That’s very impressive. Is everything you picked all winners, or do you also have a list of picks that went sour?
By the way, do you use fundamental analysis, and also read up on Benjamin Graham and such?
Nice.
If you do not read anymore of my post IGNORE the person that said to buy Facebook stock. Remember what happened Myspace, AOL, and AskJeeves? Yep.
If I were you, I would hedge the money against inflation by converting it to bullion, then I would buy land. Do you have any land?
Don’t buy stocks. And especially don’t buy US stocks. And especially don’t buy US tech stocks. And especially, especially do NOT buy facebook. What a trollish suggestion.
Clayton -
ya i guess your right its speculation.
think blue - thats all the stocks i have ever bought. I might be forgetting one, but i dont think so. I have been given stocks from family as gifts because they know i enjoy the market, but those are always spur of the moment investsments and its NOT MY MONEY hah. they are all just like 100$ worth of stocks too.
i got advanced auto parts from my grandparents. they had called me in nov and asked me what stock i wanted for christmas and i had been looking at autoparts. it actually did pretty well. went up like 30%. My uncle works at jp morgan so he has given me jpm stock a few times, but i dont really count those. I only count my $$$. I’ve been given like 10 different stocks in this fashion.
ill look at fundamentals really just for current price evaluation, and it is a major part of when i buy just not really if i buy. Like i dont like 20$ for facebook, i think a 14$ valuation is closer to a fair price i just dont want to risk seeing if it ever goes that low. I think it is more likely that it goes to 26 before it goes to 14.
And no i dont read up on anyones opinion. Ive done it before (never acted on it), and have done some ‘mock’ buys just to see what happens. Its never good. I think other peoples opinions just cloud my judgement and create a personal biased opinion. Though, if its financial NEWS i pay close attention.
Its more about my personal experience with the products that determine if i buy. Like if yall experienced what i did when i first used windows or had an ipod with the experiences of pervious mp3 players i had you would have the same opinions. Or what i feel when i ate my first chipotle burrito YUM! But i wouldnt of bought chipotle if i didnt think they were decently managed.
I think its more about my discipline in not buying than buying though because there is hundreds of stocks i really wanted. Out of the hundred to two that i wanted in the past decade maybe 10-15 did as well or better then the ones i bought. While the vast majority acted more typical to the market with plenty of losses. I used to live in vegas for like a year and played poker for a living. I didnt make a SINGLE bet on any game table game besides poker, but everyday i wanted to. I only put $5 in a slot machine while i was waiting on someone to have lunch with. My favorite is sports betting and i only made 2 bets in the year i was there. Even though i thought i had an edge on a game or two a day.
haha ok. we will see. id still buy US stocks over any other markets! youd be crazy not to. There are a number of foreign stocks that are just as good maybe better, but our market is king (end of sentence)
alright lets think. you decide, whats the probability it goes the way of myspace, aol or askjeeves?
*edit to be clear what im saying. my math was all wrong haha.
if facebook has a 80% failure rate.
then in order to make a profitable decision you need the stock to you need to think there is a 21% chance that the stock will worth $36.01 (if purchase price is $20)
thats not even considering the chance if it gets to apple, google or microsoft status.
****edit MORE MATH if you buy for $20. and there are only two options for the stock, bankrupt or be worth $400. then all you need to make a profitable decision is 5.000000001% chance that is goes to $400 and a 95% bankrupt.
Yes, its a bet. Its speculative. Youre buying it based on the subjective evaluation you outlined in your earlier post, hoping it gets to be the new hot thing and you can sell it for more. Thats fine. But its not any kind of investment.
and $400 is an absurdly high arbitrary valuation, considering it hasnt done anything to be worth $20. The p/e ratio tells you that, how much profit would they actually have to make n order to be worth $400/share? I dont even feel like running the numbers.
but isnt everything a bet? if it wasnt a bet there would be no return on investment.
*edit - when you arent taking in account time. I dont think its crazy to say in 10 years it could be worth that. I dont think its crazy to say it can grow as fast as any other company.
