Very cute. The question was obviously asking if better the lizard than the plasticman. Ron Paul is not going to win the South Carolina primary. Would you like to make another wager?
Yes, I was thinking the same thing. In the after debate discussion, the asshole moderator actually pointed out a truth I had noticed myself…that something has been off for Romney this week…and the same thing the first time Gingrich rose to the top of the polls. I think it’s two things. One, Romney doesn’t do well when he’s not in a position of seeming total strength. He’s already been through this rodeo once before, and he knows what it is to run a losing campaign. He knows he doesn’t have a real way to break that 25% ceiling, other than “I’m the only viable candidate”…but that’s the only reason he has the “support” he does (if you can even call it that). The minute someone else looks “electable”, he starts going the way of every other frontrunner in the history of this race.
The second issue is finances. Romney comes from a rich and privileged family. His father was governor…and ran for President. One CNN pundit poked fun at Romney’s statement about being from “the streets of America”…the guy said “it left me scratching my head, I was like: which of your 5 houses among the streets of Martha’s Vineyard are you talking about?” (He didn’t have it come out that well, but he used those words and that’s what he was trying to say). And it’s true. Romney can’t related to the people of America because he hasn’t lived anywhere near their lives. He’s the classic elitist. Basically like a Kennedy. On top of that, he’s Mormon. And on top of that (or perhaps partly because of that), he’s got a kind of reserved personality. And he came from money, and went out and made even more money and he’s filthy rich…
a) he knows that’s not going to look good. Yes, he scored the good line about “I’m not going to apologize for my success” and got a cheer, but that was only 9 seconds after he flubbed around on the question about releasing 12 years worth of tax returns like his father did, and answered “maybe”…and got booed.
It’s obvious Romney’s not comfortable talking about money and he knew this tax issue would come up and he still didn’t have a good answer prepared. You’d think he would, given how basically everything else he says is canned.
b) another point that was brought up, that I actually hadn’t thought of, was that those tax returns will show he’s donated a shitload of money to the Mormon church. And of course a lot of people would say that’s great, he’s wealthy, he should donate to the church…but it’s the Mormon church. For one thing it’s richer than even the Catholic church, but for another, it re-opens the door to the whole religion issue.
Then of top of all this, you have the “oh..well, actually Santorum won Iowa” thing. As much as it doesn’t matter (the Iowa vote is basically just a straw poll…and we’re talking literally a small room’s worth of people), for the media it does matter. As I was saying, the whole time it’s been “he’s gone 2 for 2 already…can anyone stop him? He’s making history winning all these things. He just keeps knocking em all down. Will he go 3 for 3? What if Romney goes 3 for 3? Romney’s coming off back-to-back wins…blah blah blah”. And you can already hear them now…“Romney didn’t even win Iowa, he won New Hampshire, which is basically his home state, and he looks in trouble in SC…I think he’s going into this from a position of weakness…” (I’m not making that up. An analyst actually said that today.)
So even when it was 8 votes before, and it’s 30some now, it makes all the difference in the world as far as the media is concerned. It gives them something to say. In politics it’s winners and losers. They understand that very easily, and it makes it easier when you can talk as if it’s sports.
This is all good news for Paul. It gets the media to shut up with their self-fulfilling prophecy rhetoric, and puts the focus on someone else for a while, and shines negative light on Romney. But even if Gingrich wins in SC, he still won’t get the funding to carry on a full length campaign, and on top of that, he has no real support. He’s not even on the ballot in his state of residence, and as much as people are holding their nose and backing Romney because he’s the “electable” guy, people really don’t care for Gingrich. He’s got so much baggage. How the hell else has Rick f-ing Santorum become (allegedly) a viable candidate…and in the final four?! Rick Santorum. That’s how much everyone hates/is afraid of Gingrich.
My prediction is it’ll be a close race between Gingrich and Romney, but in the end, as far as the media is concered (i.e. what they’ll say) is Gingrich won. (But I’m not putting money on that. The delegates are split, and awarded on a county by county basis, with the winner of the popular vote getting a bonus of 11 delegates. The media may choose to focus on that). I think Paul will beat Santorum, and Santorum will have to reconsider his campaign.