Time Preference, Interest Rates and Capital - A Loophole in Austrian Theory?

Well, standard Austrian Theory maintains that there’s a time preference charater in every action, because time is scarce for non omnipotent human beigns. As a consequence, present means are more valuable then future ones… So far so good… I guess that the average Austrian would say, then, that the interest rate tends to vary directly with time preference - i.e, higher time preference, higher interest rates…

But when money comes into question, things get more thorny… We know that money is a present good, in a sense that its exchange services can be consumed by its owner without delay, if desired…My main doubt is: does people, when they cut consumption (save) and hoard their money, another present good (investment here is constant), emmit a time-preference judgment?

In a sense yes: for they could be using some of money’s services (buying goods) right now, instead of later. But money, being able to buy goods at any time, is also useful when hoarded as a “uncertainty insurance”, as Mises and Hoppe usually stress. And when people hoard, in my scenario with investment constant, they also emmit another time-preference judgment: they prefer cash now then later… So, it gets indetermined: consumption goods and money are present goods, but hoardings, as I understand them, show two time preference judgments.

Recently I read Prof Hullsmann’s article on Revista Procesos de Mercado, where he criticizes Rothbard’s theory of interest rate determination (proportion between consumption and future goods expenditures - investment) in the grounds that Austrians cannot this way mantain that time preferences determine the interest rate - it is then determined by consumptiion/investment ratio, with a loose link with time preference. I believe that if Hullsman is right, the great link between time preference, interest and capital in Austrian theory is weakened by a great extent.

I really would appreciate some help on this issue, and I hope I made myself clear…

False.

Obvious example: Live Grenades.

Less Obvious: Savings exist because the time preference people have for money causes it to exceed the value of all present goods.

More generally, all preferences are subjective and change across time.

If people are hoarding cash underneath their bed, it is because they don’t believe that spending is in the present would be a wise decision (perhaps due to economic instability). They also distrust of the banking industry’s ability to administer their money and protect it. But, there is a time-preference factor involved. They are hoarding their money against future uncertainty. The time-preference is that the chance of something which would require large sums of money in the future is high enough for them to believe that the money they are hoarding will be more valuable in the future than it will be in the present.

Don’t get your point… People always try to achieve their ends as fast as possible, so present means are more valuable, ceteris paribus…

The thing is: Can there be a time preference judgment when someone cut consumption of present goods in favor of money (another present good)? We know that there is one if he/she does not invest ythe horads…

This one above was for Snowflake

what does choosing one present good over another have to do with time preference as such?

if i choose less pizzas, in favour of more money (or some other present good, more hamburgers). It is because my value scale has changed. I don’t need to refer to the phenomenon of time-preference to explain this

But maybe I don’t understand your question. Feel free to ask again. We will keep going at it, till we get it :slight_smile:

Get your point, but the person would be exchanging consumption goods (present goods) for another present good (money) with a perspective of appreciation… I don’t believe it shows a time preference judgment, only an entreprenurial profit appraisal…

No, they are choosing to opt out of the use of their money for present consumption, and instead save it for unplanned future consumption. They do this because they believe that saving it for what they believe to be a high chance of a disaster happening is more valuable than whatever they could buy presently.

I think you understood my question. My concern is with time preference’s implications fot interest rate theory… If there is no time preference jugment in cutting consumption in favor of hoarding, how can we mantain simultaneously that time preferences determine interest rate and stay with Rothbard’s theory (consumption/investment ratio)?

is the answer that the market rate of interest is not high enough to cover the risk plus time-preference of loaning out the funds and being repaid with the interest versus keeping the money ‘at hand’/hoarded.

the would be capitalist looking for investment funds, would need to offer to repay at sufficient interest to cover the hoarders risk premium and also his time-preference premium, and turn him from a hoarder to a lender.

thus if the deal is struck at some interest rate. time-prefence has a role.

if the deal is not struck, then between the two people there is no interest rate hit upon.

in this way all the interest rates have time-preference built in. in this way the market rate of interest has time-preference built in.

Time preferences manifest themselves through the consumption/savings ratio and not through the consumption/investment ratio. The former determines the shape of the structure of production. Furthermore, there is also a liquidity preference where money becomes a substitute for goods; this is most clearly expressed by international trade. A nation will sell its goods abroad in order to receive cash for further (greater) future consumption, and as such, would express a fall in time preferences (not sure how this works in our current fiat monetary nationalism system).

The physical nature of a good does not determine its status as either a current or future good. Sugar, for example, can be a producer good, consumer good, or may even act as a medium of exchange.

In MES what Rothbard calls savings excludes hoards, savings are defined as effective supply of present goods for investors… The thing is: can we say that when people hoard they are using money as a present good or a future good? It could be both…

Another example: if, consumption mantianed, people liquidate investments in favor of hoards, can we say that their time preference has gotten higher?

If we consider money hoards as a present good, then yes. If we consider money hoards future goods as well, we cannot say that the interest rate effect caused by this change has something due to time preference… Unless if we say that hoards in this case are present goods in relation to the investments liquidated…

¿En que número se encuentra el artículo?

[edit.: Vol. V, No. 2]

2008, n2

http://www.jesushuertadesoto.com/madre2.htm