I’m not going to argue semantics. If you buy a stock because fndamental analysis tells you that it is undervalued, it isnt a “bet.” that doesnt mean there isnt risk involved. What it means is that the company is profitable enough to make dividends that will pay for the investment within a time span that appeals to a given class of investor. The profits are obtained by holding the stock and receiving dividends. Yes, you can sell the stock for more later but only because the underlying fundamentals continue to make it a good buy for a specific investor class. These fundamentals are the profitability of the company, and to a much lesser degree, the assets that it holds minus the liabilities, i.e. Net worth. These profits eventually come out as dividends, but sometimes the board reinvests them in the company, and that still adds value to the stock, because those investments are designed to increase profits, which eventually become dividends. When a values investor believes he can sell the stock for more later, he asks himself if someone like him would buy the stock at that price.
Its not crazy to suggest that there would be so many dollars floaing around that facebook stock would be worth 400 of them per share. But that doesnt make it a good investment for the OP, or anyone else.
haha if you think comparing overpriced paper to gold is proof of a sound investment its crazy. Gold isnt going up in value as much as the dollar is getting worse. I think gold is an alright investment, but it is still a risk. What do you think would happen to gold if the fiat currencies of the world decide to start having discipline and stop printing money? what if the fed gets audited and congress makes it illegal to print another dollar without 75% majority vote and presidential approval. Gold prices would dive. if the people actually had a currency they wanted and valued then gold would only be jewelry nothing more.
Grant, why (and please be very specific) do you think $14 is a fair value price for Facebook?
let me refute this invest in gold fallacy real fast because it goes against the WHOLE REASON FOR A GOLD STANDARD. If gold gained value as fast as yall are suggesting then it would be TERRIBLE money. Do yall not see that? Money HAS to be stable in order for business to operate profits/losses successfully. I’m for the gold standard for the exact OPPOSITE reason you are arguing is good about gold. Yall are staying it gains value fast, i say its stable! That it doesnt lose value and it doesnt gain value outside of demand from a rising population (at least for now that we have no good use for it outside of jewelry and its intrinsic value).
I can assure you nobody on this forum likes gold because we feel it gains value fast. We understand what gold is and is not.
prime - most of it is a personal opinion on saying its $14 rather than $11, $12, $18, or $100. might as well say i pulled it out of the air.
i based my opinion off what almost every analysis out there that ONLY looks at the numbers without a biased opinion of the actual company its considered $7-$10. I agree if its just the numbers its 7-10. I have it on the low end.
So who is going to allow facebook to get down that low? i dont think anyone ever until they come out with terrible news. So if you want to buy the stock you are going to have to overpay a little. I bought it at 21 monday, and 20 on friday morning. So obviously i think its worth more then $14. Now when i brought $14 up because i think its fair to say it could go down that low. $14 is more of a fair price for a $10 stock then the $20 i paid.
This is a website that only competes with google for most hits per day. as of right now google makes like 600% more money per user then facebook makes. Google has already paved a business model of how to generate money (even yahoo).
prime - evidently you arent reading the post to invest in gold, and its nice to see that you can speak for everyone on what they know and do not know.
Grant, i reread the thread just to double check myself. Here is what I saw:
Malachi - “The first part is your savings. That should be mostly gold and silver”
- “Buying precious metals exchanges risk for stability, meaning youre much less likely to lose purchasing power but you stand to gain less purchasing power over time.”
Clayton - “Gold is the only rational vehicle for long-term savings.”
Prime - “I feel the best way to do this is with physical gold to protect against central bank printing”
Conservative Libertarian - “I would hedge the money against inflation by converting it to bullion”
And finally, there was a chart posted without any commentary.
Now Grant, please tell me where you got the notion that some on here are making the claim to buy gold because, according to your interpretation, we think it “gains value fast.”
umm so you are rejecting the whole premise of the whole OP? ‘make money’… please tell me how gold, the commodity we all assume is the standard of money, ‘makes money’?
if it makes money then we should all go buy fistfuls of gold and retire. Only trade makes money
Grant, the premise of the OP was “what should I do with my money.” That is in fact the title of the thread. When I say to buy gold, as did most of the other posters, it was as a form of savings, a protection. I’m not necessarily trying to get rich or make a bunch of money. Again, you are creating ideas in your head that aren’t stated anywhere.
Now as for your question about how would gold actually make money, I do think it is possible now because most people don’t own gold, don’t understand gold, and thus it is very undervalued, for lack of a better term. I predict that some day there will be a return to the gold standard, and that if you own physical prior to that, you may in fact actually increase you purchasing power.