I know many of you aren’t fans of politics but those of you who are please humor me on this bit of gamesmanship.
Ron Paul is claiming throughout the mainstream media that he won’t run as a third party candidate. But if he did claim to run as a third party candidate, boldly and widely, this could actually help him get elected. Many voters consider themselves ‘realists’ because they are simply voting to try to keep their least favorite man from getting in. Say Ron Paul gets 10% of the vote as a third party man. This would most likely detract from the independent/republican block (do you agree on this point? It’s kind of essential to the strategy.). I think he could definitely get 10%, maybe more.
By spreading word of his plans for a 3rd party candidacy, he would be holding the republican party ransom. Anyone who didn’t want Obama would be forced to vote for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary because if they didn’t, then the main election would look like this: Obama 50%, Romney 40%, Paul 10%. This might invite attacks on his life, but I think it’s a good strategy because it’s so daring. They can’t publicly force him not to. If he were vocal about running as third party then the choice for the average republican voter would be to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries or lose the election to Obama.
Yet it would also prevent him from getting votes in general. I’m not sure that the Paulbots, as devoted as they may be, would be enough to change the election significantly.
Note that whenever he is asked he sort of sidesteps the issue. He says “It’s 99.99% sure that I won’t because I’m doing well right now!”
You do have a point, but I think the strategy is too clever for its own good. I think if Paul went around claiming he’d go 3rd party, for one thing, there wouldn’t be as much of a push for the R nomination. Even if it would be a subconscious thing, you’d have less of an “all or nothing” mindset from the supporters…there is a feeling of “oh we have another shot if this doesn’t work out”…which would no doubt affect the support (even if only slightly). Not to mention, you may very well have plenty of supporters who would actually prefer him to be a 3rd party candidate…purists who want it all…they want Paul in but they want to defy the whole system at its core and have an Independent win… Whether to prove it’s possible, to make a bigger splash, to throw it in the mainstream’s face, to have Paul win on a more pure ticket, not affiliated with the major parties of leviathan…or whatever.
These people will actually push and promote the 3rd party route, and it will hurt the R nomination campaign…not only by taking away from it, but in addition adding opposition to it.
Then finally you have everyone else in the mainstream Republican camp…who would just be pissed off, plain and simple. I could see plenty of people voting for someone else just out of disgust for a candidate who is “betraying the cause” or “betraying the party” and “risking handing it to Obama”. They would use it to question Paul’s sincerity and “how much can this guy really care about America if he’s willing to risk giving another 4 YEARS to OBAMA?!”
It sounds like a clever idea, but it’s just not a good one.
“I think he could definitely get 10%, maybe more.”
I’m not sure if I agree on the number but Ron Paul could certainly detract enough votes from the Republican party to sabatoge the entire party. Right now they appear neck and neck with Obama for support in polls, which, however representative, is something that could be totally thrown off by even a small percentage change in public support with the way the electoral college works. This is especially true if freaking Newt Gingrich wins the primary.
“By spreading word of his plans for a 3rd party candidacy, he would be holding the republican party ransom.”
Remember who you’re dealing with here. This might work if you were dealing with a reasonable or rational person. You’re not. You’re dealing with one half of the people who are willing to allow THEY’RE COUNTRY, THE THING THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE ELECTED TO PROTECT AT ALL COST, TO FALL APART from the burden of debt before they would compromise and talk about raising taxes despite being put in a position to do one thing, ONE THING, FIX THE DEBT
You’re dealing with a bunch of grandstanding idiots. There’s a reason why democracy does not work.
Sorry about that. I’m not angry at the United States’ congress or political parties at all twitch
Potential problem - he could spoil his son’s future chances. If he becomes “the libertarian that ruined it all,” Rand Paul may be labeled as “the son of that guy”
Financing might be an issue but he is indeed the favorite at the moment. Don’t ask me why, and even though financing might be an issue, the fact is that it’s hard to see a near future where he’s that much less popular than Paul, and Romney is also much more generally favored.
If Ron runs 3rd party, it means Obama will win. This makes Republicans to hate him even more and makes future of the Rand quite hard. So 3rd party run = No Ron as a president, and lower changes for Rand to become one.