Synthetic Fuel: The Answer to "Peak Oil?"

[krazy_kaju]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_fuel#Economics

A synthetic fuel manufactured from natural gas (GTL), without CCS, in a large scale plant in the middle east (where gas is relatively inexpensive), is expected to be competitive with oil down to approximately $20 per barrel.^[68]

According to a December 2007 study, A medium scale (30,000 BPD) coal-to-liquids plant (CTL) sited in the US using bituminous coal, is expected to be competitive with oil down to roughly $52–56/bbl crude-oil equivalent. Adding carbon capture and sequestration to the project was expected to add an additional $10/BBL to the required selling price, though this may be offset by revenues from Enhanced Oil Recovery, or by tax credits, or the eventual sale of carbon credits. ^[70]

News reports have indicated an anticipated cost of production of less than $30 per barrel, based on a direct coal liquefaction process, and a coal mining cost of under $10/ton.^[71]

What do you think?

[xahrx]

Didn’t think Peak Oil needed an answer it was so annoying’y dumb. But, interesting to see the alternatives already popping up.

[Hard_Rain]

South Africa ran on coal-based synthetic fuel during the Apartheid era. It was affordable, but that was probably because of subsidies and socialization.

[Kakugo]

I was taught these things back in the Organic Chemistry courses. These methods have been known for at least sixty years and they do work. Right now there are only two small plants in the world making synthetic fuels: one in South Africa (Sasol-using coal) and the other in Malaysia (Petronas-using natural gas). So why aren’t more plants popping up all over the place? The reasons are quite. First of all oil is still excellent value for money. Apart from various types of fuel (gasoline, diesel, kerosene etc) you also get bithumen, waxes and a whole host of other useful chemicals out of it. Second: even with oil at US $ 100 a barrel these methods are still expensive. Third: refining. The big problem with oil is not that we are running out of it. It’s that there’s not enough refining capacity to spare. Most Western countries haven’t built a new refinery in thirty years and the refineries we have are quickly wearing out. They are old, they have limited refining capacity and they are tremendously inefficient. Aramco, the Saudi oil company, wanted to open a couple in Europe but balked when they were faced with the prospect of obtaining the necessary permits. Mind that Aramco was planning state-of-the-art facilities which would be completely superior to our ageing ones in every way, including enviromental impact.

And you think these fellows would obtain the necessary permits?

[Caley_McKibbin]

There is a factory in the U.S. making oil from turkey guts for about $80/b, which can also be switched to almost any other input. http://discovermagazine.com/2006/apr/anything-oil/

Basically, oil is now unlimited.