Ron Paul ACTUAL delegate count

Miscellaneous Current Events
1

I’ve been gathering data and reports to keep track of how many delegates have actually been chosen so far, and who they support. And to try to come up with a more reliable estimate of how many delegates Ron Paul is likely to win in states that have not chosen their National delegates yet.

It is all here at the Mises Wiki: https://wiki.freecapitalists.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

So the big question: how is Ron Paul doing?

Here is my analysis of the first 13 states. Between them, these 13 states send 426 delegates to RNC.

  • Three states (CO,MN,WY) (105 delegates) have finished assigning delegates. Vote count: Paul 50, Romney 39, Other 16.
  • One state (NH) has finished assigning delegates, but it has assigned 20 when it only has an allocation of 12. Delegate count: Paul 5, Romney 12, Other 3. (This may be factored down to Paul 3, Romney 7, Other 2)
  • One state (MO) (52 delegates) has assigned some delegates. Vote count: Paul 4, Romney 12, Other 11. The remaining 25 are assigned on 2 June.
  • Four states (IA,NV,ME,WA) (123 delegates) have yet to assign any delegates (all do in May or early June), but RP is expected to do well. RP is expected to take all 24 delegates from ME, a majority of delegates in IA (14+), NV (14+) and WA (22+).
  • Three states (SC,AZ,MI) (84 delegates) have yet to assign any delegates.
  • One state (FL) (50 delegates) is involved in a dispute involving how to assign it’s delegates: winner-take-all or proportional.

From the five states (169 delegates) where delegates have been assigned, we have: Paul 57 (40%), Romney 58 (40%), Other 29 (20%), plus 25 more to be assigned in MO. If these 25 are assigned in the same proportion as the first 27 in that state, we have an additional Paul 4, Romney 11, Other 10.

If the projections of a clean-sweep in ME and Paul majorities in IA, NV and WA are accurate, Paul can expect at least another 74, leaving Romney with no more than 49, from those four states. Assume the worst-case that all these 49 go to Romney. Adding these estimates to the totals, we get from these nine states (292 delegates): Paul 135 (46%), Romney 118 (40%), Other 39 (13%).

Assume that FL ends up using winner-takes-all and all 50 go to Romney. The mainstream media are projecting zero delegates for Paul in SC, AZ or MI. They project 94 for Romney, and 40 for Other. Taking these worst-case scenarios for these four states, we have Paul 135 (32%), Romney 212 (50%), Other 79 (19%). The delegates in the Other category were mostly candidates bound to Santorum or Gingrich, and many of these are now free to vote for whoever they wish.

The Ron Paul delegate strategy appears to be working. It looks like Romney might win less than 50% of the delegates from the 13 early states.

*** May 2012 low content thread ***
HUGE Ron Paul Moneybomb in TODAAAY...May 17
*** May 2012 low content thread ***
2

This is incredible, Graham. Thank you so much for your work. Have you put up a new post at the DP? I think a new post there as well as the RPF is in order.

3

HOT…## Reality Check: Bound Delegates In The Republican Primary May Not Be Bound After All

http://TheReal2012DelegateCount.com

4

So apparently, Ron Paul took 22 of 25 Nevada delegates to the national convention. But apparently, these delegates are bound by the proportional vote in the state…meaning many of them would have to vote for Romney on the first ballot. Now, as can be seen in the news report above, according to the rules, delegates cannot be bound. However, allegedly, there was an attorney Tim Morgan sent by the RNC to scare Ron Paul delegates by telling them that if they unbind the delegates that they may not be seated at the National Convention.

And apparently the final decision was to not unbind the delegates because they can instead simply abstain from voting in the first round, which would have the same effect…as the whole point is to make sure Romney does not have a majority.

5

Of course, it would be better if those delegates could both not-vote for Romney in favor of giving those votes to Ron Paul, but do the delegates know that they can abstain from voting?

6

That site certainly looks cool, and it’s helping improve my knowledge of US geography, but many of the numbers are different to mine, and it includes some numbers where the delegates have not been chosen yet. Even his own numbers don’t add up though. He has Romney with a total of 697, but if you add the numbers he gives for each state, they come to 629. I’ve sent him an email to let him know. It would be handy if he had links to sources and some explanation of what is included and what isn’t.

7

Yeah I was pretty disappointed with it. It sucks that a sight specifically dedicated to “real delegate count” offers guessing just like everyone else.

(I also forgot for a moment that you weren’t even American. Even more kudos for bothering with our ridiculous system.)

