Swap Paul and Romney percentage and you’ll be closer. I’d say it’d go closer to 15% for Paul. Maybe. Don’t forget the Ross Perot stats. Yes, I’m aware Ron Paul is at the head of a revolution, but it’s still pretty early in said revolution. Sure the tipping point may have already been crossed, but that doesn’t mean everything changes this election cycle. Leviathan is still pretty large, and the people are still largely sheep. And if you notice, it took the Paul campaign almost 4 or 5 days just to raise $1 million in the latest moneybomb a couple weeks ago. (Granted, it didn’t seem to be as canvassed as others have been, but still.)
And after '92, the establishment made sure no third party would ever get in the main debates again. And there is no way in the hell of hells that Ron Paul is going to break through that barrier.
It’s been said before but it’s true: the only thing a Ron Paul 3rd party run would do is piss off rank-and-file Republicans and ruin any chance for a Rand Paul run. Plus Ron doesn’t want to do it anyway.
No, the 1st choice path is to garner enough Santorum delegates to force a brokered convention. It’s a long shot, but it’s possible. Paul was already in good shape in the caucus process for something like half a dozen states…good enough for a plurality of delegates in multiple caucuses. If he were able to gain enough Santorum delegates and keep Romney from getting the needed majority, he could quite conceivably win the nomination. It’s been done before.
Short of that, I’d say just continue the Campaign for Liberty and leverage as much of a concession from Romney as possible (even if it’s just a speaking slot), and just watch Obama win.