Greek Crisis Update

Miscellaneous Current Events
1

Despite the silence that fell over the whole Greek saga (in Italy this connivence between big media outlets and governments regarding particularly touchy topics it’s called bavaglio mediatico, media gag) the situation is far from solved. Last official figures are far worse than expected: Greek public debt stands at 113% of the GDP.

On Thursday PM Papandreou publicly asked both the IMF and the EU to “provide us with the promised aid packages”. The euro took a beating from both the US dollar and the UK pound: bad for me, as I had to place both pounds and dollars denominated orders on Friday…

Despite the aforementioned media gag popular unrest is slowly but worringly mounting: most categories feel they may the first to see benefits slashed so they are preparing for all out confrontations. There are fears this unrest (especially strikes) may undermine the tourism sector, the second GDP component behind government spending, just as the season is starting. Shrewd Turkish tour operators are already aggressively marketing: “the same sea and sun minus the strikes!”.

But the best part is yet to come. On Friday that economic genius that is the Italian Minister of Finance, Giulio Tremonti, publicly invited Germany to “do her part and be brave” while not pledging a single cent on his part. While PC obsessed German media declined any comment, people in the street are making pretty obvious jokes about “the cowardly lion”.

Now, the German government is a very tight spot. In two weeks the most populous and richest lander, Nordrhein-Westfalen, will hold her local elections. If kanzellerin Merkel’s coalition loses there it’s over for her: Gerhard Schroeder’s left wing coalition fell in 2005 precisely because they lost the Nordrhein-Westfalen election. Popular opinion is strongly against bailing out Greece, Spain, Portugal or any other country. As I said before Germans are on the average well informed about politics and are much wont at taking their greivances to the ballot. It has been said that the only thing that kept the once popular Merkel in place during the last year is the lack of a charismatic left wing leader. She’s a skilled politician (though not as skilled and charismatic as the Iron lady) but pressure on her could become unbearable. Because while German taxpayers are saying “let them sort out their own problems, we’ve given enough already!”, all other European countries are strongly pressuring Germany to become the piggy bank of all the failed States in Europe. Italy and France, already nicknamed “the cowardly lions of Europe” are very vocal in their requests.

Kanzellerin Merkel is trying to buy time at the moment. She has said multiple times that Germany will only intervene if the euro is “seriously threatened”. Her CSU (Bavarian Christian-Democrats) allies bought some much needed time by publicly stating that it would be better for “everyone” if Greece seriously considered dropping the euro. This was a groundbreaking statement, though it reflects very well popular opinion in the richest areas of Europe where the euro is still seen as an half-baked, poorly coordinated effort to shoehorn completely different economic realities in a single currency.

The fact that France and Italy, so vocal in their requests, are doing absolutely nothing on their part while pocketing billions in EU aids and subsidies (French agriculture is by far the single main recipient of EU funds) is infuriating the German public. Italy and her “careless” economical politics is also drawing much fire while her government is in danger of falling following internal feuds.

Conclusions. It’s immensely entertaining seeing the eurocrats bickering so furiously among themselves. But it’s even more entertaining to see how the EU itself is absolutely powerless at doing anything. All these years we feared it may have become a new USSR while in reality it was just a scam to hand out bribes to keep people in line and coming up with migranious pieces of legislation.

As far as Greece is concerned I believe that they will get bailout money, probably through the IMF not to infuriate the touchy German voters, and will be able to soldier on three-four more years but in the end will drop the euro. These three-four years will be needed to come up with a mutual agreement to allow Greece to leave the euro as painlessly as possible. Why am I saying that? Aids packages will come with strings attached. Greece will have to reduce government spending drastically and perhaps step up taxation, which is quite high already. This will infuriate people in the streets and will probably drive more capitals out the country.

This plan is quite sensible, though there are drawbacks. The second half of 2010 will see “stimulus” effects drying up all over the world. Europe hasn’t seen any recovery and will probably take the worst of it. If money’s tight Grrece could see her aid package reduced drastically. There are also other problems. Portugal is in a very similar situation to Greece and let’s not forget the Sick Man of Europe: Spain.

But that’s another story for another day.

2

This is remarkably detailed, well written and informational. I enjoyed reading it.

3

“But that’s another story for another day.”

Keep on writing, great stuff.

