conditions of exhange can never arise voluntary on both sides. One must ultimately initiate conversation without the other person’s consent.

I said voluntary. I think we’ve distilled this down to your main problem/issue. There definitely are perspectives according to which the above exchange could be classified as “voluntary”. What I (and the Austrian School) claim/show is that such a perspective would be outside the realm of appropriate means towards the end of a society of abundance, satisfaction, and freedom.

You are contradicting it by suggesting that there exist other means (or perspectives that you proposed before), outside of this realm, that could also lead towards the above mentioned end.

The expositon of the Broken Window fallacy (and many other socialistic, Keynesian, or mainstream fallacies) simply uncovers the unseen negative (coercive, destructive, aggressive) consequences of what, on the surface, seems to be a win-win proposition for everyone involved. One such fallacy is the objectivity of values. Nearly every coercive, aggressive, non-voluntary proposal/scheme appeals to some sort of objective calculation/quantification/summation of values which it claims to be “improving”. Basically, the road to hell is, indeed, paved with good intentions.

Austrians question both the government’s ability to determine people’s values (Socialst Calculation Problem) and its motives about increasing them (Human Action).

You completely missed my point. People don’t value what they tell you that they value. They value what they reveal through voluntary action. The free market is the only real benevolent pollster extraordinaire.

It includes the ones with the perspective that the house is not, in fact, the squatter’s.

Well, for one, both the rapist and the raped could be making one suit each, instead. Or if everyone was raping, murdering, being raped, or being murdered then there’d be no one left to make any suits so they’d all have to be doing it naked. (/sarcasm)