Please don’t bash my head into the wall but I think it’s pretty clear that the US won’t see a Ron Paul GOP candidacy for the 2008 elections.
It will be most likely (unless something unexpected and spectacular happens, of course) a Clinton II-McCain show off with the former First Lady winning quite easily. I don’t think that we’ll see such close results as the last two ones. Personally I also believe that the GOP will be quite happy with results: first the Clintons’ programs is amazingly similar to the most mainstream Republican candidates. Second if a recession hits hard (generated by eight years of Big Government, Big Spending Republicans) it will be quite easy to blame overgenerous Democrats. Third a progressive woman in the White House will surely be a huge PR hit for the US after quite a few years of “Let’s-bomb-the-ragheads-back-to-the-Stone-Age” angry men (and women, of course: Mrs Rice will not forgotten). If Mrs Clinton will order Khartoum or Teheran to be bombed it will be in the name of democracy, human rights etc and the press will march compact behind her.
Did Ron Paul fail by not winning a GOP candidacy? No, absolutely. The most intelligent observers knew from minute one that such a radical candidate could not possibly win in the long run. But that he could accomplish so much with so little resources available was nothing short of a miracle. Or, if you prefer, a sign of times. The American political DNA, despite many many years of Big Deals, Big Societies, Worlds Safe for Democracy etc is litterally soaked in the ideals of liberty, personal responsability and limited government. After many years of lying dormant the sleeping gene is finally awakening, thanks in no small part to the Internet. While the traditional medias obscured Ron Paul and his strict Constitutional ideals the Internet brought them to millions of households.
People read what the Good Doctor had to say, his views on limited government, solid money, foreign policy and began to say “this chap isn’t such a crackpot as Fox News said”. I am pretty sure that if more people spent less time watching people playing Guitar Hero on Youtube and a bit more reading Dr Paul’s speeches at the House of Representives Mrs Clinton and her kin will be in for a bit of rough time.
The fact that a growing percentage of the US population is demanding a return to the ideals embodied by George Washington and the other Founding Fathers or, at very least, “less government in our lives, please!” is something that Mrs Clinton will have to take into account. Of course it will be easy to just pretend that the Ron Paul movement never happened and hide it under the carpet: in Europe it worked wonders. Livable Netherlands, for example, practically ceased to exist the moment its charismatic leader, Pim Fortuyn was murdered (thanks in small part to the execrable hate campaign ingenerated by mainstream politicians and media), because it was litterally buried alive. Before the assasination polls gave Livable Netherlands as the most likely winner in the forthcoming political elections.
But I trust the US people, much more than i trust the European people, my own kin. Perhaps it will take quite a few years and lots of effort but I am sure the seed planted by Dr Paul will flourish.