4

Good stuff, Kakugo. There’s one thing, though, that I beg to disagree with:

As far as Greece is concerned I believe that they will get bailout money, probably through the IMF not to infuriate the touchy German voters

German voters are currently being educated on the “benefits” of bailing out Greece. One budgetary expert of Merkel’s CDU recently stated in an interview with German business paper Handelsblatt that loans to Greece would be “mutually beneficial”. His logic: due to Greece’s high risk of default, interest on loans is much higher relative to loans made to Germany. So, if “we” just borrow some money to lend it out to Greece, “we” will receive the difference of 4-5% interest without doing anything at all! Never mind the possibility of losing our money in a default - that’s never gonna happen, right? Democracies don’t go bankrupt.

As much as I hate to see the value of my money go down the drain, it’s somewhat satisfying to witness the attempt to conquer Europe by stealth fail. As it turns out, supranational social democracy does not work any better than its national brother. Time to move on.

5

Great stuff. Tons of views and information the MSM won’t touch with a ten-foot barge pole. Thanks for the update!

6

Kakugo,

I’m hearing rumors that Germany might get out of the Euro currency. How much of that is possible to happen this year or the next?

7

Trying to “educate” people is one thing, convincing them is another, especially in this moment.

Everybody (not just in Germany) is waiting for official data on German public debt for 2009. Predictions say it should be about 77% of the GDP, up considerably from 68% in 2008 (OECD figures). There’s an ongoing controversy in Germany at the moment which sadly I have problems following due to my poor grasp of the language related to the fact that the government may have used “accounting tricks” to hide billions of euro in public debt in 2007 and 2008. No need to tell that if that should be case public debt would be considerably higher than the projected 2009 figure and will be the cause for more troubles.

Germany out the euro you say? It will happen if and when keeping the currency from taking a beating will become too expensive.

Personally I believe the next five years will see LOTS of changes in Europe and happening at a pace we have never seen before. There are simply too many problems which were swept under the rug, as to say, and that now are popping up all together.

8

snerk Hahahaha! I’m sorry, I know I shouldn’t laugh, but that burn by the Turks is just too good.

In all seriousness, thanks for writing this up, my friend. It’s good to follow the failing supra-national state going on over there. I really do hope the Germans don’t cave and continue giving payouts to the failing European states.

9

As always, great post.

I might only add that in an interview for an Italian paper two weeks ago, none other than His Highness George Soros I, Grand Duke of Poland, King Hungary and Lord Protector the Eastern Estates, as well as pretender to the throne of the principality of Albania, stated it clearly: Germany will get out of Euroland before the decade is out. So, by 2025 Europe will be the warfield of Turkey and Russia both emerging powers and the only solvent countries around here. History sure is ironic.

10

"Kakugo,

I’m hearing rumors that Germany might get out of the Euro currency. How much of that is possible to happen this year or the next?"

No way, people here want the Euro, they would never leave it; in fact: not wanting to bail out Greece or questioning the Euro is considered to be something like blatant racism or neo-nazism around here (at least in the media and politics). Oh no, you oppose “European Unity”, you must be one of those speculators!

11

George Soros is surely wont to give out questionable statements such as this. Yet he is now so rich and powerful he can say pretty much whatever he wants, even the truth.

But I agree with him both the EU and the euro won’t see the end of the decade in the present form. Too many unsettled issues popping up one after another. I don’t remeber if it was Marc Faber or Jim Rogers who said that Europe will be the one place on earth that will take the worst beating from the present economic crisis. He was spot on. Even Milton Friedman (who I don’t like) warned multiple times about the foolishness of the euro.

The one issue that bothers me the most is popular unrest. While Europeans don’t move a muscle when stripped of the most basic civil liberties they will be very ready to take to the streets when they’ll see their privileges threatened. It’s bound to happen: to be competitive once again we need to drastically cut taxation and roll back legislation. China and India will very soon catch up in the high tech game European companies have played for the past few decades and will be able to offer the same goods at much inferior prices: when I tell this people usually laugh but then I remember how they used to laugh at Japanese cars and radios. Then they turn the question to “slave labor”, which is quickly becoming the last refuge of the scoundrel. But who are the slaves: Chinese factory workers or us toiling over half a year just pay taxes?

12

Its official, the Greek finance minister went on air saying that the country has enough money to last…22 whole days! He is bitching to get some British banks to extort money from the Germans of course, but add a zero and it should be pretty close to the mark.

13

They are just being melodramatic, that’s all. Everybody knows Greece will be bailed out this time, even if this means sacrificing Angela Merkel (though given the sad state of the left wing opposition in Germany this may not happen) and out collective wallet.

