Cause of Today's Economic Crises: Too Much Thrift

So in your omniscience you decide what is considerd “needed investment” and un-needed investment? Do you understand you are making a statement that only a divine being, or God could make?

If the money supply does not change there can simply be no universal over-investment. The investment comes directly from savings. If a single company over-produces and finds that there is a surplus of products, they will either correct that or be purged from the market. In either case the destruction is isolated to that specific group of capital, not to the economy as a whole. If purged from the market they will no longer be wasting precious natural resources.

Likewise it is entirely nonesensical to state that under the conditions where the money supply is not changed, that universal over investment would occur. In such scenario’s investment only occurs by the will of the consumer, if universal investment occurs than it is because of the consumers that it did so. An economy is nothing more then addressing the ends/needs/desires of individual consumers, in the case of universal over-investment the economy is doing specifically what it was designed to do. Satisfying the needs/demands of consumers. In such a case no bust would ever occur.

Without credit new business expansions cannot occur unless savings/investment is involved!

You are no divine being to judge the decisions of other individuals. To make on their behalf decisions that are considerd “needed” or not “needed”. Your error is you presume to know whats best for other people more then they themselves do. You also argue that over-investment occurs but you cannot coherently explain why. This is the “Animal Spirits” argument of Keynes that you subscribe to.

That wasn’t the point I was making, GO back and actually re-read the statement that was made. At least in that context I was not referring to the GD.

And what makes you think your projects are desireable by consumers? By what market metric’s will your arbitrary projects be judged? If you knew what projects would be universally desirable by individuals why not just start such a business on the market right now? No intervention is necessary. If you knew what projects consumers wanted you could start it tomorrow and be a billionair within a few short years.

Oh, but you can’t because you don’t know what the needs/wants/desires are of every man women and child on earth. Your statement advocates government planning.

And how will you pay for such arbitrary projects?

How? Explain to me how an increased purchasing power is harmful please. Yes a sudden rise in purchasing power disrupts economic calculation, just like a sudden drop. But an overall gradual rise in purchasing power is harmful how? Please address this for us, we have asked countless times.

Why is it bad that a consumer can buy more with their dollar? Why is it bad that the economy overall eventually produces more? Why is it bad that a hoarder, thanks to the law of marginal utility, will not keep his billions in the bank but invest it some where?

Your assumption are

A) Hypothetical

B) Logically incorrect

C) Not an actual example of the problems observed in reality.

It seems to me that it is you who refuses to acknowledge the Austrian argument. When will you actually attempt to critique us rather then make assertions?

Thats exactly what we are doing my friend.

Again your omniscience precedes you. You attempt to decide on behalf of others how much savings is too much, and how much is not enough.

Also please back up your assertion about foreign savings. I think you will find that those countries where savings is the highest, we witnessed the greatest economic growth over the past 10 years. Ironic that your own argument goes against you.

If any school of economics looks globally, it is most definitely the Austrians. You don’t need to keep repeating this. We are considering the global consequences. Gradual global deflation is a sign of economic growth. Not a sign of armageddon.

No Deflation makes the gains that much greater. It does not in any way un-motivate investment. Especially if there is a large sum of cash waiting around in a savings stock pile. People will see the excess cash and, considering the marginal theory of value, will be more willing to depart with portions of their cash holding for investment.

It cannot be shown in any study that savings is universally a cash hoarding mechanism. Instead it is shown around the world that savings is typically held in some type of investment vehicle, in one form or another.

You consistently seem to ignore a very fundamental point.

The MORE savings a man has, the MORE likely he is to invest. The LESS SAVINGS a man has the LESS LIKELY he is to invest. Why is this so difficult?

And they made too many bread factories becuase the investment was directed arbitrarily, and not by the consumers. People did not “WAKE UP” and say hey we have too many bread factories. It was those business’s who came into action with poor business models or with projects that the consumers were not interested in. Normally bankers hold a very high criteria for lending money to new business’s, that is no longer the case under a cheap credit policy. The business’s came into being due to easy credit. Business’s were able to expand on credit, not on profit, revenue, or savings.

Chloe asked you this

It would seem to me sir that you are more concerned with being right, then actually finding the truth about how these mechanisms work and function.

You name it. It’s all explained. It follows logically, and follows empirically. Now if you disagree with us, please address the holes in our reasoning, and disabuse your exhausting attempt at repeating your assertions. Argument ad nauseum will not grant merit to your argument my friend.

Deflatrion cannot spiral out of control. Deflation is directed by consumers, individuals, where inflation is directed by authoritarianism.

