Powers that be want Romney for president. Democrats and their media co-conspirators would like Huntsman. This being the first “Tea Party” presidential election, there’s a twist to the current Republican nomination script.
We’re apt to see Palin step in. That would make 3 “Tea Party” candidates (Palin, Perry and Bachmann), 1 establishment candidate (Romney) and 1 libertarian (Ron Paul). The media will want to focus on a 2-3 candidate race, so they’ll ignore the other candidates and a lot of those will drop out. They are already ignoring Ron Paul, but he’ll continue. I suspect it won’t be long before they push Bachmann out - for one, she’s a woman and they don’t want a Republican to be the first female president (see Palin). Palin will get what they usually give her, and they’ll try to push her out shortly after Bachmann. It’s going to be about Romney versus Perry in the eyes of the media.
Current period is all about fund raising and getting your name and positions in front of people. I think Ron Paul’s name and positions are well established - although the media does its best to try to cast it in the “loopy” light. I think Perry and Palin are a stronger draw than Bachmann. Could be enough competition for “Tea Party” support that the funding gets divided too broadly, allowing both Romney and Paul to be in a pretty good position during the actual voting period, which begins in February. Palin is pretty much in; she’s just not in the circus.
I expect there will be a barrage of attacks against Perry, Palin and Bachmann coming from all sorts of places. Going to see some nasty, nasty campaigning. Mud will fly. Perhaps the focus will be so much on the “Tea Party” candidates that they underestimate Ron Paul and leave him be.
March is when I expect it to really get going. Polls are one thing, votes are something quite different. February to March are where they award the delegates proportionally. At that point you’ll see the field narrow, and some might opt to make alliances early. If not, then it gets interesting.
In all or nothing states, which begin in April, how many “Tea Party” candidates remain could be a factor. If there are too many, it may dilute the voting to the point that the majority votes for a “Tea Party” candidate, but all of the delegates go to a non-“Tea Party” candidate. That may favor Romney and hurt Ron Paul.
Crossover voting is also going to be a factor if Barrack Obama has no challenger. Some states allow crossover voting, and you have to figure those folks will be supporting Romney.
How soon someone tries to court Marco Rubio, and those Florida votes he could bring, is anyone’s guess. I figure Rubio will wait until after the nomination to accept the offer to join the ticket of the winner. That is unless Romney has a lead and the “Tea Party” is forced to regroup under a single candidate - probably Perry. Romney probably won’t pick a “Tea Party” person as his running mate.
If it were a contest between Ron Paul and Romney or Ron Paul and Perry, I think Ron Paul could win. In a race with Ron Paul, Romney and Perry, however, it may be more difficult. But who really knows at this point. Most voters really aren’t into it yet regardless of what any particular poll says. A lot can happen until February. Only thing I think that would hurt Ron Paul would be a war or a sudden economic recovery.