Greece knows very well that allowing a member State to default means seeing the euro plummet in a matter of days: this cannot happen. Greece also knows they are the first in the breadline so they’ll get the best pick. The problem is the breadline is getting longer: Portugal is next in line and other countries are already considering having a go, namely Spain and Ireland. Simply put Europe doesn’t have the strength to bail out all these States and also keep present levels of spending. Resorting to inflation is a very risky move since consumers’ prices are racing all over the Continent, pushed by the massive 2008 “quantitative easing” and skyrocketing fuel prices. The media are playing the game by skipping over the inflationary spiral and politicians are resorting to their full arsenal of lies but are looking more and more like Comical Ali, the Iraqi minister who kept saying “all’s fine, we are winning the war!” with a straight face while US tanks were rolling into Baghdad.

Painful sacrifices will be needed. Mainstream economists are already talking openly about “the death of the euro” and “the spiral of death”. It’s a bit drastic in my opinion, but it’s obvious that we cannot go on much longer like this. Yet there are no long term fixes in sight: a negotiated end to the euro in the present form could provide some short term relief but it’s obvious the EU has been caught with her pants down. There are no contingency plans to be put in place. There are only short term measures to buy time while the supposed finest economical minds in Europe get to work.

How good they are can be gauged by how many of them predicted the present situation.

14

Kakugo, I consider the above posts among the best and most informative I have ever seen on this site. I’m actually moving to Paris in a few months and, consequently, have taken a stronger interest in European affairs. I’m curious of what you think the effect will be once Iceland joins the EU. I also read an article on the Financial Times website; the author, perhaps tongue-in-cheek, mentioned the possibility of Russia - or even China (!) - bailing out Greece. I am not sure what to think of that proposal. Russia still has its own internal problems to deal with, let alone the EU’s. But perhaps China could play a role, albeit indirectly through the IMF. The country has voiced its desire for more clout on international organizations, and a desperate Europe might be more conciliatory. At any rate, what are your thoughts on Russia and China in this regard?

I look forward to your response!

15

“But I agree with him both the EU and the euro won’t see the end of the decade in the present form. Too many unsettled issues popping up one after another. I don’t remeber if it was Marc Faber or Jim Rogers who said that Europe will be the one place on earth that will take the worst beating from the present economic crisis. He was spot on. Even Milton Friedman (who I don’t like) warned multiple times about the foolishness of the euro.”

=> you think the Euro is a bad idea. Really? 1) EU area forms a group of countries sharing 80% of the commercial business inside the EU community, so economically speaking to have a common currency under such conditions is an efficient way to optimize transactional costs and to support free market and free movement of capitals, goods, and services. Euro supported the construction of a strong and free “domestic” european market, which has been proven to be one of the bigger in the world in term of supply, demand, investments, etc. even if they are now 27 countries to manage together.

=> Till now the USA suffered much more than the EU from the crisis, in terms of increasing debts, rising unemployement, dropping activity, bankrupts, etc. Obsviously, USA or EU are nothing to compare with the heat fell by developing countries with bad governance, high public deficits and high dependance to industrial production for exportation (ex: China, etc.). Talking about the EU, you’re right if you consider just England and the mediterranean countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal) and ex-soviet countries (Poland, Balt Countries, czeck, romania, etc.) : these two bands regrouping several countries that have been freed from dictatorship in the 1970-80s (mediterranean countries) and in the 1990s (Eastern europe countries). Their economy (and society) are still recovering from this dark period, among other things thanks to EU loans and subsidies to build up a solid infrastructure (ports, roads, banking sector, etc) and thanks to a lot of measures to free their markets and productions and to reduce the overweighing bureaucracy they inherited from the commies states (all custom fees have been canceled, reduction of protectionims, stronger banking sector, the number of public servants dropped, etc). These countries even had the faster GDP growth (till 2 digits for some) in all the EU since their could free the potential capacities of their markets… well, till the present crisis… But for the remainig countries of the EU, the "oldies western european countries that form the core of Europe Union (France, Germany, Belgiup, Luxemburgo, etc) they are still in good shape even if also suffuring any direct nor indirect damanges of the crisis, as any other country but with lower social impacts.

“The one issue that bothers me the most is popular unrest. While Europeans don’t move a muscle when stripped of the most basic civil liberties they will be very ready to take to the streets when they’ll see their privileges threatened.”

