Hoppe and Afghanistan

Hoppe has the theory that the most internally liberal states are paradoxical the most imperialist powers. I was looking at Afghanistan and the US vs. Soviet invasions.

In 9 years the Soviet Union killed 75,000-90,000 Afghan Mujahedeen and 600,000-2,000,000 civilians. In 10 years the US has only killed 36,790-40,966 Afghan fighters and 14,000-34,000 civilians.

Shouldn’t the US’s much stronger economy and thus military have allowed it to cause much more damage in Afghanistan? Perhaps “natives killed” is the wrong metric to determine how imperialist a country is. Any thoughts?

Current american forces are much better in a military sense than soviet forces from 25 years ago, and the most bloody wars tend to be the ones where opposite forces are more balanced, see WW1 and WW2.

Actually your example supports Hoppe’s vision, since the less restricted american economy allows a more efficient army that can sustain imperalistic interverions and operations for much longer for not struggling and facing as many casualities as an army of a fully socialist country.

You must broaden your sights. No doubt Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was more lethal than American occupation of Afghanistan. However why take such a limited sample and look at just one country? Since they are easily avaliable there is no reason not to compare longer records, for example the whole Cold War period from 1945 through 1991. In which case it is easily apparent the US has a longer list of interventions and a higher bodycount (just from Vietnam and Korea).

One of the reasons is the US are fighting (and being beaten by) a much smaller and less well equipped insurgent force. The Soviets were fighting a loose coalition of Pashtun tribesmen, Tajik warlords and foreign volunteers (mostly from Saudi Arabia), armed and equipped by Pakistan which acted as a proxy for the US, Saudi Arabia and, possibly, China. Much has been written about the Stinger MANPADS but it was only the tip of the iceberg. The mujaheedin were constantly supplied with light weapons, mortars, anti tank weapons, explosives and ammunition. Wounded mujaheedin and Afghani (foreign fighters) were treated in Pakistan using funds from Saudi “charities”. Pakistan also provided sanctuary to the mujaheedin crossing the border: Soviet helicopters and aircraft which violated the Pakistani borders in pursuit were immediately shot down by F16’s kept in a 24 hours CAP, no questions asked.

By contrast the modern Afghan resistance is ethnically and culturally much more homogenous (being mostly made up of Pashtun/Pathan) and has far fewer resources. Weapons are a mixture of old models (with the ancient British Lee-Enfield being very prominent and much appreciated for its ability to defeat NATO standard body armor at long distances) and explosives are home made, mostly with nitrate-based fertilizers obtained in neighboring countries. These fertilizers are one of the great misteries of the Afghan war: as one US military officers said “We have no idea how they move literally tons of the stuff across the country without anybody noticing”. This in spite of employing aerial surveillance vehicles and CIA operatives on the ground in unprecedented numbers. One of the most disturbing recent development of the war is the apparition of ghazi or “warriors of the faith”. While the usual insurgent tactics involve sniping, suicide squads to assassinate foreign military personnel or government figures, roadside bombs etc, ghazi operate differently. They always operate in large numbers (sometimes over 500 men) and they are used to try overrun insolated foreign military outposts. They are somewhat comparable to the dervishes the British met in the Sudan in the fact that, eschewing long range fire, they try to close in fast as they can. Though it may seem suicidal in face of the immense firepower even an infantry platoon has available, these tactics deny the use of air power to provide support. Drones and jet “fast movers” are useless to provide support in close fighting as is the fearsome AC130 Spectre. The risk of friendly fire casualties is too high. I say “disturbing” because, again, in face of drones and operatives on the ground the guerrilla fighters seem to be able to move around larger forces without anybody noticing and with access to limited resources.

Another of the reasons the Soviets were able to do even more damage is the fact they employed completely different tactics from NATO. NATO uses far fewer troops and employs little or no heavy armor (the first tank unit arrived last year: like the ghazi it indicates the conflict is escalating at a very fast pace). The Red Army was trained and geared to operate in very large, unwieldy units which left a path of complete destruction in their wake. Soviets were also notoriously short on “smart” munitions: to do the work of a couple F18’s armed with GPS and laser guided bombs they had to call in air strike after air strike of Sukhoi fighter-bombers armed with iron bombs. Finally let’s not forget the training: while NATO is deploying the best troops in the area, the Soviets usually deployed second-line units made up of conscripts. As Louis XIV noted back in his days after witnessing the effects of limited conscription firsthand “Peoples’ wars tend to be much bloodier than kings’ wars”.

From: Afghantsy: The Russians in Afghanistan 1979-1989

Very good analysis Kakugo.

What do you see as the future of the Afghan war, especially in light of the recent wave of anti-American protests there? Is this the beginning of a popular revolt against occupation, which will ironically oust the U.S. in the same way as Assad is going to be ousted? It’s a funny situation. The U.S. and Co. is no doubt covertly financing and arming the opposition in Syria and Iran right now, as it did in Egypt and Libya…perhaps Iran and Co. (China, Russia) will do the same for the opposition in Afghanistan and/or Iraq? New proxy war?

