I apologize to Ron Paul supporters and I take back what I’ve said here about his fundamentalism.
What remains, though, 1) is that if he wins, 2) libertarianism in the will take a heavy hit and 3) this is not the bets way for him to use his finite resources (political credibility).
I apologize to Ron Paul supporters and I take back what I’ve said here about his fundamentalism.
What remains, though, 1) is that if he wins, 2) libertarianism in the will take a heavy hit and 3) this is not the bets way for him to use his finite resources (political credibility).
1 – can he win?
When Thatcher (I take her instead of Regan as he didn’t really do anything, unlike Thatcher who made a very few advancements) spoke of denationalizing coal pits, or stop fixing coal prices etc. the whole of England was paralyzed for a hundred+ days riot (one such riot had brought down the previous Heath government). Thatcher was able to pull that off only because she rode on the wave of “Empire Strikes back” on the Falkalnds. Will RP have such an option?
But if he indeed will invite massive riots (see below), that form the point of view of the state, would it be so bad to have him in? The grand Prophets of the State, Krugman holds that Volcker tok a monetarist course in the ’80 only to discredit monetarism forever (success!). So, it would not be the first time that the state makes ample concession in massively important fields only to manipulate its opponents. So, if I was some wily republican, I’d actually back Ron Paul and see him fail abysmally. At least, I would do that under some circumstances.
So, if Obama’s popularity sinks lower, if unemployment rages on, if the afghani kick even more American ass, there just could be a large minority of republican that will be attracted to RP as their “last hope”. So, you either try to stifle that, only to have libertarians criticize your every movement in the future, or actually get him into power (do not oppose him) and see him fail. So, if Ron Paul manages a good nomination campaign, I say he has a good chance of wining.
Don’t forget, a day before the Russian revolution, Bolsheviks where laughed at in . Things can change very quickly and one must bee prepared for that. “It will never happen” just wont do.
2 – will he destroy libertarianism?
Suppose he resigns after being elected (I’m assuming he won’t resign earlier). People ‘boo’ him for life. I myself would think ‘This guy was so much ‘do this, and do that, and you got this wrong’, and he now walks away? Who’s he kidding with?” its easy to se that much, much, fewer people would keep reding LRC or LvMi, and libertarianism would plunge back to the level of public appreciation it had in the ’50.
Suppose he accept but limits himself to veto every bill he gets. People will say, just as much, “well do you have a better idea? Health Care is a mess, what will you do about it? Medicare will be unfundable in 10 years, hat will you do about it?” If RP does nothing, he’s discredited, and us long with him.
Suppose some of his measures are put to practice. He deregulates the medical profession. The medics, having spend millions of dollars in education, bribery and opportunity costs of years gone, would never accept cheaper competition now. They’ll sit outside hospitals until the bill dies. Who shall cure non-mortal cases?
Yes, he could try to explain the situation, but “while the president talks, my heart is failing! Get that law out of the way!”. One seriously overestimate the average voter in expecting them to chose calm reason in such a scenario (half the people here would back down, I’m afraid). Its easy to see that people’s riot could begin in some cities. I witnessed this in my own university; a protracted professors sit-out caused a student riot directed to the state and backing the professor’s claim for higher pay. “Just get school to begin, we don’t give a shit!” And it was an economics faculty, mind you. Its ugly.
Now, he either holds on, and congress puts up with this no more (and libertarians are discredited as spineless hypocrites), or he gives in (inactivity as above, for the rest of his term) or he uses force. I don’t even want to think about that last option, even if it would be easy to bribe some police chief to have some violence on medics and blame the president. It’s a very, very difficult trap to get out form and we’re walking right in.
I see no way in which RP could walkout in 2016 with more than handful of people still reading LvMI articles.
3- he could be ‘used’ much, much better
See my local politics post above.