Rothbard's theory of excise taxes - incorrect?

In Power and Market, Rothbard has this to say about excise taxes i.e. taxes levied on a particular good such as oil:

“The partial excise tax is a sales tax levied on some, rather than all, commodities. The chief distinction between this and the general sales tax is that the latter does not, in itself, distort productive allocations on the market, since a tax is levied proportionately on the sale of all final products. A partial excise, on the other hand, penalizes certain lines of production. The general sales tax, of course, distorts market allocations insofar as government expenditures from the proceeds differ in structure from private demands in the absence of the tax. The excise tax has this effect, too, and, in addition, penalizes the particular industry taxed. The tax cannot be shifted forward, but tends to be shifted backward to the factors working in the industry. Now, however, the tax exerts pressure on nonspecific factors and entrepreneurs to leave the taxed industry and enter other, nontaxed industries. During the transition period, the tax may well be added to cost. As the price, however, cannot be directly increased, the marginal firms in this industry will be driven out of business and will seek better opportunities elsewhere. The exodus of nonspecific factors, and perhaps firms, from the taxed industry reduces the stock of the good that will be produced. This reduction in stock, or supply, will raise the market price of the good, given the consumers’ demand schedule. Thus, there is a sort of “indirect shifting” in the sense that the price of the good to consumers will ultimately increase.”

In short, Rothbard argues that introducing or increasing an excise tax on a good will only put the price up by driving suppliers out of the market and therefore reduce the supply. He denies that placing a tax on a particular good will cause a company to increase the price of the good so that the consumer has to pay extra to cover the tax. However, this theory seems to be contradicted by varying oil prices.

This link (http://www.opec.org/home/PowerPoint/Taxation/taxation.htm) shows) shows that oil prices are highest in the UK where the tax on fuel is highest. This hasn’t come about due to the UK tax causing a decline in oil producers and supply as the UK gets its oil from the same companies and locations as other countries.

So was Rothbard wrong or have I misinterpreted the data?

Although each nation gets their oil from the same companies and locations, it seems reasonable to assume based on Rothbard’s analysis, that more oil will tend to be distributed, and more oil-distributing capital goods (e.g. refineries, gas stations, etc) will be shifted into the lower tax regions.

It is not clear where the taxes in the graph are coming from, however, I suspect that they are some sort of average of the taxes levied on all oil based products in each respective country, rather than on the FOB oil itself. “This graph illustrates the wide regional variations in prices of different energy products.” (Not specifically the FOB oil itself, but its byproducts - the ‘different energy products’ - and so it is the supply of oil byproducts which is affected by the tax).

That’s irrelevant, you’d have to find out how much oil is actually being sold in the UK as compared to other countries.

When’s the last time the UK, or any western country for that matter, invested in any new refining capacity?

Plus some anecdotal evidence…the windfall profits tax that the socialist presidential candidates in the US are proposing would make no sense if the costs were just passed straight on to the consumer (thus raising the price of gas even higher than the pre-tax level) instead of cutting into the ‘excessive’ profits the oil companies are making.

Finally, I would propose that the higher levels of the price of a liter of gas going to the ‘industry margin’ could be a reflection on this since it doesn’t claim that this is the profit level but the amount of a liter of gas that goes into this portion of the process. The marginal players have been pushed out by the higher levels of taxation which led to shortages in refining capacity & etc. Pure speculation though and also assuming I’m understanding what Rothbard is saying here correctly.

It’s really hard to make any conclusion from this data since there are far from pure market forces setting the price of gas at the pump.

Oh, and your link is borked.

Good analysis