There is no such thing as deflation spiraling out of control. Are you saying that eventually a unit of exchange would just dissapear from circulation? Such an argument is preposterous. People will always continue to use and prefer a unit of exchange to bartering.

People will never willingly abandon money, they will only replace one type of money for another.

Again your assertion, and you fail to recognize that increased savings literally equates to increased investment.

We don’t need to teach any such thing, and any such direction would be at a detriment for the economy. The economy is designed to satisfy Monsoor’s preferences on the structure of prices, investments, ect…

The economy is designed to satisfy everyone else out there. People decide for themselves, based on their situation, what volume of savings is appropriate, and what is not.

Hoarding is great, please do it. Hoarding immediately repairs a business cycle.

Government need do no such thing. If massive hoarding occurs it is because people wanted it. Who is the government to stipulate what the masses should and should not do? Your argument is 100% arbitrary!!! Don’t you see? Why doesn’t the government all make us wear green hats, not enough people are wearing green hats! Not enough people are spending omg!

You are not in a position to judge other people for their actions. What difference does it make if a man prefers a dollar in his bank to a carton of milk in his fridge. What satisfiy’s this man is up to him, not up to you.

Unbelievable folly. [:O]

Dude seriously, read Human Action. [:(]

Monsoor please critique this statement

Based on the marginal Theory of Value

  • A man with increased cash savings is more likely to invest.
  • A man with little cash savings is less likely to invest.

Whats wrong with the above statement if anything?

One other way to (possibly) get out of a deflationary spiral is to un-centralize the society. That is, remove, legal tender laws and allow private money to exist. Of course, it becomes much, much harder for the government to collect taxes. But lets put that aside for the moment. Would it even work otherwise? How would existing contracts written in USD be handled/adjudicated? My creditors are all over the country. In what currency would they be paid in? Also, over long period of time consolidation of currencies will begin according to gresham’s law and you will again end up with one currency. Back to square one.

Mansoor

A) A single (more vendible good) is good. (Even universally)

B) Hoarding is good. (even universally, if people should so desire)

I wish you would follow your spirally deflation to it’s logical end. Something that is quiet impossible of occurring. People won’t starve themselves in their home to prevent themselves from trading goods. At some point someone’s got to go buy something.

The icy wind blows. We look down that deep, dark crevasse. “Mansoor! Can you hear us?” We know you’ve fallen down into that economic pit of fallacies. We’ve thrown down the lifelines. Please grab hold of one before it’s too late!

On a more serious note, the quote above is a train wreck of fallacies. I will not waste your time refuting it. Have you not yet heard of Austrian business cycle theory? If so, why do you reject it?

Statements is true most of the time. But not in a deflationary environment after a bust. Fear wins over. Fear of the future. Specially when a common man is let down by very, very, very smart people on wall street who went to the best schools this country has to offer. You see, people get confused and then they hoard and stay close to shore. But they do not understand the consequences hoarding.

I think you’re making the idea of competing currencies a lot more complicated than they really are. Obviously you’d know what currency your creditors would be paid in because these terms would be discussed before any loans were made. Eventually a few currencies would remain that would come out on top- and they’d be the most stable and useful forms of money. That’s not back to square one- that’s a different scenario from today completely.

I reject it because it does not explain the great depression at all!

If the purchasing power is increased(Deflation) why would people not invest? Why do people magically no longer want to further increase their purchasing power against their neighbor? Why is it that they magically stop wanting to satisfy more desires?

Why are they scared of an increased amount of purchasing power(Defflation)?

Lets say they are scared of the future, but after saving up 100 million dollars they wouldn’t invest a penny?

If you agree to my first statemtens above(Where you agreed that a man with more savings is more likely to invest), you seem to be in conflict with yourself.

There are no consequences of hoarding, other then increased purchasing power WHICH IS A GOOD THING.

It will converge to one. One of the issuer of the last two currencies standing will be better at managing and then it will converge to one. We will then back where we are now.

yes it does. Did you listen to that video above?

Please re-review the movie theater example in the thread. That is why.

Why aren’t people investing right now. Why is there so much hoarding? Why is the unemployment rate so high? Higly skilled, ready, willing and able people just cannot find work. Why is there so much under-employment. And not just in the USA. But all over the world. Why can’t banks find credit worthy borrowers/businesses to lend to. Why aren’t businesses borrowing and expanding. Labor is plentiful and cheaper. Factory utilization has never been lower.

Sorry can you re-post it?

Because they have no savings.

They arn’t they have no money.

Because mal-investment and capital is heteregenous.

Because it takes time to rebuild necessary capital/industries/companies that are sustainable to rebuild themselves and pickup the old capital/labor.

Because many other countries, working with the IMF, have held the exact same policies as us and/or are leveraged on our currency.

