Dear Smiling Dave:
I have really enjoyed your comments, and I will enjoy discussing them with you.
After the American revolution, the USA instituted extremely high import tariffs to encourage the industrialization of the USA, and it was successful in establishing a positive balance of trade, accumulating Gold reserves, creating a manufacturing base with industrial jobs, creating a technical data base, and making the USA independent from England for technology.
My knowledge of economic history is really weak, any one have some info on this fantastic success of the mercantilism? Read the Federalist Paper #42.
We must create a positive balance of trade by any means possible.
Maybe US citizens have already thrown out the baby with the bath when the USA de-industrialized and destroyed our ability to generate wealth via manufacturing products for foreign trade.
I agree that high import tariffs would end trade, but this would stop the flow of wealth and title to US assets to foreign nations. This will give the USA a chance to save the assets that are left and use these assets to finance re-industrialization.
Negative Foreign Trade Balance and Deficit Government Spending will destroy the purchasing power of the US dollar. I also agree that this is a great problem, because US citizens want free government payments such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, unemployment, etc. with borrowed money from industrial nations. Cutting of government spending will cause people to object.
Without import tariffs, most all products will continue to be available for less US dollars if they are manufactured in foreign countries where labor and environmental costs are less, than if they arte made in the USA. We need to reverse the Negative Foreign Trade Balance, or the purchasing value of the US dollar will soon go to nothing and then the US economy will self destruct.
The US labor force has no future without high import tariffs to prohibit foreign imported products. You and I disagree. I believe that US citizens will live the lifestyle of peasants in Asia if they have to reduce their pay expectations to meet the wage rates paid in Asian factories.
You make it sound like something bad, smile. But seriously, say they revolt. Now what? The basic economic q’s still have to be addressed.
The US citizen might have no option except to revolt and overthrow the US government. I believe that this would be a bad thing.
If any future US revolution to overthrow the US government occurs (maybe to change the economic situation), food, fuel, water, sanitation, medicine, and other necessities to support the population will not exist after the revolutionary hostilities start. Chaos and total lawlessness will prevail during and long after any US revolution.
Only the very meanest and the most evil will survive in this climate. We will have then totally destroyed our civilization. US Citizens will have to comply with the will of any and every armed person that we encounter.
Will all of the city residents starve after a revolution? Most of the US urban population is not knowledgeable enough to live off of the land anymore. The city dwellers might foray into the country, kill the farmers, and steal the farmer’s food to feed their own families. Food might become more valuable than freshly printed paper US dollars.
If any future US revolution to overthrow the US government is successful and occurs for some reason, will foreigners hire the unemployed US military (and maybe various city policemen) to keep the US population under control, or to regain control, and/or to re-establish law & order after an economic collapse and the resultant civil unrest?
After the US economy is totally and completely destroyed by both political parties and when the vast majority are unemployed with no prospects for future employment, and when the citizens have no confidence in the government, the US citizens might listen to a charismatic politician who will promise the nation into a new government (German Reich) that will correct all of the real and imagined injustices that are hurting the citizens in return for absolute political power and suspension of the US Constitution.
I totally agree. That’s why they will have to think up something else to do. As Gerald Celkente says, you can’t compete with slave labor. He suggests [gasp] making HIGH QUALITY products [like the USA did in the old days[.
BTW, after WW2, USA workers were paid higher wages than anybody else, the quality of the work was the best, and our stuff was THE CHEAPEST. And we were a creditor nation. So it can be done. Of course that was in the days of minimal government interference.
Without high import tariffs, US workers must compete with foreign workers at or below foreign wage scales for employment in the USA. Most USA citizens do not want to work for wages that the same job in a foreign country would pay.
Instead of re-industrializing to make the things that we consume, maybe the USA might be able to re-create the world class leading Science and Engineering technical population that existed during and for a few decades after WWII when the USA was the leading source of advanced technology, manufacturing, jobs, and industry for the entire world. This technology caused foreign trade surpluses for decades until “free trade” government policies were established a few decades ago, and became destructive to our economy about 1980.
Asian countries are now outdistancing the USA in producing very large numbers of competent scientists and engineers that might be even more creative and more competitive than the US educated scientists and engineers. China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, and other industrial foreign nations are producing large numbers of scientific graduates because their technical education process starts early and continues through university levels to produce a large number of very technically qualified young technical graduates, while the USA produces large numbers of MBAs and very few Technical Science and Engineering graduates.
There is very little economic incentive for US citizen college students to major in any of the science or engineering fields at this time. This needs to change for the benefit of the US economy. I believe that most students today want to study business and/or economics in order to become one of the wealthy Wall Street (master criminal) business tycoons. No person in his or her right mind would major in science or engineering since the pay scale has eroded so much in the last few decades and the study is so demanding compared to several other less demanding and more rewarding fields of study.
We must also eliminate our federal government borrowing to pay expenses, because it will destroy the US Economy.
That’s like saying about a dying patient “Until he gets better we cannot afford to let him breathe oxygen. Strict carbon monoxide diet for him.”
Until the USA can re-industrialize and correct our foreign trade deficit, and eliminate our federal government borrowing to pay for government expenses, maybe we cannot afford to have free trade
“because it will continue to destroy the US economy if we do not.”
The USA population will then become employees; possibly indentured servants; or maybe even beg to become slaves owned by the foreign entities and/or foreign individuals that will acquire everything of value in the USA, including the businesses, factories and other places of employment, in the very near future if the US government continues to destroy the US economy.
US citizens might have no options if they want to feed their families? Our children and our grandchildren might also have to change to the religion (probably not Christian) of the business owner if they want a job.
No. It’s the cure.
Gerald agrees, high import tariffs to prohibit foreign imported products is not the cure, but it will slow down the destruction of the US economy until the USA can structurally change the US economy.
After thoughts to myself:
“OK Dave, you know the party line. You have seen that the concept of comparative advantage is as old as the hills, and have read that it refutes decisively “the tariff to protect us” nonsense. But do you have a link? Can you sum up the argument?”
“No,” I reply. "But I do think I get the bottom line. Which is, how can making everything more expensive for everyone possibly be good for everyone?" It might prevent a second US revolution.
“But the workers will starve. They can’t live on a dime a day, like they do in China.” The workers might start a second US revolution.
“Yes, times will be hard. Wages will be low for everyone. Of course, prices will be low for everyone, too.” The workers might start a second US revolution if it takes one weeks wages to buy a loaf of bread.
"OK then. Obviously it’s better to have a tariff, so that wages will be high for only a very few people, and prices high for everyone. That might be better than a second US revolution.
OH, I do have a link.
I really like what Henry Hazlitt is saying. He makes much more sense than my economics professor at my college. (I am a Mechanical Engineer).
Chapter 11 seems most directly related." Or maybe chapter 13, except under what jurisdiction?