Is there a hidden gold standard operating?

Economics Economics Questions
1

People have for generations been assigning their resources (investing their available earned income) into whatever they deem to be safe enough for their liking, while still giving enough return on investment to equal or maybe beat inflation, until such a day as they wish to retrieve the money to spend.

Depending on their individual education and degree of risk tolerance they have chosen; housing, stamps, art, Beanie Babies, coins, stocks, bonds and a whole myriad of other choices.

As long as they deem their choice to be safe enough for their liking, while still having the possibility of it appreciating in value, they buy these things rather than boring/safe things like gold. Until recently it seemed to Joe Average uninformed investor, that gold was too conservative and boring an investment.

As I understand it, Austrians believe if USA currency was linked to gold, it would be harder for the government to inflate.

But the government did inflate it, to an unheard of scale.

And then came the economic crash, and all the shiny sexy investments lost their value and scared the daylights out of investors who thought they had a sure thing. (I’m not talking about sophisticated speculators who know how to profit even from a down market) I am talking about millions upon millions of average citizens who had money in some form of retirement and some other “rainy day” type money invested.

So what happened? The price of gold skyrocketed to an over 400% increase. (And some of it’s cousins like silver, copper platinum etc. as well)

So what I want to discuss with everybody is my opinion that:

  1. This is the free market expressing their distrust in the dollar and their higher degree of trust in gold is it not? Is that not another way of saying no matter how governments say they are dissociating themselves from the gold standard, the market eventually forces their hand? They may hide their inflationary tricks for a while but eventually the market sees it and withdraws from their weak counterfeit currency?

  2. That the actual usefulness and utility of gold has not increased. There is not a sudden need to use gold to cure cancer. Gold is not being used to replace the gas burning engine or make people live 20 years longer. No it’s the same gold we had yesterday and it is being used for the same purpose as before, to park money. So my theory is that what we see today is not some super inflated bubble of crazies speculating like they did in the real estate and dot com bubbles. This is just the real, current value of gold in the currency we call dollars.

And therefore. despite what the politicians and news media tell you about inflation being low, in real value, the Dollar is now worth only about 25% of what it was just a few years ago?

Am I wrong or not?

I am not an economist so tell me what you think in simple terms please.

2

Too boring for anyone to comment?

3

Inflation does not deal with rising prices… inflation only causes rising prices but rising prices is not inflation. Inflation is the increase of the money supply, or to some Austrians, increase of the money supply beyond demand. It is the increase of the money supply (inflation) that causes the rising prices. So, no Government did not inflate gold to an unheard of scale because the price of gold sky rocketed. According to Robert Murphy and other Austrians, the price of gold is high only because people fear the value of the dollar since the central banks keeps printing more of it. Austrians say that it would be harder to inflate the supply of money if it was backed by gold because the government would need to find extra gold somewhere to back up their money.

Again, according to Murphy, the only reason gold’s price is as high as it is, is because people are afraid of the continuous money printing policy…so yes, the market is saying that the expectations of the dollar have decrease. We can see the weakness of the US currency by comparing it to Gold, as well as other commodities, like other metals, or compare it to the Swiss franc.

(I do not completely understand the top paragraph, so tell me if i misinterpret you.) By the top paragraph, it sounds like you are saying that if the US had a gold standard, the price of gold would still be where it is at today because what we see in the gold prices is the real value. This is wrong because, like i said in the last response, the only reason the price of gold is high is because of the decrease expectation of the dollar due to excessive money printing. Lets assume that, everything else equal, the dollar did not exist. Would the price of gold be the same as it is ? No, because people aren’t showing their lack of expectation of the dollar, since it is non existent.

4

Right on the money, excuse the pun. Every word is pure gold. Really.

5

Just too obvious, perhaps. Don’t take it personally.

6

Thanks for rersponding Izzy.

Maybe I was too verbose to make my main point which is according to my rough calculations

It looks to me that the dollar can only buy 25% of what it used to in gold.