=> please detail what are the civil liberties Europeans citizen have lost because of the EU??? Citizens in Europe are more free than in the US, more ever since US gov adopted post 2001 law packages… And if you refer to “days of strike per capita” of French of Spanish, remenber that productivity is higher here than in the US (Fr > US in productivity dude, so they can go to strike and still produce the same wealth per capita, and moreover they enjoy in average 2 more weeks of legal holidays per year than the average US worker ! :slight_smile: )

“China and India will very soon catch up in the high tech game European companies have played for the past few decades and will be able to offer the same goods at much inferior prices: when I tell this people usually laugh but then I remember how they used to laugh at Japanese cars and radios”.

=> well, i thought the same was happening in the US, even if there you have a very low and unequalitarian tax system, am i right? Please detail what’s the relation you make between the EU social (or tax) system and the rise of high tech companies in South East Asia then as this relation also seems valid replacing “the EU” by “the USA”??? Just for fun (but it’s true information) in the last 5 years a lot of european born companies re-located their production in the EU, after suffuring several big troubbles of illegal copying of their productions and of “leakages” of their technology expertise… They reckonned the total cost generated by these illegal piracy and considered that it would be cheaper to produce again in EU than in China or else :slight_smile:

“Then they turn the question to “slave labor”, which is quickly becoming the last refuge of the scoundrel. But who are the slaves: Chinese factory workers or us toiling over half a year just pay taxes?”.

This is just provocation from yours i think: “slave labor” applies and only applies of work under slavery conditions, like to work 10h a day with no weekend living at 10 per room and with no health insurance and physical brimade: welcome to China… You don’t like to pay any tax don’t you? I assume however that you have a mobile phone in the US, and that maybe you also buy extra additional services sometimes (paying services). Well, to pay tax is the same concept: 1) first off all, people doesn’t like to pay taxes and “tax evasion” is an national sport in EU, as in any other country. However, people here in its majority accept to pay tax (and support this system) because we pay taxes but we have a lot of advantages attached as “paying services” provided to you : you get free (and high quality) education for children till 14 yo, and sometimes till 18, you get very good price university degree and then allow all good brains even if born in a poor familly to get their potential expended and used in the economy, you got free or almost emergency health services, full or almost reimbursement of your medications fees (after controled by your registered doctor), of course you also got the triptic justice/military/police services for free, but consider you also benefit from subsidised public transportations (european cities are dense and with small streets, forget about finding a place where to park your car, it’s a nightmare), and a lot of free and make-your-life-easy stuff int he same packages. Conclusion: your lifespan (expenctancy at birth) higher than in the US! :slight_smile: well, even if it’s not the only cause, it has its importance.

16

I recall Russia lent Iceland 4 billion when the crisis made landfall. But that was before the crisis moved to Russia, I don’t think they would be in position to do so again now.

17

OK I got it all wrong. Sorry to have doubted the EU and the euro and sorry to have wasted your time.

Moderators please delete this post and delete my account since I am obviously wasting everybody’s time. I am serious.

Kobalt, one thing. When you talk about “don’t like to pay any taxes” you sound like a snobbish university student. Evidently you have no idea what it means to work more than six months a year to have only broken roads and long lines at the hospital. You have no idea what it means having to to pay an heatlh insurance on top of healthcare taxes to be sure not to waste too much time when needing something as simple as a blood exam.

So long people.

18

“Moderators please delete this post and delete my account since I am obviously wasting everybody’s time. I am serious.”

You must be joking.

If you benefit just one person, you have contributed to the sacred cause of freedom.

Count how many posts have expressed appreciation. Please think again.

19

You damn well better be joking! So many people including me love your posts. You don’t know how many times I’ve read what you’ve said and applied to when talking to other people on the internt outside of this forum and to other people I make contact with outside of the computer arena. And it’s not that I take from you as gospel faith, but it fits so darn well with current events in news articles and such, that I read. This was only one poster Kakugo. No need to engage the poster if you don’t want to. I’m sure others here in this forum would love to pick up on the debate. I don’t find your posts Kakugo as intended to be a debate. They are more informative posts with a different intention. And that’s what I love about the posts you make here. I really enjoy going into these threads in which you comment to gather information instead of having to get bogged down into deconstructive arguments.

Do what you will, but don’t think a lot of people will not miss your posts. Many will. Well, I know I will and I’ve read many posters here that say often to you that your posts are something they look forward to and enjoy a lot.

20

Kakugo, as previous speakers have already mentioned, your posts are being appreciated and looked forward to here by a great number of users. It would be a heavy loss for these boards if you decided not to frequent them anymore!

Please rethink your decision.