@Aristippus: Except that I take a heavily conspiracy-theoretic view of the global economy. My theory is that the external powers - the “kingmakers” - decided a few decades ago that China would be the next big thing so long as the Chinese government got its act together and played along and implemented the desired policies. China did not build itself. China played ball and their economy has been fast-forwarded from the late-medieval era where it had stagnated until about 1970-ish. The Chinese government provided the warm bodies and the external powers provided the ingredients the Chinese government did not have: expertise, technology and capital.
Such a massive investment could not occur in the absence of a plan for very long-term profits. So, my theory is that the external powers will continue to use policy pressure to shift the economic advantages toward China and away from US/Europe for decades to come. China will continue to enjoy lower costs of doing business and remain a more attractive place for capital investment while the US/Europe will continue to increase the costs of doing business and tax away more and more of their national products for interventionist wars and welfare subsidies. In order for the external powers to derive the greatest profit from the situation, they will eventually lure smaller, non-institutional investors to invest in China through their brokers or whatever. Once you start seeing “Invest in China Today!” ads on CNN and FOX, then it’s time to wonder if the China boom is drawing to a close or reversing. Until then, we should all be joining Jim Rogers in Singapore and learning Mandarin.
Clayton -