8

I don’t think you’re understanding the process. Delegates from all the state caucuses and primaries are sent to the Republican National Convention in Tampa. There they will vote on a nominee for the Republican Party.

  1. In multiple states, a majority of the delegates are supporters of Ron Paul.

  2. In some of these states, there is an understanding that the delegates are “bound” based on the rules that the state Republican Party (i.e. the faction of the the Republican Party that operates in that state…it can set it’s own rules so long as it operates under the general rules laid down by the national party). “Bound” means that the delegate cannot vote for whomever they wish, but must vote for whom the party rules designate. This means, that in the case of Nevada for example, Romney is due to receive a certain number of votes from the Nevada delegation because of his percentage of the Nevada Caucus vote, per Nevada Republican Party rules.

  3. As illustrated by Ben Swann, according to the RNC rules for 2008 & 2010 (which evidently may be in effect for this year), Rule 38 states: “No delegate or alternate delegate shall be bound by any attempt of any State or Congressional district to impose the ‘Unit Rule’”. What this means to Ben’s interpretation is that it may not be the case that delegates are bound at all, according to the Republican National Committee rules.

  4. According to this thread on RPF, Ben may not be correct. It’s fuzzy because of the definition of “unit rule”, as that is the only thing Rule 38 applies to. From what it seems like, with the advent of unbound Super delegates, Rule 38 is null, and would only have any effect if a state tried to get rid of its unbound super delegates.

  5. So 22 of the 25 25 of 28 delegates from Nevada are Ron Paul supporters. However, again, according to common understanding, many (if not most) of them are required by Party rules to vote for Romney on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention (the event in Tampa where a nominee for the Republican Party’s candidate for the Presidency of the United States is selected). Again, The Daily Caller:

“The 16 delegates supporting Paul [in Massachusetts] are bound to vote for Romney on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. If Romney does not achieve the required number of votes on the first ballot, the delegates can vote for the candidate of their choice.”

According to that RPF thread, that may still be the case. And allegedly, there was an attorney Tim Morgan sent by the RNC to scare Ron Paul delegates in Nevada by telling them that if they unbind the delegates that they may not be seated at the National Convention.

  1. So instead of taking the risk of not being seated at the Convention (and not being able to cast a vote for Ron Paul as the nominee for the Republican Party candidate for the Presidency of the United States), again, apparently the final decision made by the Ron Paul Nevada Campaign was to not unbind the delegates (i.e. tell them to vote for Ron Paul anyway) because they can instead simply abstain from voting in the first round, which would have the same effect…as the whole point is to make sure Romney does not have a majority. After the first ballot (i.e. the first round of voting), if no one person has a majority of the votes, then another vote is taken, and the process is repeated until a person does have a majority.

This is how Warren Harding was able to go into the Republican National Convention with six percent of the delegates, and after ten ballots, come out with the nomination with 70 percent of the vote.

So one more time…the 25 of the 28 delegates from the Nevada delegate are Ron Paul supporters, however many of them are required to vote for Mitt Romney at the first vote of the Republican National Convention. Allegedly they were told that if the Nevada Republican Party unbinds them from that requirement (i.e. tells them that they can vote for whoever they want on the first ballot) then the Republican National Committee will not allow them to vote at all at the Republican National Convention. So instead of risk that, the Ron Paul Campaign of Nevada simply plans to have the Nevada delegates abstain from voting at all during the first ballot.

This will have the desired effect of making sure Romney does not have a majority of the vote (to secure the nomination for the Republican Party candidate for the Presidency of the United States) so that there will have to be another vote…in which all delegates can vote for whomever they want…Which means, Ron Paul would probably win the nomination, as he probably has more actual supporters who are delegates than any other candidate.

Capiche?

9

Only for Ron Paul.

10

You’re right that I’m a bit fuzzy on the process.

I was just wondering if the delegates themselves knew that they could abstain from voting, rather than this being the words of advice of what some forum posters would do; as you make clear, the delegates are aware. I know that bound delegates can’t vote for whoever they want- in that quote I was expressing disappointment that bound delegates are bound despite what Swann found. Of course, not voting at all is better than being forced to vote for Romney, but it would be better still if Swann’s interpretation were the rules by which the RNC were playing.

11

Updated analysis of the Early States.

