I don’t know what being “core libertarian” has anything to do with being a Ron Paul supporter, but I guess we’ll see. You’re looking at the results of <1000 people to determine nationwide opinion, and you’re looking at them now, in the current field.
Granted Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t exactly representations of the whole country either, but he was over 20% of actual voters (or perhaps I should say tallied votes) in those areas…and the whole thing about Paul is, once someone’s in, they’re in. And in general, once they hear the message, they’re in. Hell, even a simple brochure is enough to convert people.
So if we’re talking about the total percentage of voters who would vote for Paul if he were to run 3rd party, that’s a tough call…but there’s polls for that too.
And that was a month ago…before any primaries. The more people hear from Ron Paul, the better he does. This is the largest part of the reason I’m becoming more and more convinced Paul is the only one who can beat Obama.
Seriously, just think about it. Plasticman Mitt Romney in presidential debates against President Barack Obama. I’m sorry, I don’t care how “electable” you think he is or how “presidential” he looks. He wouldn’t bring any Democrats, and Independents would have a really hard time. And Obama would chew him up in debates. Really, just picture it. And this is after a billion dollars in advertising takes the largest telescope in the world, and reverses the lenses to shine the sun’s light down through the largest microscope in the world, onto Willard “Mitt” Romney’s slick smiley, khaki-wearing, political nepotist, flip-flopping, literally say anything to get elected life.
I don’t care how bad things are, people will be scared enough to stick with Obama because if nothing else “at least we know what we’re getting”. If local school districts can make regular people afraid of vouchers, imagine what Barack Obama and the Democrats could do with a billion dollars and an opponant like Mitt Romney.
Why do you think he’s been spending so much time attacking Obama throughout this whole process? Yes, part of it is good strategy because he’s always had decent numbers compared to his competitors and hasn’t needed to engage them (much). But another large part of it is because he knows he has an uphill battle in differentiating himself from Obama. That’s all he ever talks about is “this president has been a failure”…“I will repeal Obamacare”. “President Obama hasn’t done anything right. I know the private sector. I know how to create jobs. Did I mention I would repeal Obamacare?”
He knows good and well in the world of politics, he may as well be the brainchild of Obamacare. Not only did Obama say he looked to Romney’s plan, but Romney even said he was happy to hear it. Yes, there are a ton of people who are all about “anyone but Obama”. But there’s plenty of Democrats out there who are still “anyone but the Republicans”. And there are Independents who, without Ron Paul, could go either way.
Now picture presidential debates, Barack Obama versus Ron Paul. It’s like two different playing fields. Obama’s rhetoric would not be able to stand up to Paul’s straight talk. You get the Democrat up there trying to defend statism and the last four years, and then you have Ron Paul…with a bulletproof voting record, and a willingness to talk in actual specifics. No one, not even Democrats doubt he would end the wars and bring the troops home. And if you recall, Obama was partially elected as the “peace” candidate. He was the guy “opposed from the start.” (Note that second video is on his official 2008 campaign channel). He was “the transparent government” candidate. He was the “eliminate wasteful programs” and “cut deficit” candidate.
He has no leg to stand on. I personally would get such pleasure out of watching Paul/Obama debates. Paul would take all the Independents, and even some Democrats. And remember…virtually all the Republicans are “anyone but Obama”. That’s their number one priority. That means, in Obama vs. Paul, they’re all voting for Paul.
That should be enough right there. Paul is the GOP nominee, all Republicans vote for Paul. Automatically. But then you throw in all his supporters outside the Republican Party, and the people who otherwise wouldn’t bother voting.
I’m telling you. I can’t say Romney would lose for sure…because things will be pretty bad, and there will be a lot of folks looking for “change” again…but I wouldn’t be making any bets on that race I can tell you for sure. Paul vs. Obama…I don’t even think there’s a question. A second President Ronald, who ran on conservative principles, who everyone said was too old and unelectable. He’s already polling within the margin of error of defeating Obama.