Cause of Today's Economic Crises: Too Much Thrift

It wasn’t a stimulus. That’s the point. It wasn’t consumer driven. It was millions of spoons digging a hole for no point other than to provide a job that has no production. Without production to consumers then those industries do not get any money from real savings put back into the industry. It was credit-driven from the start and not savings driven. There wasn’t any money in the housing sector like everybody thought. That’s why houses and thus mortgages were loaned out but not paid back. There were NO savings to pay back the credit. No consumers - who have savings - to pay back the credit. If there is no consumers, in other words, no money, no savings, going into the housing sector, but houses are being built, but no real savings going in, then that’s not a stimulus. That’s not being productive. There was NO money going into the housing sector. If there was no money, no real savings going into the housing sector, then how is anybody going to make money off of it? If some people are not getting any money in return for building those houses, then how those those house builders going to not only get money in return for their labor but how are they going to remain unemployed? From the very beginning, because it was built on credit and not on savings, which goes against the whole title of this thread because you assume there are savings when obviously there was NOT.

If I go and buy bread but don’t have any money how am I supposed to get that bread? If I don’t give the store money for their bread, then how is the store going to employ anybody? If the store doesn’t get money back for making its bread, then is that store going to remain open? Are there going to be jobs at a place that doesn’t get any returns on it’s product because nobody is going into the store with money to buy the bread?

The Fed. needs to stop artificially lowering interest rates. The Fed. needs to stop messing with the money supply thereby devaluing the dollar, making people poorer because their dollar is now worth less. The gov’t needs to get out of the market and stop regulating and skewing/distorting where the real market demands are, ie. Fannie and Freddie Mac (gov’t institution) made available high risk loans but since it was backed by the gov’t it seemed secured when it wasn’t because of the burst of the bubble shows it wasn’t. The effect of the Fed. Reserve interest rate manipulation creates an artificial demand that is credit driven (because the loan rates are low) and is not consumer driven (the loan rates are low not because consumers are driving them low but because the fed. drove them low). When the Fed. drives the interest rates lower than what the actual consumer market is demanding, then loans are given out without anybody to actually buy up the products that are being made based on the loans, ie. credit.

The natural interest rate goes low because it is a signal that NO consumers are buying or no investors are investing. So the natural interest rate lowers and consumers/investors are encouraged by such low rates to buy up loans. Yet when rates are artificially lowered, it is NOT because consumers/investors are NOT buying the loans. They are and have been buying up the loans. So the artificial lowering is a false signal. It makes cheaper, riskier loans available for people that would not be actually getting the loans if the natural interest rate was present. Because since consumers/investors have been buying up the loans, then the natural interest rate would be going higher. It would signal to the investors that, that part of the market isn’t getting the consumer demand anymore, so, the investors invest in another part of the market where interest rates are lower. The marginal values of some investors go to these lower interest rate markets/products because they didn’t have the money for the higher interest rate market (because they have to pay back more on the loan and don’t want to take the risk of not being able to pay it all back). So these investors move to lower interest rate markets that if naturally lower, are thereby caused by consumer demand. That part of market has actual buyers for the product. It is not artificially or distorted that there are consumers present (like when the fed. lowers it), but that there are actual consumers driving that interest rate lower. And when that part of the market has too many consumers compared to supply, then the interest rates naturally go back up to balance off the supply and demand. Then the investors move to another part of the economy and invest where lower interest rates exist, meaning, taking the risk on a product that has high supply and consumers if they keep buying the product, the supply drains, and then interest rates naturally go up. Investors move.

But the Fed. is artificially lowering interest rates thereby creating malinvestments and eventually unemployment because there are no people actually present to buy those loaves of bread.

Then you will face hungry people roaming the neigborhoods. We will need to hire lots and lots of guards and buy lots and lots of guns. This does create employment though (guards and gun manufacturers). Things will finally settle down and then consolidation will start again. You will be back to the same point (centralization) but much faster this time.

Mansoor

So you are saying it was a consumer driven stimulus?

Mansoor

Please don’t act as if you don’t have a theory Mansoor. You’re theory and everybody elses theory is based on the facts. Confront the theory with your theory. Both are relying on the facts so not necessary to confront the facts when we are all relying on facts.

No, no they have not. If you announce that you will eliminate unemployment insurance and welfare in the long-term, then those on unemployment insurance will begin job searching while those with jobs will put aside money for the event that they become unemployed. That is basic economics. Individuals are utility maximizing, so they won’t starve themselves to death. You are saying that these individuals will purposefully starve themselves to death because they are myopic. This simply isn’t true.

The fact of the matter is that theory is superior to “laboratory tests,” since you need theory in order to interpret empirical data. You can see if theory is correct or incorrect by examining it and determining if the theory is sound.