Between them, these 13 states send 426 delegates to the RNC. Here is a breakdown as of 7 May:

  • 5 states (NH,NV,CO,ME,WY) (129 delegates) have finished assigning delegates. Delegate count: Paul 65, Romney 46, Other 18.
  • 2 states (MN,MO) (92 delegates) have assigned some delegates. Delegate count: Paul 24, Romney 13, Other 14. The remaining 41 are assigned later: 19 May in MN, 2 June in MO.
  • 2 states (IA,WA) (71 delegates) have yet to assign any delegates, but Paul is expected to take majorities in IA (14+) on 16 June and WA (22+) on 2 June.
  • 3 states (SC,AZ,MI) (84 delegates) have yet to assign any delegates and all do so by 19 May.
  • 1 state (FL) (50 delegates) has yet to assign delegates and it is not clear when this will happen.

Analysis of the Super Tuesday States

Between them, these 10 states send 437 delegates to the RNC. Here is a breakdown as of 7 May:

  • 4 states (AK,ND,OH,TN) (179 delegates) have assigned all their delegates. Delegate count: Paul 8, Romney 83, Other 88. Delegates in AK and TN are bound* on the first ballot, but in ND delegates are “free to vote with their conscience” and in OH delegates are “morally but not legally bound” on the first ballot.
  • 1 state (MA) (41 delegates) has bound* all its delegates to vote for Romney on the first ballot. 27 delegates have been selected so far. 16 of these will vote for Paul on subsequent ballots and may abstain from the first ballot.
  • 5 states (GA,ID,OK,VT,VA) (217 delegates) have yet to assign delegates. All do so in May or June.

Delegate Count

Actual delegate count (9 full states, 2 partial states): Paul 97 (27%), Romney 142 (40%), Other 120 (33%).

States won (9 full states): Paul 3, Romney 5, Other 1.

  • Depending on how RNC Rule 38 is interpreted, states may not be allowed to bind their candidates even on the first ballot. Even if they are bound, these delegates may be able to abstain on the first ballot, after which they are unbound.
12

I love how the official media count has Romney at 856 delegates alone, when there’s only been a total of 359 actually assigned.

13

There may have been some more from the post Super Tuesday states not included above, but nowhere near 800.

It’s hard to tell in some cases whether the figures at The Green Papers are actual and final now, or whether something else is going to happen (like a state convention) that could change those numbers (meaning they are just guesses). For example, Alabama, Hawaii, Wisconsin. I don’t know what’s happening there. It could be that they just don’t have a date for a state convention yet.

Only Kansas, Maryland and Delaware (from the post Super Tuesday states) have already had their state conventions, so these are the only ones where I presume the process is all over and The Green Papers numbers are final.

14

That’s just Romney’s alleged total. If you throw in all the other delegates they have assigned to people, the total number of delegates allocated is over 1,300.

15

This doesn’t seem entirely accurate either, as I know that Alaska hasn’t been decided yet, and I don’t think it’s fair to count MA for Ron Paul, as the majority of those delegates are bound to vote for Romney on the first ballot, so that’s misleading. Things like that.

Ron Paul Delegate Count Map

(RunRonPaul.com)

16

This news is amazing if true, but it really feels surreal because there’s so little hard evidence to be able to see these results other than what RunRonPaul.com has collected.

Where can I find some reliable data that isn’t from the word of the RP campaign? I’ve found an article by the Las Vegas Review Journal concerning Nevada so far.

EDIT: That above site is the best resource, correct? News entries seem the most substantial to me, so what I’m reading sounds very good indeed. Rachel Maddow wondering aloud isn’t as reliable however.

17

I couldn’t find any, so I made my own, where you can find more sources. Add more if you have them or find them.

That site is using projections like everyone else, just projections that are a bit more favorable to Paul.

Paul has only won Maine for sure, as far as I can tell. Colorado we are relying on reports that 13 uncommitted delegates are Paul supporters. Nevada we have a strong majority, but they may be bound to vote for someone else on the first ballot. Alaska is over and Paul didn’t win. All the other Paul states on that map (IA,WA,LA,OK,MA,MO) are not final yet, although Paul could well win majorities in all of them.

18

Um. Holy crap.

HOT…Reality Check: All Republican Delegates Are “Free Agents” and Unbound?

19

I’d be wary about this (Swann seems too confident)…There is no authority that can tell anyone one way or the other. The GOP/RNC will fight Paul every way they can. I suspect we have yet to see how far they are willing to go.

20

http://www.examiner.com/article/gop-establishment-makes-a-mockery-of-the-democratic-process-oklahoma

The campaign against Ron Paul