So, Mr ClaytonB, exactly where in this thread [or anywhere else on these boards] do you believe that I have said this?
Or , to put it another way, and to [somewhat reluctantly] use your own adjective here :
nonsense, I have never said any such thing - [but if I had, yes, I agree, that would indeed be “nonsense”[:)] ]
A misunderstanding on your part, I’m sure, nothing more.
Regards, onebornfree
A friend, the Chairman of the OLP, told me about a gold related stock called CBR one year ago. It has gone up 4 times since then. It was hugely undersold at the time, with a book value per share 20 times the market share price. There is always money to be made if you find time to research.
Buy silver and short the Dollar, Euro, and Pound.
Just a sidenote here: for short-term cash holdings, make sure you look into high-interest checking accounts. For instance, my main checking account is with Coulee Bank, which offers 3.33% interest right now. It’s still a bank (and still fractional-reserve), but a higher interest rate means less wealth lost to inflation—even if it is still a net loss.
QFT
Silver has consistently been outperforming gold the past several years.
Consider SLV.
If you think you need to hold physical gold for trading purposes then consider holding silver instead, it’s far more divisible. You can buy in bulk pre 1965 US coins which are 90% silver for cheap.
What time horizon are you looking at? Are you looking to take big risks for potentially big gains, or are you conservative and seeking capital preservation?
Generally I try to be long where the fundamentals are sound and prices are depressed and short where the prices are ridiculously high to the point it is a mania (thanks Jim Rogers). The biggest bubble in the world right now is the US government bond market. Anybody with a functioning brain can see that the largest debtor in history borrowing money for 30 years at under 5% is seriously insane. These bonds are ridiculously overpriced. Gilts in the UK are in the same boat as far as I’m concerned. Interest rates in many western countries have one place to go; up. People who short Treasuries and Gilts will make fortunes if their timing is right. Perhaps you may want to consider buying some puts on government bond funds. Keep in mind that due to all the money printing and other government nonsense everything is vastly distorted right now. I would not touch the forex markets. There are so many people short the euro, for instance, that it may be bound to move upwards. I’m not mr. technical analysis so I’m not sure where it will go in the short-term.
Right now everybody believes that the world economies are all recovering and this is reflected in equities going up constantly no matter what is going on. The fundamentals are not sound, the P/Es are high, nothing has gotten better in the west, volume is low, etc. The one thing I would not do is buy any US stocks. I would not be surprised to see a 20 - 25% correction in the DJIA/S&P 500. If the stock markets do crash, as stupid as this is, people are going to want to be as liquid as possible. So what will they do on an international level? They will buy dollars and Treasuries. I have short positions in Treasuries which I may cover soon because I fear this very scenario happening in which case I can patiently wait for the idiots running to Treasuries so I can buy some puts very cheap.
Commodities will probably outperform equities over the long-term although this has obviously been far from the case the past year or so (unless of course you purchased some lumber!). I don’t have the time nor experience to heavily research commodities like a hedge fund manager, though as an asset class you could diversify and buy agriculture (the most depressed of all broad commodity classes), energy (though NG seems like a loser due to supply glut at the moment and lack of demand due to decreased factory utilization), base metals (though these have been run up pretty high), and precious metals (gold/silver).
You said that “I’d avoid anything that depends on the value of the USD for potential returns.” I have to point out that the statement makes no sense. If you are long commodities in general, you are most likely doing so because you believe the USD will fall (so it depends on the value of the USD). As I said, the USD may have one big rally left in it if stock markets have a severe correction which given the current situation seems very likely. In the next 2 months, there will be 20 billion euros of debt coming due for Greece and it seems that the market rightfully doubts the viability of a EU/IMF bailout as evidenced by the yields on Greek bonds remaining high. If there are problems there, which there may very well be, Treasuries/USD will go through the roof. Not to mention if you recall a few months ago when the Fed raised the discount rate, which had a whopping $17 billion in outstanding loans, by 25 basis points the market got very jittery. What do you think will happen when the Fed funds rate rises to 0.5%, to 1.0%!!! Over the long-term the dollar is finished so if you are willing to take some losses in the short-term you can always hold your positions and wait it out.
It’s one messed up world - do your research, don’t panic, and stick with the fundamentals.
Best regards,
Chris
Food’s a good investment, always. Apart from that, anything is better than a worthless dollar. You can trade bundles of cash for larger bundles of lined notebooks, and in the end you will at least be able to trade a notebook for an apple if things get really bad.
But don’t fret over it. If it gets THAT bad, we’ll probably be shot at some point. Some of us, anyway. For the good of the country. You know how it is.
Now, I wouldn’t recommend investing entirely in gold. Depending on the people around you in a crisis, gold might not be the first thing on their minds to make a trade for. Also, a gold standard won’t magically grow out of a crisis.
Never put too many eggs in one basket. Whatever it’s gold, ETF, funds etc.
Physical gold is not an investment but a long term insurance against inflation. In a fiat money regime it always pays in the long run. Most countries still have pretty lax legislation regarding gold so you can buy it from certified sellers without leaving a paper trail. If you do not feel safe about keeping it at home you can always get a safety box in a bank.
I am not a big fan of stocks and I feel the market at the present is bound to go down before the end of the year by anything between 5 and 15%: even when adjusted for inflation and mindless optimism it’s still overvalued. The only exceptions are pharmaceutical and selected energy titles. Except for big scandals (Vioxx) pharmaceutical titles are always good performers and pay decent dividends. Energy titles are much linked to speculation, especially in present environment, but there are a few good ones: if you have access to the European stock market and DAX in particular look out for Gazprom stocks. Once in a while a batch pops up for sale. Unless you are a skilled broker this is the only energy title I would buy at the moment and stick to.
At the moment I have bank obligations which have been paying nicely (for modern standards). But mind our banking system is a bit more solid than the US. This is the largest part of my portfolio and, in present conditions, probably the safest way to put money into.
If you feel adventurous and have no problems selling short and making money on other people’s skins, why not considering Greek government bonds? The batch which is going on sale at the moment has a 6,75% yield which is a lot. There are no doubt the ECB will back them up for a few years so for three-four years they will be as safe as German bonds but with a much higher yield. Mind that Greece is surely going to either default or be dumped by the ECB in the middle run so you have to draw a date by which these bonds must go. Also consider the projected German debt for 2009 is bound to be quite shocking so yields on their new bonds are sure to increase.
Thanks again everyone; your input is much appreciated!
Kakugo, is the best way to buy Gazprom by getting buying shares of OGZPY? And what’s the best way to get in on the Greek government bonds? Interesting ideas…
What I’m thinking about so far is splitting the money between Gold (Perth Mint or GoldMoney), Silver (SLV or similar), Cash, Dividend paying stocks, International and precious metals based Mutual Funds and perhaps some mad money for something offbeat…
Thanks again, and please let me know if you guys have any other ideas.
If it were me I would take delivery 
The cramer effect can make or break you be careful with that.