Your “solutions” fall drastically short, since they call for a more active government. As any economist will tell you, government is incredibly inefficient. Fiscal stimulus always comes too late or too early and it usually is too small or too large. The same goes with monetary stimulus.

Real solutions - e.g. bringing about a free market currency while freeing the market in order to make wages and prices flexible - don’t encounter the same problems that your “solutions” do. Free market currency producers can see changes in profits as a result of inflation/deflation long before government bureaucrats and economists record them. Thus, monetary/fiscal stimulus comes at just the right time, assuming a free market currency. Moreover, flexible wages and prices allow for readjustment even in the absence of such free market currency producers.

Please re-read that. I apologize is long but it is a big topic. Nowhere did I say it was consumer driven. I said in a natural interest rate market it is consumer driven, but we both know the interest rates are not natural but are artificially derived. That’s not even an issue. The Fed knows it artificially manipulates the interest rates. That’s its job.

Look at my last question in that post:

But the Fed. is artificially lowering interest rates thereby creating malinvestments and eventually unemployment because there are no people actually present to buy those loaves of bread?

No people is no consumers. There were no consumers to buy those loaves of bread. There never was a market for those loaves of bread. The market was pushed into a sector of the economy by artificially lowered interest rates where there was nobody to actually buy the product. If the natural interest rate was present it would have been much, much higher long ago, driving investors into other sectors of the economy thereby avoiding unemployment, malinvestments, and yes the starving children if we went to get that emotive.

Eliminate the FED. That is your solution. Ok. Lets try it. Lets get on with the experiment. This really means dissolution of state. Or least a very, very, very, very weak central government.

Do you see that?

Mansoor

What’s so bad about a weaker central state?

I dis-agree. If two theories are competing and one explains the data better you should accept the new theory or at least modify the old to accept the new ideas.

Mansoor

Looks like I was right (you never did answer my question about scarcity, btw). You don’t understand one smidgen of economic theory, and attempting to reason with you about advanced concepts like capital theory is like trying to teach algebraic topology to a toddler who can’t yet count to 3.

Read up on the basics, then come back.

Nothing in itself. But the path from central to de-central will be very chaotic and dis-orderly.

Ok. So what. So the USA ends up as 50 states with 50 currencies. Fine. But then process of consolidation will start again (due to greshams law and fighting between the states). And you will be back to one state and one currency with the same problem at hand. Ok. so what. So we keep going through this cycle over and over again. May that’s the best we can do!

Is there a better way? Must we expend our precious energies going through these cycles?

Mansoor

Do you agree with what I said? I mean it’s factual. Nobody wanted the loaves of bread. The capital could have been invested in other parts of the economy thereby keeping people working and the society on the path of prosperity still instead of destruction. Agreed?

You are not getting the whole point of this discussion. There is too much capital out there and consumer demand by itself is unable to handle it! And if we continue on this path of over-saving. The system will self-destruct via a deflationary collapse.

Mansoor

Then why do you disagree? And the new ideas are theories. Yet new data on the other hand can only be interpreted by a thought (which is an idea, a theory - same thing). It’s not that the theory we are using has been proven wrong. It’s simply not being used, and you are a perfect example of not following this theory. There are many people not following the theory we are espousing. It’s time to throw out the old theory of the central planners and actually listen to the consumer who drives the real market.

I think my theory agrees with the data better.

Mansoor

That is the point. You assume there is too much capital out-there, but the housing bubble proves that there was NO capital in the housing sector. That’s why nobody bought the houses, bankruptcies ensued, capital that was diverted to the housing sector had nobody to buy the houses so nobody got paid back on their investments, and so the market collapsed in that sector of the economy. That’s what happened. That’s a fact. I mean are you going to argue that people didn’t go bankrupt on their houses and that people paid back all their mortgages? You know they didn’t. That’s why it collapsed.

That’s the market. The market is ONLY about consumers. The market ONLY exists because there are people who want to exchange for what another person has. You can’t make bread when nobody wants to buy it. So make butter instead because people do want butter. The market doesn’t collapse and producers get returns on their investments. win-win.

There were no savings. We proved that already. Mortgages are IOU’s, MBS and CDS are derivatives (not savings), and these were not paid off because they are credit, not savings. They were not paid back because nobody had any savings to pay off this part of the economy. It was credit driven, NOT savings driven.

Yes because the theory you are using caused it.

Your problem, really. And, regarding your theatre example… do you think it is some knock-down proof that if asked to invest 100,000 gold pieces they will not accept 90,000 as a rational individual? I cannot see how you can so blatantly ignore PPM.

Umm, that’s not what we mean when we say “Free Market Money.” Do you even understand what it is you’re debating against?

No. I don’t think vast majority of people will accept such a deal. Just ask your friends, co-workers, relatives, etc.

Mansoor

Then please tell me in detail what do you mean. Please give examples and scenarios of how might it work out.

Mansoor