I think the fireworks begin for Mises right here:
The second type of muddle into which economists commonly
land themselves and others is to start with a plainly synthetic pro-
position, find it inconveniently often falsified, and restate it so as to
make it, in effect, analytic. The laws of Supply and Demand, as
usually stated, provide an example of this, e.g. ’ a rise in price tends,
sooner or later, to decrease demand and to increase supply.'3 In fact,
of course, as in Britain today, we often find that a rise in price of a
particular commodity is followed by an increased demand for it; or,
as in the nineteen-thirries, that a fall in price is followed by a decreased
demand. Rather than say that their account is often false, however,
economists have adopted the procedure either of saying ’ a rise in
price tends, etc.', or of introducing the phrase ceteris paribus. Either
procedure makes the proposition unfalsifiable, since the law can be
exculpated either by saying that opposite tendencies must have been
at work, or that other things didn’t remain the same.
Hmm. Exculpate means, says dictionary.com, “to clear from a charge of guilt or fault; free from blame; vindicate.” In other words, if it’s not falsifiable it is guilty and faulty and in need of vindication.
So here we have to decide whether to expand this into a discussion whether “falsifiable” is the measure of good economics. [I have seen a recent thread challenging this by asking “How can you falsify the following ‘Falsifiability is the measure of good economics’”? Not sure where that will lead.]
Truth is, it is way beyond anything I have studied or given much thought to. Personally I would have thought economics is good to the extent that it increases your understanding of the world, falsifiable or not. Falsifiable is, presumably, only a test of whether it’s good, not a definition of “good”.
My humble opinion is that we should distinguish between theoretical and practical falsifiability.
Let’s say someone in 1950 theorizes that the moon is made of green cheese. That was not practically falsifiable at the time, because we could not get up there and slice off a piece of moon to taste. Does that invalidate it as a starting point for theorizing about the moon? I don’t think so.
For one, such an assumption has many consequences, and those who think it fruitful to pursue those consequences are doing us a service. For instance if we ever achieve space flight, they will tell the astronauts “If you think we are right, take some silverware and napkins with you.”
Also, the consequences might be falsifiable. For example if a long intricate train of logical reasoning leads us to conclude that giant worms will start showing up on the Moon, so huge they are visible from earth, then we’ll falsify it that way.
Also, the theory may simplify and explain many things. If giant worms and bite marks and alien aircarft with McDonalds logos painted on them all start appearing on the moon, as well as many other thing CONSISTENT with its being made of green cheese start happening, but requiring a long list of other explanations [the worms are really giant plastic bags, the bite marks are crater impacts, the aliens are there for the view], that is both indirect evidence for the theory as well as a useful starting point for our provisional understanding of what’s going on up there.
Also, some day it may become falsifiable, with improvements in technology. We may be able to invent rocket ships that reach the moon. Then we will know for sure.
All that applies to the practically UNfalsifiable, but theoretically falsifiable.
The theoretically unfalsifiable is the bad stuff. That is something that essentially says, “No matter what happens in the real world, I am right.” [First, full disclosure. I believe in God]. For example, say a person comes up with a theory that everything that happens is because God did it and He never lies. Then the moon explodes. The next day, the very stars rearrange themselves into a pattern that says “I did not blow up the moon. Signed, God”
Did God blow up the moon? Yes. Did he rearrange those stars? Yes. Was He lying? No, He never lies. So He blew up the moon, and then without lying, declared that He did not blow it up. How do you account for that? We cannot understand the workings of God.
You see the problem. The theory is not only practically, but theoretically, unfalsifiable. No matter what happens, ever, it cannot be shown wrong. The disadvantage of such a thing is that it cannot help us understand, no matter what tools we have at our disposal, why event X happened and not event Y, for any X and Y.
Lest someone care to dispute this distinction between theoretically and practically falsifiable, I would like to point out that those demi-gods, physicists, make practically unfalsfiable hypotheses all the time. They assume the existence of some tiny little subatomic particle to explain things, when the technology doesn’t exist to see it. Oh well, they tell us. Maybe some day technology will advance. Meanwhile it’s a hypothesis worth looking into.
OK, end of first post.