Because they have already lent money to everyone, and in the United States they have lent money to people on several occasions. In fact in our country they recomend that you have 4 open lines of credit.

Read the link.

Because borrowing and expanding is what caused the mal-investment. Expansion needs to be directed by consumers so we can ensure that business who produce desirable products are the ones growing.

Things don’t happen over night. We just went through the bust a year ago, and a new bubble is being prompt up. As long as we prop the bubble the longer you will see these symptoms. It will take several years to recover. IT does not know good to stamp our foot and jump up and down in a tantrum because new business don’t spontaneously appear into existence offering new employment.

Mansoor, what do you think of this statement: “There is a distinction between deflation caused by a fiat credit expansion and deflation that results from free market forces”. What do you think of this article by Frank Shostak: Does Deflation Pose a Threat to the US Economy?

I assume you have not read America’s Great Depression or if you have, you reject it also?

Its not that busts are not healthy and needed to stop sending cash to bad projects. It is the “lull” the transition time from realization of a major bust and then the public sits on cash too long to the next investment. The workers who were making bread factories are out of work and that is not so bad if the investors re-direct excess output to other uses but they may not quickly enough. Those workers drop their consumption level due to much lower income now sending a signal that production should drop more. Which leads to more unemployment. If this occurs to a large enough scale (like the GD) it can spiral out of control and feed on itself. Perceived future demand for goods and services and expected revenue cash flows is what drives the motivation to invest in PPE and training people.

Look. When the economy is facing a deflationary abyss it is more important to do a project. Even if it is building pyramids for our dead presidents. Of course, we should try projects which will actually help us like space shuttles, re-do America’s infrastructure, modernize the electrical grid, etc. And doing projects is much, much better than keeping people on the dole long term. Projects will give people dignity, help them lead a disciplined life, help them use their talents etc.

Also, projects can be stopped, delayed or scaled down when the public is back in the mood to spend or invest as measured by inflation.

But you continue to forget that investors must first have a surplus of cash/savings before they can re-direct their investments to new projects.

When you say deflationary abyss it’s like saying the loch ness monster. It sounds like a fairy tale. We want the economy to increase it’s unit of exchange’s purchasing power over time, not stagnate nor retract.

SO we should compell(force people) to build large benign, economically wastful projects which squelch natural resources, raise the cost of goods and services overall, and which do not actually produce ANYTHING that the consumer would voluntarily consume on their own.

If this creates new wealth why don’t we have all the unemployed in our country start digging ditches. What new wealth will their product add to our economy, and how will they be paid?

Oh wait, they won’t be adding ANYTHING vluable to the economy, and they will be paid by taxation, IE the productive part of the economy will be paying them to build useless crap.

Projects are just as bad. They don’t produce anything of value, and to pay for it you must further destroy the productive sectors of the economy.

People don’t need dignity, discipline, and all that crap. They need food, water, milk, shelter. They need to consume produce, they need to produce goods that other people want.

You are economically lost. The economy does not exist to look pretty. It exists to serve the desires/needs of individuals. If you have to FORCE people to participate you are undermining the whole point of the eco0nomy, because they very act of forcing them to do something shows you that you are makign them do something they would prefer not to.

But they never are, and are always a huge waste to natural resources, waste to tax payers, and waste to consumers.

The only way a project can be productive is if it is left to the consumer’s scrutiny under the system of profit/loss.

With no improvement:

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Revenue $100 $95 $90 $85

Cost $100 $95 $90 $85

With improvement:

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Revenue $100 $97 $95 $90

Cost $100 $95 $90 $85

Net gain due to improvement: Year 1 = $0, Year 2 = $2, Year 3 = $5, Year 4 = $5

If better service required an investment (say hiring a coaching consultant) for $100.

Now compare this to a inflationary environment:

With no improvement:

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Revenue $100 $105 $110 $115

Cost $100 $105 $110 $115

With improvement:

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Revenue $100 $108 $116 $124

Cost $100 $105 $110 $115

Net gain due to improvement: Year 1 = $0, Year 2 = $3, Year 3 = $6, Year 4 = $9

Notice that my payback time for the deflationary environment will be a much longer. This give rise a very strong incentive to hoard and raises the hurdle to invest very significantly. All investments are risky. And the longer I have to wait to get paid back the more risky it is!

Dude government spending projects are a WORSE-TYPE of mal-investment as compared to over-production via a boom.

The boom fails because it produces thigns people don’t want.

Switching that roll to government and forcing people to participate in that activity does not solve the problem. It just redirects to a compulsory based monopoly which can compel it’s citizen’s to pay for it’s inefficiency’s and useless crap.