I’ve been toying with the idea lately that the fall of the state will come about due to market superiority, perhaps not due to some wondrous realization on the part of a large part of the populace. While libertarianism might be gaining some traction (momentum that I think we need to desperately keep up and decentralize once RP gets off the political stage), many people constantly keep falling for the same old ploys of mercantilism.
Why do I arrive at this conclusion? I look, for example, to education. The side-by-side charts for education spending and achievement tell a grim story for public schooling:
Perhaps I do not know enough and these statistics are too high-level, but it appears to me that the government has produced no improvement in education for all the extra money it has received.
Education spending has been well above inflation, over the period gas prices have fluctuated significantly (and hence have no appreciable impact), and I doubt that the state made exams harder and harder just to make itself look bad all these years. That means that there are no external factors that could explain why the increase in funding has not been matched by an increase in scores (combine this with a gigantic increase in the communications technology over the last 40 years and we should be seeing huge gains in education).
Meanwhile, I see numerous private education startups. Both ones that serve to provide all-around education (Khan academy) and specialized ones (like language-learning websites, with which I have been quite impressed lately). Heck, even Wikipedia is probably a good enough source of information these days.
Furthermore, if we decrease the duration of the artificial monopoly of textbooks we could have significantly cheaper textbooks. Heck, I could even see private startups making cheaper textbooks in the future (maybe not a bad idea for anyone out there).
I recently realized that the specific program in which I am in my school is 60% privately funded - and I pay NOTHING AT ALL to go to it! My school district has a budget of $1.3 billion and they produce essentially nothing to show for it (essentially, my school program is the only one that comes up with anything worthwhile; arguably the debate team of one other school is also good, but again, that is hardly thanks to the public education system).
I do not see the public realizing anytime soon that the government is terrible at teaching children. I do see, however, people increasingly using non-public sources of education and slowly making public schools more and more irrelevant.
Of course, we will still be up against glorious crusaders for the lower class who know nothing of comparative advantage and division of labor but who think everyone should know European History and Calculus and Physics. However, those can hopefully be marginalized.
I could also see a similar process happen in the police force, with increasing use of private security. But maybe there are unseen forces that would prevent market success in some fields. Your thoughts?