"Emerging" China

is still one-third the size of the US economy.

and still hasn’t surpassed tiny Japan’s economy.

Most overrated nation ever. This talk of “emerging” economies makes me chuckle. They call India an emerging economy, where government spending forms 38% of the GDP itself, and which still has large and inefficient public sector enterprises forming a large part of its economy, even though they don’t generate any free cash flow, and run on more and more external financing. This BRICIS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Singapore) talk by Goldman Sachs is just to cheer up some internationalist sentiment for the sake of appeasing some government policy makers on their way to some international meetings. This flattery is done to get these nations on their side.

So anyway, China. In China, you don’t get loans. Try very hard, banks refuse. So instead, you save most of your income, instead of being able to spend it on yourself, and increase your standard of living. To buy even a house, you save, with little possibility of being given a loan on easy terms. But even what you save, you don’t get a good interest on it. Deposits pay very little interest.

Banks pay very little interest, because as mandated by the government, they are to throw away their money to large corporations on easy terms and low interest rates. Small and medium size enterprises get nothing. Large corporations can keep getting more and more financing, which they throw away more and more gladly. Chinese manufacturing plants on top of mountains have workers who carry coal down from the uphill roads to bring the coal to the generators. A sign near the factory will tell them not to bring more than a certain amount of coal. It’s because they are bringing in too much coal, which is far more than what they need to use, even though they paid for it with their easy financing. Generating electricity and getting other conveniences is also easy, because the government subsidises it for these large corporations. So they waste that too. With huge operating costs, they just keep going for more and more financing, while retaining all they earn. They can do that, because Chinese government owns these companies, and they can allow them to not declare dividends, since the government people are on the board of directors and top management, and already get their payoffs.

I thought “economy” meant minimizing use of anything, and putting them only in their most productive possible uses. This is not economy, it is one huge diseconomy. And it’s a wastage of capital, fuel, labour, and earnings, when they could have gone for other purposes, where they would create more range of goods and services and with more people able to afford them, while more new jobs and newer range of jobs open up with more lucrative payoffs to more number of people.

Back in the days when Japanese used to run cotton mills in China, they ran it better than their Chinese competitors, and paid their Chinese workers much more. That’s because Japanese knew how to manage and economise. Chinese know only how to contact bureaucrats who can give them more and more assistance.

Many Chinese are still poor, and the Chinese know it. But to reaffirm their national glory and sense of progress, they use ostentatious nationalist display of arms and military power, by showing all the missiles and tanks they have spent money on, so that the poor of China are reminded that they still live in a glorious country.

The living conditions in China are increasing and it’s foolish to say that it’s not an emerging economy when I can’t pick up anything around my house that isn’t made in China, trust me China could be ALOT better without a state, but it is still an emerging an prospering economy… Assuming current trends follow I doubt this will continue however, as current industries start using the government to become more corpratist.

This is all that really needs to be said IMO.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens if/when the USD really starts to inflate. So far the Chinese have seemed intent on maintaining their currency peg but I wonder if they’re dumb enough to chase the dollar all the way to oblivion just to coddle their export market. Sooner or later you think they’d figure out that they could make an assload of money and fill up their empty, GDP fudging cities by letting the currency float and producing for their domestic market but who knows. If the knuckleheads currently manning the levers of global power are anything to go by stupid is the name of the game at the moment.

I don’t get it. Are you saying that China’s economy will be “emerging” after is surpasses USA GDP? Wouldn’t that defeat the entire purpose of being emergent?

Sounds like the United States.

Japan modernized long before China did, so it’s not surprising. There’s nothing magical about Japanese blood in your veins.

If you replaced “Chinese” with American, it would make even more sense.

I take it you’ve never been to China.

Me?

No, the original poster

Ah, gotcha

What’s it like there? Are there dragons and anime heroes?

lol, everyone knows that’s Japan…

And you cant walk two feet without seeing a TV factory[;)]

Shanghai is great, especially the food. I’ve been to China (last year) and live in Japan (8 years). I don’t know if I can offer any useful information, but anything anyone’d like know, please ask.

China’s economy should fall into a bust just as any economy would that has been distorted by central banking. The media seems to be enthralled by China’s apparent success, but it must be a mirage. It’s built on a fiat credit expansion, isn’t it? Yes, apparently China’s saving rate is high, which would imply that long term projects or more round about production, and hence higher living standards, could be supported. However, if this were true in China’s case, the structure of production would have to be coordinated by prices determined from free market exchange. Without such pricing signals (it’s Communist state), I would conclude that China’s structure of production must be terribly distorted, or malinvested. This will therefore lead to the bust. I’m I off base here?

Despite the substantial stimulus package, China has very lax labor laws and is not keen in trying to protect the majority of its factories. As a result, when the 2008 recession hit there was massive spike in unemployment and bankruptcies. But, the Chinese government allowed these to go through. Wages went down accordingly, and generally the market was allowed to clear (except for continued inflationary distortion caused by the Chinese central bank). Nevertheless, in regards to the distortion of capital markets, I think the Chinese are better off than the Western world simply because they allow their labor markets to be elastic.

So what you’ll get are very large shocks, but for a small period of time (similar to the 1920-21 recession in the United States).

We’ll, look at what the U.S. did during the next major shock in 1929. They went full tilt interventionist. Won’t the political pressure on the Chinese communists force them to intervene? Wouldn’t a major bust lead to a disruption in China’s ability to buy U.S. debt? Isn’t the pattern, according to Mises, for more and more intervention?

The only way in which China`s production is malinvested is in the fact that it is making computers for Americans rather than washing machines (a more basic good) for the Chinese. Yes this is going to cause some pain, but retooling factories (China) is far easier than building new ones (US). Plus, if you are hampered by regulations (US) you might as well not bother building them because you are not going to be competitive once you do.

When the US central bank policy (borrowing) fails American currency is going to the dogs, its middle class erased and the place before a reckoning. When the Chinese central bank policy (the peg) fails the Chinese currency is going to actually rise and the country will see the emergence of a consuming middle class.

China`s economy is not built on fiat expansion. It is built on exports, financed by fiat expansion in the US, which is in turn financed by the savings of the Chinese. So the US gets all the gain and China gets all the pain. When this idiotic system fails this middle man who only eats is going to be cut out.

Maybe after that we are going to see boom-bust cycles in China also (depending on what their central bank starts doing then), but right now China is not experiencing a boom in business cycle terms (it is only financing the boom and now the bailouts and stimuluses in the US and is therefore suffering inflation as if it were in a domestic boom) so it has no reason to enter a bust. With all the money shipped out the interest rate in China is probably higher than it should be compared to their savings, not lower.

The beneficiary of those things around your house is YOU, not the Chinese.

Remember what economy and economics is all about. It’s about the best allocation of scarce resources. And when you manage to get a cheaper items from China, better items from China, and more items from China, you have to managed to economise and increase your satisfaction.

Chinese can’t consume, use, or eat what they export. They only get back a piece of paper which has only the value of being a commonly accepted medium of exchange. And these pieces of papers, they can do very little with, except put in a bank. The bank does not put their money in long-term investment, which at some point would indirectly benefit these people. Instead, it goes into continuously funding inefficient industries to meet their high current uses. The opportunity cost of this is more or less giving up a quality of life by a huge margin.

Remember when Russian tsars once said, “Let us starve so we can export.”

This is only a part of economics in as much as economic means are used to pursue this goal. When political means are used instead it is a part of criminology.