To see the answer, we have to examine the detailed bank-to- bank process of credit expansion under central banking. To make it simple, suppose we assume that the Fed buys a bond for $1,000 from Jones & Co., and Jones & Co. deposits the bond in Bank A, Citibank. The first step that occurs we have already seen (Figure 10.9) but will be shown again in Figure 11.1. Demand deposits, and therefore the money supply, increase by $1,000, held by Jones & Co., and Citibank’s reserves also go up by $1,000.
At this point, Citibank cannot simply increase demand deposits by another $4,000 and lend them out. For while it could do so and remain with a required minimum reserve/deposit ratio of 20 percent, it could not keep that vital status for long. Let us make the reasonable assumption that the $4,000 is loaned to R.H. Macy & Co., and that Macy’s will spend its new deposits on someone who is a client of another, competing bank. And if Citibank should be lucky enough to have Macy’s spend the $4,000 on another of its clients, then that client, or another one soon thereafter, will spend the money on a nonclient. Suppose that Macy’s spends $4,000 on furniture from the Smith Furniture Co. But the Smith Furniture Co. is the client of another bank, ChemBank, and it deposits Macy’s Citibank check into its Chem- Bank account. ChemBank then calls on Citibank to redeem its $4,000. But Citibank hasn’t got the $4,000, and this call for redemption will make Citibank technically bankrupt. Its reserves are only $1,000, and it therefore will not be able to pay the $4,000 demanded by the competing bank.
In short, when Citibank’s demand deposits were owed to Macy’s, its own client, everything was fine. But now, not from loss of confidence or from a sudden demand for cash, but in the course of regular, everyday trade, Macy’s demand deposits have been transferred to ChemBank, and ChemBank is asking for reserves at the Fed for redemption. But Citibank doesn’t have any reserves to spare and is therefore insolvent.
One bank, therefore, cannot blithely heap 5:1 on top of new reserves. But if it cannot expand 500 percent on top of its reserves, what can it do? It can and does expand much more mod- erately and cautiously. In fact, to keep within its reserve require- ments now and in the foreseeable future, it expands not by 500 percent but by 1 minus the minimum reserve requirement. In this case, it expands by 80 percent rather than by 500 percent. We will see in the figures below how each bank’s expanding by 80 percent in a central banking system causes all banks, in the aggregate, in a short period of time, to expand by the money multiplier of 5:1. Each bank’s expansion of 80 percent leads to a system or aggre- gate expansion of 500 percent.