I’ve got an oil ETF in my 401K. I’ve been thinking about selling it when it gets to around $150 a barrel, not because I think it will stop going up but because I’m afraid of some type of confiscation. The drumbeat against “oil speculators” is getting louder and I’m worried about some idiotic “anti-speculator” law being passed.
I think you should publicly ask anonymous strangers what to do. That’s how I manage all of my investments.
Whatever dude.
I woulnt sell it yet, it is USO? does it pay a dividend?
It’s USL. As far as I know it doesn’t pay a dividend, just tracks the price of oil. I’m not planning on selling it yet, but at some point I’m afraid the idiots in Washington are going to pass some sort of anti-speculation law or price controls. I’m not sure but I would think this would screw up my USL shares.
If you are afraid of USA political risk the sell half on the next uptick and purchase a Canadian Oil Trust or maybe a foreign (Chinese) utility.
I do agree that Washington has its eyes on oil company profits and on folks benefiting from betting against their Federal Reserve Theft Scam.
Bogart: A Canadian oil company was my first thought, also. Thanks.
I understand your concerns about the anti-speculation talk. First in Reno, now about the profits of oil companies…What a joke.
Check COS.un on the tsx for the oil sands trust.
Right now confiscation is completely out of the picture, don’t believe the alarms. Before having confiscation we’ll have even more inflation , tax hikes etc. You will able to see the signs.
On the other side if you want to sell to buy gold and hide it away “just in case” that’s another matter completely.
lol @ Canadian oil. Canadian oil is politically drummed even harder. The drumbeat against oil has reached a feverish cacophony. I guess one good sign is that the CP just won a majority and they are 100% behind oil. Who knows how long that will last.
Caley: You’re probably right. It might be best to just get out of oil altogether. There’s plenty of other commodities that are going to rise that aren’t as “targeted” as oil.
The same with hyperinflation. But the way things are, hyperinflation is inevitable, but not necessarily emminent. There’s plenty of trading to do between now and hyperinflation.
What is your belief of oil hitting $150 based on? The fact that it has already been going up nearly non-stop for the last 2.5 years and the expectation that it would continue to follow that linear path indefinetly? I would be far more concerned about oil tanking back to $35 than confiscation. You should realize that speculation (and that’s exactly what it is) is a two way street. Think (realistically) about what can go wrong with your investment. Instead of thinking about selling if it hits a certain level, you should also be thinking of selling if prices all of a sudden slip below a certain level.
AL_Gore the Idiot: Oil will hit $150 based on my belief that the government will continue to do the wrong thing. They will continue to monetize huge deficits thus reducing the value of the dollar. All commodities will go up “in terms of dollars”.
One more thing to add to my last post. I think the markets are waiting for the debt ceiling to get raised and QE to get extended to see if there’s any chance the government will do the right thing. I think if you see the debt ceiling raised with no significant spending cuts and QE continued, commodities will shoot way up.
Oil ETF’s have been performing horribly, especially given the rise in the price of oil. I’d get rid of the ETF just because it’s not following the price of oil all that well. If you want to invest in the oil market, I’d go with the big oil companies. But I’d be worried about the stock tumbling because of perceived calming down of events in the Middle East.
As you can tell, I’m not a fan of predicting price inflation. If only there was a way to win by predicting monetary inflation. I’d win every time!
Cr113, may I ask, when did you purchase your oil ETF? Did you have the guts to do it when it was at $35 and deflation was staring us in the face with the possiblity of an economic depression? Or did you purchase it when it became obvious that the economy was picking up and the QE was starting to have an impact?
I bought it somewhere around 8 months ago at $75. The reason I bought it was because I knew the Fed was creating inflation and just about all other commodities had been rising for quite awhile. I knew it had to go up.