I suspect that other inflationary effects are not obvious to the public yet because of the smoke and mirrors,lies, subsidies and bailouts by the media and powers that be, but sooner or later it will become obvious in the pocket of Joe Average.

  • I think we both agree that inflation does not cause prices to rise, but it takes more dollars to buy the same thing because the dollar is worth less. We both agree government interferance in the economy leads to horrible effects. We both agree the dollar has lost value, we just disagree on how much.
  • It seems where we disagree is with the “real value” of gold. I think the price is what it is. You think the price is temporarily falsely elevated because people distrust the dollar.(I also think so, but that is all part of the effect i am complaining about) So you would calculate the real effect of inflation at a much lower level than I do.

If there were currencies that were backed by gold and not manipualated by things like fractional reserve banking, when the price of gold went up, because of whatever reason, the value of these currencies would also go up. And the opposite would happen if the value went down. Thats fine. It means using gold as the standard for currency is not a perfect standard, nor is it constant, it is just the closest example of a near perfect standard we can think of.

You say the price of gold is “high” only because “people are afraid of the continuous money printing Policy” That is also partially my point so we agree there. I just don’t believe it is the “only” reason

  • I believe there is no high price, there is no low price, there is just current market value. It is what it is because people are willing to pay that much for it today.
  • It is influenced by a myriad of factors, some visible and some unknown to us. Yes the current “sexiness” of gold and the frsustration with politicians play a role in the uptick and other things like banks or governments dumping can cause downticks. We can’t always tell whats causing it, but at the end of the day it sells at market price.
  • If there were no dollar the price would still be what it was, it would just be in Rubles or Clams or Escudos or whatever.

So I believe I am reasonably accurate in comparing tadays gold price in dollars with a few years ago and concluding the dollar is in far more trouble than everybody is admitting.

7

Z1235- Thanks I guess. I am new to this line of thinking, so I am not sure that my calculations are right. So If you accuse me of being obvious I suspect that means you think I am right.

But I have to disagree that my claim (probably too deeply hidden) that the dollar is worth only 25% of what it was a few years ago is obvious.

I have not heard anybody else claim that. I am hoping that I am wrong, that’s why I am testing my theory here. but if I am right it is alarming and should be shouted out more loudly.

8

“And the opposite would happen if the value went down. Thats fine. It means using gold as the standard for currency is not a perfect standard, nor is it constant…”

Since when is a perfect standard defined by it’s ability to never change in value? Just like every other commodity in the market, the value of the money stock SHOULD be fluctuating alongside everything else. Again, we can’t “plan” or even determine when or why the value of gold would go up or down in a free market. This will depend on the supply and demand of the money at any given time. The Fed has the same line of thinking regarding keeping the currency “stable” and takes all kinds of measures to attempt to do so but of course it has done everything but that.

9

Yes Freeradicals, I agree.

I was just trying to disagree with Izzy that I could not use the current price of gold in my argument because it was influenced by the peoples distrust of the dollar.

At the end of the day there still is a “gold standard” determined by the market.

10

You seem to be conflating the value of the dollar with inflation. They are not the same thing The dollar may be able to only buy 25% of the gold it used to, but it also can only buy x% of all sorts of other items as well. Gold is not special in this regard.

A commodity (ie gold) standard with paper currency only indirectly ties the value of the currency to the value of gold. There is no hidden gold standard because the dollar is not exchangable for a fixed weight of gold, instead it is exchangable for a varying value of gold (assuming you can find someone to trade with).

11

“At the end of the day there still is a “gold standard” determined by the market.”

You are confusing me by using the term “gold standard” when you really should be saying people perform actions to protect their wealth. There is no gold standard determined by the market, just people performing actions that they believe to protect their wealth. If there was a real 100% gold standard inflation wouldn’t be an issue like it is today and all these things you are talking about wouldn’t be an issue. (People buying stamps etc).

A gold standard is specific to a stock of money. An investment is different and the terms shouldn’t be used interchangeably, money is not the same thing as wealth.