Thought Experiment

Does this make sense to anyone?

If you are an addict and buy drugs at a certain price per amount, let’s say $50 per cop, then one day you say to the dealer,

"I’ve only got $47? I can add that $3 to my next purchase."

You are given the option of lying about paying back the $3, but still paying $50 upon return for the second purchase. If the dealer gives in, then the next time you buy drugs you are more likely to ask for the discount again, even though that original $3 discount is in limbo; it was never agreed to be paid back nor explicitly forgiven. The dealer has shown that he is weak and you can exploit that in the future. However, the second time asking for the discount runs the risk of retaliation. Under both scenarios of lying or not, if you pay $50 for fix number 2, then you are still $3 short of the original agreed upon price. The chances are moderate that you will be given no more discounts, but the purchase will proceed regardless of the $3 not being paid back. A small victory. Had the dealer originally said, “No,” when the $47 purchase was offered, then second time around there certainly would be a drastically reduced chance of receiving a discount that was not granted the first time. Showing that he is stubborn and places high value on that last $3.

If the discount is granted more than twice ($47x2 rather than $47+$50) in a row you could begin to suspect that you have been paying a little over what the dealer is actually comfortable selling each unit for and pressure another discount. The odds are slightly reduced, but still moderately present, that the additional discount will be granted, but it could still be logical that the dealer would be comfortable selling the drugs at $45 per unit, but not necessarily true in practice. Because each time there is a non payment the risk of retaliation grows. If the dealer becomes stubborn at the price of $47 or $50 then, obviously, his marginal utility on the last two or three dollars is worth much more than if the $47 was granted only the first time and you are unlikely to get a further discount.

If, on the third purchase, the $47 price tag is accepted with no payments of any of the previous $3 back, it is a virtual success that $47 is still in the profit range for the dealer, then the fourth time, should you should only offer $45? Or does retaliation of the last 3 non payments of discount coming rushing back and then start the $50 cycle again? If the $47 offer is accepted even after the $45 offer is made then you have met an impasse that, mathematically isn’t likely to break, ever, but you have won a $3 per unit/purchase victory.

People use heuristics to determine their actions more often than they rationalize. One dealer may have learned a heuristic to always punish liers no matter the costs, another may just stop dealing with liers, the third might behave as you described. So, if the question was “Is this at all possible”, then yes, it may happen.

liAr, and…

no man, not at all, don’t bring other parameters into it. Inside of this scenario, not what would some random motherfucker do. Of course “there are infinte answers is possible” I’m wondering if anyone can connect the concepts in it to game theory. The lie is the lack of information on each side. They can both choose to lie. It is not mean anything other than one has more info than the other, it just so happens they both do in different ways.

Accept High Accept Low
Pay High 5 / 5 (1)

0 / 10 (2)

Pay Low 0 / 10 (3)

10 / 5 (4)

On the left is the buyer on the top (and right for scores) is the dealer. Each iteration of the game that ends up in solution (4) increases the odds of the seller accepting low. I made a few assumptions also like the seller will never lose, he will either take the low price or the high price but never a zero price. The buyer losing means he either overpays or is forced to pay up previous bills. He wins when he pays low because he doesn’t have to settle the old bill.

I don’t know how to solve this. The buyers losses in (2) and (3) are not actually equal, I think (2) is a better deal making pay high the rational choice. However, since he already paid low and won, and since each iteration increases the odds of (4) it may be rational to pay low every time, especially as the odds increase. I think it would make sense that the loss in (3) would actually get worse with each iteration of (4) though, possibly making the odds increase irrelevant.

Anyway, its way to many variables for me to figure out, I only know prisoner’s dillemas.

thanks. that is kindof what i was thinking, but have never read anything on game theory. I was trying to work out an example for myself, but different thatn the prisoners dilemma. This is similar, but the is about a single thing that they both covet to different degrees.