I realize that the better stock market numbers recently may not be a very accurate indicator for future economic growth, but the media seems to be touting it as such. With the FED beginning to monetize our debt, it appears that higher inflation is due.
What is a good response to those who argue that the “stimulus” has saved us from a great depression?
No [8-)]
We don’t know if recovery is beginning yet. Even if it was, it wouldn’t be clear that it was triggered by the stimulus. The response is “wait and see.”
Joined the historical school, have we? [:P]
Only ~10% of the “stimulus” has been spent.
All I know is that the U.S. government is wasting trillions of dollars. It wastes a trillion every year on foreign policy. It wastes about a trillion a year on regulations, if I remember correctly. Amtrax, USPS, GM, Chrysler, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac are all sinkholes. They just gave Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac another $200 billion a couple of months ago. It is spending upteen billions on Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid payouts. All of this money is unavailable to the private sector. Then there is the “stimulus” bill, of which only about $100 billion has been taken from the private sector and blown. Then there are all the ARMS mortgage resets going on for the next two years. There was the recent destruction of $3 billion worth of cars.
The theory of people like Peter Schiff is that eventually, the government will not be able to borrow money, at any price. When this happens, to pay for its trillions of dollars in spending, it will probably start printing the money. That is when we will see the shit hit the fan.
Here’s my analysis of real gdp growth. If you use gold as your index of inflation, then the economy is shrinking at a rate of 8%-10% per year.
That only goes to the end of 2008. There has been rapid inflation so far in 2009, and the trend is continuing.