Okay so you think they’re just gonna leave all that liquidity in there despite that they’ve promised otherwise?
Of course. What does their promise mean?
First, start shorting the fuck out of 10 year bonds then.
Ad hominem.
Second, what’s this based on?
Bernanke is a well known liar. Do a youtube search [or this forum] and you’ll find him saying that qe is printing money in one vid, and not printing money in another. Even Jon Stewart mocked him for that. There are many other instances.
Can you give me two examples of when the Fed promised to pursue a monetary policy and then didn’t?
You miss the point. They lie about everything.
1. http://www.ktradionetwork.com/government/federal-reserve-secrets-and-lies/
2. Bernanke, March 28, 2007:
“Overall, the economy appears likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over the coming quarters. As the inventory of unsold new homes is worked off, the drag from residential investment should wane. Consumer spending appears solid, and business investment seems likely to post moderate gains,” he said.
“At this juncture, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the sub-prime market seems likely to be contained.”
Liar liar, pants on fire.
3. Greenspan:
“I would engage in some form of syntax destruction, which sounded as though I were … answering the question, but, in fact, had not,” Greenspan admits, with a chuckle.
So what? You come up with Green-speak.
Alan Greenspan: Otherwise known as Fed-speak.
Maria Bartiromo: What is it?
Alan Greenspan: It’s a–a language of purposeful obfuscation to avoid certain questions coming up, which you know you can’t answer, and saying–“I will not answer or basically no comment is, in fact, an answer.” So, you end up with when, say, a congressman asks you a question, and don’t wanna say, “No comment,” or “I won’t answer,” or something like that. So, I proceed with four or five sentences which get increasingly obscure. The congressman thinks I answered the question and goes onto the next one.
“But what would often happen is you’d get two newspapers with opposing headlines, coming out of the same hearing,” Stahl remarks. “I succeeded. I succeeded,” Greenspan says.
4. at the beginning of this year [2011], “Helicopter” Ben Bernanke predicted his 5th “U.S. economic recovery” [in the last two and a half years] (to supposedly begin in the 2nd half of this year).
Here’s a good rule of thumb, developed by Peter Schiff, to tell when Bernanke is lying: You can see his lips move.
If they’re so blase about inflation why did they bother lying?
To fool people like you.
The thing is, the man in the street doesn’t like going to the supermarket and gas station and paying double and triple what he used to. It’s just a quirk of theirs, hard to get, I know. But that’s how they are.
That’s why the Fed has been relentlessly brainwashing the public that inflation is good. I bet even you believe that 2% a year inflation is a wonderful thing. Lately they are working hard to sell the idiocy that we “need” 5% a year inflation. Fifty years ago nobody thought inflation was good, and no politician dared defend it. They have done their work well, through their university brainwashing and their TV brainwashing, so that now people who think inflation is a good thing and printing money is a good thing also think they are very sophisticated and enlightened for having those views.
Once they lie about policy once, they’ll loose their ability to influence monetary expectations (their biggest tool).
Biggest tool to do what? You misunderstand what their goals are, and thus don’t understand what their biggest tool is. Their goal is to give plenty of money to the US govt and to their friends. Their biggest tool for that is the [digital] printing press. they could not care less about monetary expectations or anything else. They lie to quiet down the masses the best they can.
Why would they throw that away?
Because they have bigger fish to fry.
TIPS people? The TIPS spread is the spread of treasury bonds over inflation-indexed treasuries. It’s what the market expects inflation to be. Not some government forecaster.
You confuse inflation indexed tresuries with real inflation. The market expects the TIPS to rise by 2%, meaning the govt will admit to that much with their lying statistics. But the real rate of inflation will be much higher.
And yeah, I’m gonna put a little bit of weight on the forecasts of millions of private investors who have shitloads of money riding on this who have the incentive to know and analyse all the available information
Then you would be bankrupt many times over. History, past and recent, is full of people you describe losing tons of money all the time. Where were you when the housing bubble burst? Where were you when the big banks all needed bailouts and Lehman Brothers went bankrupt? They are “private investors with tons of money riding on this who had the incentive to know and analyze all the available information” .And guess what? They lost it all. In one day. Do you need a link? Is this new information you haven’t heard of?
Also, do you have an internet connection, or a public library or newspaper stand in your area? I imagine not, or else you would know that as we speak “private investors with tons of money riding on this who had the incentive to know and analyze all the available information” have lost 50% [50%!] of the money they lent to Greece. They stand to lose it all, too, unless Greece gets a bailout.
. But if you think you know better than the rest of the market, put your money where your mouth is.
Ad hominem.
It’s not an ad hominem at all. It’s just… slander.