Just watch now as the state-allied intelligentsia goes to work, first with the media, whom will poo-poo and ridicule the effort if they cannot ignore, or perhaps brand it a racist movement, and then from the intellectuals who will declare it unconstitutional and thus not worth thinking about.
If a state actually tried it, they’d be probably sued first by the feds, where it would eventually go to the Supreme Court, who would undoubtedly kick the effort in the teeth and say states cannot secede. As they must.
So, there’s the next 5 - 10 years laid out for you, should a secession effort ever gather steam, which is unlikely in the first place.
That could lead to a much larger long-term secessionist movement ultimately, but the cultural division between fed and state would have to become much stronger, and that could take a generation.
At that point, with such a cultural change, you could envision a USSR-style walk away from the Fed by the state governors, splitting the US into three major parts, the Noreast, the middle reds, and the west-coast.
It’s hard to say if that would be more likely than outright civil war. Probably any president in office would not want to be the guy who let the union dissolve on his watch, presidents are bastards like that, so perhaps war is inevitable.
But it would have to be because of going off the fiscal cliff one too many times and severe depression and inflation and a dozen other pressures, and it won’t be libertarians running the opposition either, so we can’t expect events to redound to our favor really :\
So, again I conclude, onward to a seastead.