In reality the Russians are propping up the American war in Afghanistan, were upset when America suggested it would withraw in 2014, and were the only significant backer of the Northern Alliance before 2001. The idea the Russians would supply the Taleban is bizzare.

There were only about 45,000 estimated taliban in 2001. Its mathematically impossible to equal those totals if the united states only engages combatants. And the operating forces have largely recognized the difference between regular afghans and taliban. The soviets were fighting regular afghans like gulbuddin hekmatyar. Furthermore, ideologically soviets were more open to things like punishment of civilian populations.

the correct metric for imperialism is the counterpart weasel-word, “influence.” how much influence does a country’s government have?

In reality the Russians are propping up the American war in Afghanistan, were upset when America suggested it would withraw in 2014, and were the only significant backer of the Northern Alliance before 2001. The idea the Russians would supply the Taleban is bizzare.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Depending on the actions of the U.S. (especially viz. Iran), the Russian interest in harming the U.S. in the ME by assisting the Taliban might exceed their interest in opposing the Taliban for other reasons (e.g. suppressing Islamist movements in Russia itself). The same with China. It’s participated to some extent with the WOT, for various reasons, but depending on actions by the U.S., China might be willing to risk the spread of Islamist movements in order to harm the U.S.

The US has made two fatal mistakes in Afghanistan. First, they had no idea of the situation on the ground. The fact they picked a Tajik warlord from the Northern Alliance as their chief puppet means they understood very little even about the ethnical make-up of the country. Second, they have always lacked long term plans for Afghanistan. For example at the moment nobody knows what will happen after 2014. Over the course of the years we have been told we were in Afghanistan for the pipelines, for the mineral resources, to build military bases to “encircle” China etc. All these may have been valid points at some time but they surely weren’t part of a long term plan because there has never been a long term plan. Just like we were in Iraq “for the oil” and now PetroChina and Rosfnet are more deeply entrenched in Iraq than they have ever been while Saddam was in charge.

Right now the only plan has become to somehow proclaim victory and get out of there. The costs of maintaining a single soldier there are simply staggering, both politically and economically. And God only knows how much money has been literally flushed down the drain trying to “build a nation”. Again this withdrawal is part of ever changing medium-term plans in Washington: right now the proponents of “limited intervention” are on a meteoric rise after their success in ousting Khadafi in Lybia while the “nation builders” are in full retreat due to their dismal failure in Iraq. With both tight money and the need to keep large garrisons in such places as Germany and Korea “nation building” is becoming less and less fashionable.

Syria is the proving ground for the “limited intervention” people. It’s a much tougher nut to crack than Lybia. While President Assad is a tyrant, he is far more moderate than Khadafi, his father or Mubarak ever were. While not exactly beloved by most of his people he’s seen as a much better alternative than a Saudi-backed religious extremist or a US-installed military strongman. There are disturbing reports the “Syrian resistance” is actually made up of foreign mercenaries and CIA hirelings with the British military providing C3I. While it was easy to find disaffected people in Lybia (after all Khadafi favored his own clan and allied tribes at everybody else’s expenses) apparently President Assad is a better equilibrist and managed to find a way to balance his power. Much more critically Assad has pampered his army while Khadafi allowed it to become rife with dissent. The Syrian military isn’t defecting in droves as we were led to believe. I also find myself wondering at the need of all the propaganda and truth-building about Syria… after all there is no peace movement to speak of anymore and nobody asked my consent when it was time send troops to Lebanon, Iraq, Somalia etc.

Sure, but it is not going to actually happen. As surprising as this may sound the world does not revolve around the US. Russia has other, more long-term, concerns that are always going to weight higher.

So your “regular Afghan” is a militant Islamist ideologue? Hekmatyar is in fact exactly like the Taleban only rather than an irreparable hillbilly he is university-educated (which actually makes him less of a regular Afghan).

Also you do know Gulbuddin is active in the Afghan resistance this time as well? So what now, he stopped being a “regular Afghan”?

by regular afghan I mean he is a product of afghanistan and representative of its people in his social role. I do not suggest that a warlord is the same as a farmer. The taliban are refugees from pakistani madrasas. They are not representative of afghanistan or its people.

I see why you would lump the two together but there are plenty of people like hekmatyar in afgh that the us military are not at war with and who go about their business largely unmolested. That same can not be said of afghan warlords (like hekmatyar) during the soviet occuppation.

like newt gingrich, he is in it for the money. He isnt going to “win” any wars, he is acting to strengthen his own position and add to his wealth. Notice the us is largely ignoring him.

You’re just adding more nonsense.

A characterization that would have been valid circa 1996. Not in 2012 however.

Actually the Afghan Taleban of today are extemely representative of Afghan Pashtuns. Or better who the Americans deem the Taleban.

Nonsense. There were warlords who worked for the Soviets as well, Rashid Dostum rings a bell? Also the Soviets made far more of an effort to talk with the resistance and were able to establish meaningful truces with parts of it, particularly the element led by Shad Massoud.

I’m noticing that you keep contradicting yourself. You actually took as an example of a “regular Afghan” who the Americans allegedly were not at war with, but the Soviets were, a highly ideological militant, who is explicitly at war with the Americans just as he was with the Soviets.

