…where have I heard this before…
Ridiculous.
No matter how this ends - great work, Graham!
Thanks Peter! Right back at you for your contributions to the Mises Wiki.
What If?
It’s Romney’s to Lose: Here’s How He Does It
“What if Paul’s supporters just ignore the binding rules and vote their consciences? What if, in Tampa, all those Paul supporters who are bound by state rules to vote for Romney put the ball firmly back in the GOP’s court, and say, “Your move”?”…
Time for an update… (This analysis assumes that Ben Swann is incorrect when he says that no delegates are bound. It also assumes any delegates bound to Santorum or Gingrich are now unbound.)
From the 18 states/territories that have had state conventions (leaving out AZ and OK)… Bound delegates: Paul 51 (10%), Romney 192 (37%), Unbound 278 (53%). Assuming no stealth delegates… Supporters: Paul 112 (21%), Romney 252 (48%), Unknown 157 (30%).
Adding the 11 states/territories/districts that used slates or direct elections… Bound delegates: Paul 59 (7%), Romney 358 (41%), Unbound 461 (53%). Assuming that these methods always result in delegates who support the candidate they are pledged to… Supporters: Paul 120 (14%), Romney 462 (53%), Unknown 296 (34%).
Adding the 4 states that use committees and the 11 states that have had their popular vote (and/or CDC elections) but not their state convention… Bound delegates: Paul 78 (5%), Romney 762 (48%), To Be Bound 65 (4%), Unbound 699 (44%).
Adding the 2 disputed states and the 10 states yet to have their popular vote… Bound delegates: Paul 78 (3%), Romney 804 (35%), To Be Bound 628 (27%), Unbound 776 (34%).
For a more detailed breakdown, see the wiki page.
Why does that look incredibly similar to the mainstream totals?
I’m so confused.
And what has happened to the RP campaign? It’s like they’ve gone silent:
I’m starting to lean toward the quiet threat theory.
Clayton -
Benton all but confirmed it. Something fishy is going on. I still have to hear from Ron Paul himself about any of it..
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76505_Page2.html#ixzz1vMEXOm4o
I’m telling you, the GOP told Paul that he will suffer a great embarassment if his supporters disrupt the convention. I wouldn’t be surprised if Paul isn’t even invited to it.
These counts are coming from where, anyway?
Several reasons…
I’ve not looked at boundedness before. My previous figures referred only to supporters. It was also limited to early states before, which Paul did better in.
This includes states like SC, KS, MS, GA where Paul received no delegates at all, bound or otherwise, and for which I have not seen evidence any delegates are Paul supporters.
I should mention that among the unbound delegates here, 45 are known Paul supporters. Also 18 Romney-bound delegates support Paul and 2 Paul-bound delegates support Romney.
Previously, I omitted these 11 places completely, because I wasn’t sure what was going on with them… they had no state convention listed. They are actually states that use the slate method, where before the primary or caucuses each candidate submits a slate with prospective delegates and then the allocated delegates are selected from these slates according to the primary or caucus result. I figure these delegates are already chosen and all done ‘automatically’, and they are highly likely to support the candidate whose slate they were on, because the candidates specifically chose them to be on the slate. Paul did really badly in all these states and territories, winning just 8 next to Romney’s 210.
I don’t have any reason to not include these states in the tally; nothing else is going to happen with them AFAIK. I have seen no evidence to believe anything other than that these delegates support the candidate that chose them.
The big committee states, NY and FL, award 142 for Romney, 0 for Paul. I have no idea who these delegates will actually support, but by state rules they are all bound to Romney. Its hard to guess who delegates support before those delegates have been chosen.
Among the 11 are states like MA and VA, where delegates elected in CDCs are supposedly bound to Romney but actually support Paul. And states like ID, IN, NC which have bound many delegates to Romney and few to Paul. Since the state conventions haven’t happened in any of these yet, it is again impossible to know how many Paul supporters will be among those bound to Romney or unbound.
I should add that at least 107 unbound are Paul supporters, and at least 56 bound to Romney are Paul supporters. But with so many unknowns with this many states included, any guess about total supporter numbers can only be a wild one.
I guess these look like mainstream numbers because I assume here, like they do, that when state rules say a delegate is bound, they really are, and Paul victories in states like NV, MA and VA in terms of numbers of supporters can’t change who the delegates are bound to.
If Ben Swann is right, none of this stuff about being bound matters, and it’s all about who the delegates support. In that case, the important numbers are the first set I bolded. I include the bound numbers just in case Swann is wrong, to see if a second ballot is likely to occur in that case, or how many abstentions that would require.
Have you guys looked at my thread?
It looks like the GOP is threatening court actions against people who do not vote for Romney in States that claim to be bound.
Lawyers Confirm All Delegates Are Unbound
Lawyers for Ron Paul:
http://www.facebook.com/groups/188334154612254/
So, why exactly won’t Paul say anything in public about this, then? Still stealthing it up?
I read in an article that the GOP had been in “daily contact with Dr. Paul” discussing how they (the GOP) can win in November. That doesn’t bode well for Paul delegates who think that he is still in it to win it.
Reality Check: Did Mitt Romney Really Secure GOP Nomination With Texas Win?
Paul won 27 of the 46 delegates in Louisiana to secure his fourth state win, after Maine, Nevada and Minnesota.
The win that was expected in Washington did not happen, with Paul winning just 5 of the 43 delegates.
And Paul won 0 of the 25 at-large delegates in Missouri, leaving Paul with just 4 of the 52 total in that state, which was considerably less than hoped for.
See the improved wiki page for a full breakdown, but I estimate from the 1,287 delegates selected so far, 191 (15%) are Paul supporters and 722 (56%) are Romney supporters.
That’s depressing
There is this:
The Pauls Build A Libertarian Machine
The guy running that site doesn’t respond to my emails. I don’t know what source he is using for the Colorado result (I have Paul 13, Romney 16, Santorum 7, he has Paul 18, Romney 16, Santorum 2) or the Georgia result (he says 10 Gingrich delegates are Paul supporters, which I can find no verification of), for example.