I have to assume by “fall off” you mean their prices would drop significantly. I’m not sure why you think commodities would do such a thing in a recession. Especially in this current economy (i.e. with the current state of food stock, etc.) Why should food and natural resources get cheaper?
I’m also curious why you would list “earnings [being] taxed” as a strike against commodities.
a) it depends on the vehicle you use
b) do you know of some other investment return (other than government bonds) that aren’t subject to taxation of some kind? If so, I’d love to hear about it. (And no, your ETF isn’t it.)
Finally, I’m curious as to why you think there is a drop in the money supply coming anytime in the future. I’m really interested to hear a single sign that points to that (let alone enough to counter all the signs that point to the opposite).
On that note, you’ll find a collection of related links here: