The article discusses the theory of an analyst for Russian Intel, Igor Panarin, who since about the 1990s has been pushing the theory that the United States will break apart into six subnations by the end of 2010. He gives the probability of this occurance as somewhere between 45% and 55%. His reasoning is:
He seems to believe that immigration has resulted in a United States which totally lacks any kind of ethnic unity (e.g. we’re not just “Americans” anymore, but “Mexican-Americans”, “African-Americans”, et cetera), that the economy is worse off than is being reported in the media, and that (I guess) Americans now expect to get everything handed to them on a silver plate without ever having to work for it. This is compounded with the fact that the United States government rests beneath a mountain of (ever growing) debt which Panarin (quite accurately) describes as a “pyramid scheme” ready to collapse. [Note: I was going to paste a link from MSNBC. The article from MSNBC was stating that the United States was facing a debt “time bomb” which could potentially render the government unable to make even interest payments on the National Debt. The article, however, has been removed by MSNBC and I can’t find it on the Washington Post. I did, however, find this article from the Washington Post which states that US National Debt could potentially increase by another $2 Trillion this year.] Furthermore, according to Panarin,
I’m curious as to what people’s thoughts are on this. Anyone have any thoughts that could shed new light on all of this?
Given that our economic troubles seem to be worsening, I think you will start to see quite the backlash coming soon. Considering how well armed American civilians are, it may very well be a very violent backlash, too.
I find it to be a completely unfounded idea. Has the guy even lived in the U.S.? There really are no differences in any state you go to, so why would any of them want to break from others? The tax rates in all the states are extremely similar. They all get their “fair” share of Federal money. There is really no one section of the country for another section to blame! It is one big fascist state, that exists because people are too apathetic about it. People like big government. They mostly blame big corporations for the problems. And corporations are not restricted by state boundaries. I am surprised the Wall Street Journal would post such propaganda.
People don’t care because they don’t have to. Right now as bad as things are most people live a relatively stable life. Perhaps living conditions have declined but the fact is they can still make a living. They have no incentive to change things because everything is relatively stable and people generally don’t like change. If the dollar does collapse then I could imagine that things would get very messy. Since this is essentially how Hitler came to power.
Things would have to devolve to the point of the old Soviet Union: alcoholic soldiers begging for food, black market eclipsing the “legal” one, currency worthless. This may happen once the entitlement spending really kicks in and all the government employees find their pension funds were invested in just more government IOU’s and crackpot “green” investments. I would think we are at least a quarter to a half century from that point.
Still, I remember my roommate and I watching the Berlin Wall get taken down on TV. I told him the Soviet Bloc had 5 more years. He said 10. It was all over in one.
I don’t know about this. I don’t see the Rust Belt enacting right-to-work laws anytime soon. California is bankrupt unless the feds give it money. Outside of Hollywood/Malibu, many of its net tax producers are emigrating. I foresee California splitting along northern-southern lines at some point. Spanish is practically a job requisite south of Ft. Lauderdale and not just for construction crews. When the Castro family finally dies, I don’t expect the Cuban emigre’s to head back; rather, a de facto Cuban annexation will eventually become de jure, except the feds will find their tax laws are largely ignored.
There are a lot of centrifugal forces at work in the USA. Nothing lasts forever.
You’re not from the south are you? There’s still extreme resentment toward the rest of the country in places like Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma and to a lesser extent S. Carolina and Tennessee. These states are filling up with Mexican immigrants, many of whom are illegal, who don’t like our federal government. In Texas, caucasian people are officially a minority majority (minorities outnumber caucasians) and soon Mexican will be the majority flat-out. Not to mention many of these southern conservative states who dont have the massive public works programs of the northeast and west coasts are really pissed off that their federal tax money is going to union workers in Detroit, and financially irresponsible mayors in California and NE, while many of our states enjoy yet another year of surplus (Texas). Plus northerners seem to want to ignore what Sherman did to the south in the civil war… but these people never forget. 150 years doesn’t forgive Atlanta burning to the ground. Or so I hear
All these factors will lead to a rebellion. Not next year, but soon enough. Only in this civil war, the South wins (where is most of the army from/based/trained? yep, these southern states). Plus these southern states are now manufacturing powerhouses as well.
Anyway, yes this guy is wrong about the timing, but not the situation. It’s coming, and when it comes it will come quick, just like the berlin wall.
I for one hope that the South doesn’t forget (some of, since not everyone in NH is minarchist / limited-government or libertarian / anarchists) New Hampshire & The Free Staters, who would probably support The South’s historical redemption, methinks.
I’d sure hate to have some of my relatives refer to me as a dirty Yank, although they might already whenever I’m not around :\
As for California, one of my friend’s is intent on moving to there for film school, and I’ve been thinking about cluing him in on the situation there (and why although Maryland sucks, California might be worse when they go bankrupt).
On the other hand, he is very liberal, so maybe it would be futile gesture on my part…
Of course there is animosity between the South and the North, but not enough for another secession. The South does not blame its current problems on the North. And there is no reason to believe the Mexican-Americans would want Texas to secede either. Everything I have heard is that second and third generation Mexican-Americans do not like the illegals either.
Did anyone read the “sphere of influences” sections in the article? For instance, the russian author said that Texas would be merged or heavily influenced by Mexico, California would be controled by China, the east coast would join the EU, and everyone else would go to Canada… For some strange reason this all seems all wrong, except maybe part of the U.S. joining the EU.
This reminds me of Blade Runner, where Ridley Scott projected high IQ Han Chinese doing genetic engineering in LA street bazaars. How quaint. I’m a Ridley Scott fan, but Hispanics (truly a misnomer–we are actually talking about Central American Indians) are completely off the radar of the elite. They have no idea how broad and deep this wave of immigration is and what sort of social forces have been unleashed.
I’m from Texas and still live here, and this is false. The Mexicans here, legal or not, want Texas to become part of Mexico, or independent.
Current problems? Texas is floating in money and has been for years. Wall Street, Detriot, and California aren’t our problems, yet somehow we’re footing the bill for the stuipidity. Granted, so are the people up there, but we didnt ask for union to run the auto companies into the ground. Hell, the southern states brought the japanese companies here to show you how a good non-union auto company can make money manufacturing in the US. We didnt bankrupt CA, but we’re all going to pay for it. I’ve been to NY for conferences, and when I’m told I am not qualified to plug in the presentation projector and have to wait on a ‘union certified electrician’, I understand why wall street fell apart. Its just a different mindset down here than up north, and they’re not compatible. This will eventually lead to revolution.
“You’re not from the south are you? There’s still extreme resentment toward the rest of the country in places like Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma and to a lesser extent S. Carolina and Tennessee.”
I can confirm as a Virginian-in-exile that we werent too happy with the outgrowth of Sodom on the Potomac into the rest of Virginia.
" All these factors will lead to a rebellion. Not next year, but soon enough. Only in this civil war, the South wins (where is most of the army from/based/trained? yep, these southern states). Plus these southern states are now manufacturing powerhouses as well."
At this point I’d almost welcome a repeat. So many of the states in the deep north are so busy disarming the people that it wouldn’t be much of a fight.
That said, I would welcome a split of the country. Let us establish market anarchy in Virginia and the rest of The South. Let the yanks in Detriot whine that their crapmobile empire is crumbling while our car industry in The South florishes.
