COT (Commission of Trader Report): who's right? commercials or large speculators?

  • Commercials are the guys who usually end up receiving the stuff a contract is worth (oil, lumber, etc); they know very well the situation and they’re deeply monitoring the market.

  • Large speculators are institutional traders.. aka the big players..

They have usually opposite positions.. when one is short, the other one is long, almost everytime.

Who’s the best one to follow? and on what?

How do you use COT data?

(I noticed that usually large specualtors tend to be wiser on the eur/usd.. but commercials beat them when talking about oil.)