(1) Is there a consensus, among those believing in the inevitability of hyperinflation for the U.S., as to a likely timeframe?
(2) Also, what is a reasonable margin of error, as per the predicted timeframe? One or two years only, or must we allow for the possibility of 5+ years, or perhaps even longer?
I don’t think there is, or can be, a consensus regarding a time frame (among those who believe hyperinflation is inevitable). I think there are characteristics we can look for (my opinion only):
The central bank prints money to directly fund deficits and bank failures, and does not call it quantitative easing, or “policy” or any such nonsense. The government needs the money, the Fed prints it. The market comes to expect this process to continue.
The collapse of the fiat credit expansion is delaying the break down of the currency, complicating the time frame.
The scenario is a hyperinflationary depression; high unemployment, high price inflation, caused by monetary inflation.
Then, there’s this to consider.
Thanks!
Let’s put aside the IMF shenanigans for a moment. What kind of time frame are we talking about? When I was tracking these things more carefully, several months ago, I was (very roughly, of course) putting the odds of U.S. hyperinflation at a likelihood of something like 80% within 5 years, and 100% within 10 years. Reasonable?
What would be the soonest hyperinflation might be expected?
I realize I’m asking you to guesstimate, but yours are probably going to be a bit more accurate than mine.
@ OP: I’m not sure how one comes up with “odds” regarding this. I don’t know what a 'reasonable" time frame is. That is why I suggest looking at what the central bank is doing, but take the big picture into account, not just their idiotic policy statements and pundit analysis.
To recap, we have:
An entitlement mentality among the voting masses.
A political class that survives by making promises to the voters.
Massive government debt and deficits.
Dependence on foreign central banks to buy treasuries through the mechanism of trade deficits and interventionist policies.
The Fed will do whatever it takes to bailout the banks and make treasury bond holders whole.
A media and general population that are ignorant of economic matters.
Social Security and Medicare, time bomb. The only way to fund this is with newly created money and euthanasia imposed by the government (not a monetary policy, but it is a social policy providing insight into what is coming).
I don’t see how we can put this into a time frame. 3 years? 10 years? Longer? I have no idea. In the mean time, don’t underestimate the power of the fiat credit contraction. I do know that things can change rapidly, overnight. When these events happen, the analysis changes quickly.
80% within 5 years, and 100% within 10 years
All kidding aside. Thanks, Chloe, for your efforts to answer my question. Your answers were helpful!!