Spain "in a state of dissolution"

Miscellaneous Current Events
1

Former Preside of Spain, José María Aznar, warns that Spain is on the verge of dissolution. He gives a number of warning signs:

  1. The weakening of the concept of Spain as a State.
  2. The State of Spain is “starving”.
  3. The economic crisis.
  4. Spain’s irrelevant role in international politics.

Spain is, indeed, in a dire fiscal situation. Zapatero says that recovery will begin some time in the near future, but in reality the Spanish government’s spending relies heavily on the low interest rates currently provided by the ECB. The ECB recently said that it would not wait for Spain to raise the main refinancing rates when the time came to do it (supposedly, in April 2010). So, Spain is really around second to Greece in terms of fiscal stability, and it seems very likely that Spain will have to declare bankruptcy in the near future. In that case, there would be several options the government could take, which include abandoning the Euro and re-adopting the peseta (and in an effort to nationalize the currency and control it from the Bank of Spain).

In any case, in the midst of recession a lot of opportunistic Catalán politicians (including president of F.C. Barcelona, Joan Laporta) are pushing the case for secession. Amongst Spanish nationalists, this is a pretty scary concept.

As a former falangista, I wonder why they worry so much. Who cares? I used to be very closed minded to the idea of an independent Cataluña or País Vasco, but now I wonder why we care so much. Even with these territories as part of “Spain”, it’s clear to us and everyone else that what really makes up Spain is Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha and Madrid (these are the core regions of Spain, with regions such as Valencia and Andalucía forming part because most of their populations probably consider themselves Spanish, as opposed to their regional “nationalities”). Even looking beyond what is really Spain and the point of maintaining a presence in areas which we don’t even consider Spanish, Cataluña is the breeding ground of such political groups as the UGT (communist syndicate) and the CNT (anarchist syndicate).

The allies of the current PSOE party (ruling party in Spain; ex-Marxist turned socialist in the 1980s) have already called for the introduction of a command economy. These coalitions gain much of their strength from the margin regions of Spain.

In all honesty, it would probably be to the Spanish peoples’ benefit if these regions were allowed to break away and whither away economically and politically. They are chains on any possible liberal resurgence in Spain.

From my personal experience, most people in Spain occupy one of two extremities: either they are for independence and very socialist, or they are vehemently against it (and operate behind the veneer of capitalism, but are really socialists). I currently live in San Diego, but I wonder what my country will look like when I go back in two years.

2

Perhaps they belive that Spain is the marriage of Castile and Aragon. Perhaps they belive that If the Catalans go, you are back to being merely Castilians.

3

Sounds good to me.

4

The Basques, Catalans, Galicians, and Andalusians will all probably break off and make their own states, if you ask me.

5

It would be wonderful if Spain breaks up into a number of small, Monaco-esque city states. The world needs a secession success story that people can point to and stimulate new discussion regarding the subject, hopefully legitimizing the concept and allowing people to consider applying it to the individual as well.

6

The Statists won’t let it happen without a fight. Expect a civil war if such movements even gain a modicum of success…

Edit: Wouldn’t the EU and their member states be obligated under the Lisbon Constitution Treaty to intervene if secession occurred in another member nation?

It sure would be historically ironic if a Spanish civil war preceded another European war in the middle of an international economic depression…

7

What do you think of the chances given the government policy on national unity?

8

That would be so awesome. I don’t know how else to put it.

9

This would be a curious scenario indeed. I assume the general mood in Europe tends to be unfavorable towards another war on their own soil. I also get the general impression that people aren’t quite sold on the idea of the European Union over there. If the EU member states decide to start a war over a few secessions, it could possibly lead to the dissolution of that organization entirely as people realize what sort of monster they have created.

Or it could be like the American civil war, in which case, Europe would be screwed.

10

These problems seemed almost inevitable in Spain and Greece two years ago. If the situation is indeed that dire, let’s hope everything is settled relativly peacefully

11

This was the same in the time of another major European treaty: Versailles…

It’s irrelevant if the people are “sold” on the idea of the EU. They carry the currency of the organization and, to paraphrase Rothschild, if you control the currency you control everything. Besides, the insidiousness of the EU and its now-provincial governments has been shown to have no bounds. Most countries weren’t even given referendums on the beast and those that were and rejected it, e.g. Ireland and Czechoslovakia to an extent, were simply asked to repeat the referendum until the “colleagues” received the answer they wanted.

I don’t believe a war would dissolve the EU, I believe it would strengthen the beast immeasurably.

12

No chance it will happen. The EU will not only not allow a single member State to default on its debt and it will not allow a single member State to have a part of it seceding, no matter the cost for all the serfs. Greece won’t default its debt and Spain will remain whole, end of story. In short there’s no hope of change, unless you consider higher (direct and indirect) taxes and less individual freedom “change”.

13

How can they “not allow” default?

14

Simple, the EU steps in to guarantee Greek debt. “Share the burden” as they say. To say I am “delighted” at the idea is an understatement.

15

That`s not true. It is not up to the EU to allow secession. It is up to the national capitals. Nor does the EU has a reason to oppose secession. All the significant political parties pushing for secessions are pro-EU and do not argue for leaving the union. Secessions are a long shot for other reasons, nothing to do with Brussels.

16

I guess that was what he meant when the prime minister of Greece announced that the state’s sovereignty was threatened by the upcoming default. Greece is going to be owned by the ECB, if they decide to save it.

17

consolidation of power… the on-going centuries old statist game. control and power, that’s the only reason to even have a central plan in society. the central plan can’t have any loose, unknown variables within it’s domain - or else those variables would be outside of the organization, outside of the domain, and no need for the centralization. But obviously it is being centrally planned so on goes the consolidation of what is within the domain.

18

The political situation in 1936 was different from that of 2009. One of the important factors was the size of the military: the right-wing attitude held by most members of the military and the fact that the most important troops (during the first months of the war) were not even Spanish (Moroccan Regulares). Furthermore, Republican forces committed many early mistakes (such as the fact that the government refused to arm the CNT and UGT, until the syndicates just took the weapons themselves).

There was a military coup in Spain in 1982, led by del Bosch, Tejero and Armada and it failed due to two major reasons: lack of support from King Juan Carlos I and the fact that the other generals were unsure whether or not they should join in. I think that any coup today would suffer from the same problems, and would even be more severely handicapped by the fact that the mentality has changed amongst the enlisted ranks. There was a threat of a coup in 2005 and the Chief of Staff was put under house arrest and fired. The Zapatero administration pretty much forced a large percentage of male general officers to retire and replaced them with females. There was, in effect, a purge.

In the event of secession, there may be riots and violence, but there simply is not the strength for a full fledge civil war. This is especially true of Cataluña seceeded by public vote.

19

Dude, you gotta write a book about Spain. Maybe start with a Austrolibertarian-leaning tourist guide book? I’d pay for that.

20

Not directly related to the opening post, but I just saw this post by Paul Krugman (I can’t believe I missed it before):

We — that is, the United States — have a floating exchange rate. Spain, however, being part of the euro zone, does not. Its wages are too high compared with those of other eurozone members, now that the housing boom and massive capital inflows are over. If Spain still had a peseta, I’d say devalue it; since it doesn’t, wages have to give.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Krugman is being a bit hypocritical here, is he not? He says that if Spain did not use the euro it could devalue the peseta instead of lowering wages. Is that not one in the same? Whether you decrease the value of the currency or your lower the nominal wage, the end result is a decrease in the real wage. Has he not just contradicted everything he’s said in regards to high real wages and the minimum wage?