And they’re not ignoring him, LOL. Understandalby however they aren’t exactly bragging about the fact the leader of Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin, the Mujahedeen faction that received the most American aid during the Soviet War in Afghanistan (not because it was the largest, but because it was the most radically Islamist and therefore the most uncompromisingly anti-Communist) is now fighting them. It’s “a little bit” unconvenient.

How exactly are the taliban representative of the pashtuns?

furthermore what about the 18 years span of time renders taliban history irrelevant?

my point about the warlords was that the soviets spent a lot more time and effort attacking normal afghans whereas the us military is actually directing their efforts towards the taliban. But now we seem to be debating the nature of what these words mean and truth be told there is no such thing as afghanistan so I guess I shouldnt consider any person to be representative.

I am starting to think that our whole dispute is due to my reference to hekmatyar, whose political career is actually representative of afghan politicians in general (which actually do exist).

No, we’re debating because you’re making bold pronouncements on a matter you are ignorant off. Who the Taleban were in 1996 is irrelevant, because that is no longer who the US is fighting. The Americans are in fact battling a people’s war little different from that faced by the Soviets. It is a fact the Americans referr to the resistance as the Taleban (though they themselves are as likely to deem themselves the Mujahedeen), but that does not mean that is who the resistance is composed off. In reality resistance by now is much wider than former regime elements and alleged semi-aliens from Pakistan, consisting of both people who do not think of themselves as the Taleban as well as people who may be ultimately led and directed by Taleban but joined only after 2001 and never saw an inch of Pakistan. Americans are in fact battling a Pashtun tribal insurrection, not refugees from Pakistan, the fact they will call any Pashtun who resists them a “Taleban” does not change that.

The difference in casualty levels comes from the fact the war is less intense, this primarily on the account of the fact Americans being even more weary of casualties and even less invested in winning (as opposed to just not losing) the war than the Soviets were, are much less pro-active than the Soviets were so you naturally have less battles and less destruction (that destruction which there is, however, is just as indiscriminate). Additional factors that make the war less intensive is the resistance this time around having much less foreign backing is less capable, that it has found a way to profit from the occupation (extortion for passage of supply convoys), that the resistance does not doubt the Americans will be gone eventually, that occupation does not mean the imposition of godless Communism but something a little bit more bearable, and that Tajiks after the harsh rule of the Pashtun-based Taleban are weary of repetition of a similar scenario and largely uninterested in active resistance.

so we have been arguing about definitions this whole time. Awesome.

in order to have battles, you have to have someone to fight. My claim is that the us military is focusing their combat power on fewer people which results in fewer casualties. Naturally, this would appear to make the war “less intense” from the perspective of someone who reads newspapers and history books. In reality, it means there is less fighting.

and you appear to have defined away one of the distinguishing effects of the resistance, which is that it seeks to impose its own islamic government on the afghan territory, but thats ok, I dont feel like arguing with you about the motives of illiterate radical muslims that you say dont exist.

You’re ignorant, full of it, moving the goalposts and trying to wiggle out of it. You make me sick. No we don’t have different definitions, we were talking about the same thing, the resistance the Americans are fighting. It is only that you don’t have the least bit of clue who they are but I do. What you claim means jack shit because you don’t know anything. You’re talking out of your arse. Don’t you comprehend that when it comes to reality you don’t get to just make shit up? Reality is what reality is and has nothing to do with arbitrary, uninformed, imbecilic figments of your imagination.

Obama terror drones: CIA tactics in Pakistan include targeting rescuers and funerals Not targeting the people, eh? God damn, you have no shame! How can you lie through your teeth like that?

ISAF Data: Night Raids Killed Over 1,500 Afghan Civilians

“Noor Behram, who had been on the ground in Pakistan tallying the dead, estimating that “for every 10 to 15 people killed, maybe they get one militant”."

Go cover yourself in shame.

The Soviet war in Afghanistan was a proxy war made all the more bloody by foreign governments (like the United States - see Charlie Wilson’s War for the propagandized version) providing the Mujahideen with financial and military support, while Russia and India did likewise for the Afghan government side. Throw money and materiel at it and watch from afar as they kill each other by the tens of thousands while we cheer for “our side” and politicians polish their goodguy badge, boasting of our benevolent foreign policy that helps the poor Afghans.

Also, for the US to fight in Afghanistan the troops and everything else must be transported and stationed halfway around the world. I believe I read that it costs us over a million dollars per year for each soldier stationed over there. The Russians are right next door to it. And like you said, “natives killed” (or damage caused) may not be a particularly useful metric here.

Of course another way to look at it is our government had no plan or intention to get in / out as fast as possible. After all, defense budgets and contractors benefit greatly from the increased demand that results from long drawn-out conflicts.

Afghanistan isnt pakistan, the cia isnt the militaRy, and you have made several incorrect assumptions about me. I am sorry we couldnt have a reasonable discussion despite my willingness to learn from you. Raa raaa the us is the great satan bla la bla. Youre probably sick because you realize the taliban are even more statist than the us, and so us propaganda is half true.