Thoughts on the Arab unrest

Miscellaneous Current Events
21

Other than UAE and Saudi Arabia, which get by on oil money and slave labor, all those other countries are dirt poor. Give me a break. All the monarchies and ‘republics’ are way under European countries with democracies. Germany literally has a GDP 10 times that of Saudi Arabia. 3 times more than the entire Arab league. Egypt and Algeria are wealthier than Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain and Qatar. Even with nominal democracies which they have yet to even try.

Rank Country GDP (millions of USD) 2009 - World 57,937,460 - Arab League 1,624,042 1 Saudi Arabia 369,671 2 United Arab Emirates 229,971 3 Egypt 187,954 4 Algeria 140,848 5 Kuwait 111,309 6 Morocco 90,815 7 Qatar 83,910 8 Iraq 65,838 9 Libya 60,351 10 Sudan 54,677 11 Oman 53,395 12 Syria 52,524 13 Tunisia 40,168 14 Lebanon 33,585 15 Yemen 25,131 16 Jordan 22,929 17 Bahrain 20,214 18 Palestine 6,641 19 Mauritania 3,029 20 Somalia 2,763 21 Djibouti 1,049 22 Comoros 532

Why wouldn’t it be an answer to switch to democracy again?

And that’s just a picture of Dubai which has only developed recently. All the other Arab countries have full cities which look more or less like that, monarchy or not. And did so much sooner than 1990. Their improvements the same. I don’t see how this picture is proof of monarchy or anything else. And Dubai had a monarch before 1990. Which caused that first picture. And other than construction, all of these monarchies are a nightmare in terms of liberties. This is mainly what I am talking about in them not being an ‘answer’. They don’t even have the benefit of being ‘autonomous’ either, whether to the world or within. So I don’t see how your wish for autonomy is in any related. On the one hand you’re saying they shouldn’t have to pay taxes or follow laws. On the other hand, you’re saying one person over a large geographical area should order them to pay taxes and do work for his benefit per his own laws.

I think you are just projecting Hoppean dogma onto this situation. And worse in a very cynical manner. They can’t have free markets or libertarianism, so let them be serfs to monarch who can force them to build big cities on oil money. As if their only demand is faster city building.

22

Revolutions are very dangerous. Popular revolt may get rid of a broken regime, it can also quickly turn power over to genocidal maniacs. This is why free countries are made by pioneers and not by politicians.

23

We should remember that Egypt already tried the nationalization road in the past. In 1956 they nationalized the Suez Channel (leading to Operation Musketeer, which was a resounding military succesful but a complete political failure) and in 1963 Nasser nationalized the whole Egyptian economy following looming bankruptcy caused by years of bad economics and precipitated by intervention in the Yemen civil war. This was such a blow that it required years (and massive foreign aids) to recover: those entrepreneurs (be them Muslims, Copts or Jews) who hadn’t left when King Farouk was overthrown fled now. Most of them were left penniless since Nasser, ever the good Socialist, had seized all their assets. No wonder he was made a hero of the Soviet Union. In laters year Nasser tried to lure at least some of them back by forcing the chief theologicians at the Cairo mosques and religious schools (widely respected in the whole Muslim world) to issue a fatwa proclaiming all “heretical” Muslims, like Shiites, Druzes and Ismailites to have become “reconcilied” with Sunni orthodoxy. Few if any did bite the hook and Saudi Arabia, both as the traditional defender of Sunni Orthodoxy and opponent to Nasser’s “secular” agenda, was suitably enraged. When he was forced to leave power after suffering a massive stroke his successor, Sadat, immediately set upon a vast program of “de-nationalization” to try breath some fresh air into the country.

A particular area of concern is the fact that corruption is very widespread in Egypt: in countries like Tunisia and Libya most of the nation’ wealth is concentrated in the hands of the ruling familes. In Egypt there are many who stand to lose their cushy jobs and high profits if, say, Mubarak is forced to flee the country and the Muslim Brotherhood will take over. Most of the factories in Suez or Alexandria are owned by people with deep connections to Army generals (Egypt has a very long tradition of the military running the country, Mubarak being just the last of a long line), powerful bureaucrats and high ranking members of the NDP. They have much to lose and won’t go down quietly.

In the meantime we are witnessing the West being completely caught pants down. They expected Mubarak to keep the status quo forever: perhaps they expected him to live forever or to rule from the grave like Kim Il-Sung. They knew perfectly well about how brutal their chum was: CIA actually outsourced torture of “terrorists” to the Egyptians. Yet they kept showering him with money and strongly encouraging tourism, a good source of hard currency, to the last minute. People in the Arab world are literally shocked the Economic Forum is meeting in Davos to talk about Global Warming while their world is burning. They are shocked EU and US officials are treating this crisis like nothing more than nuisance instead of responding more strngly, for example by asking Mubarak to step down or to give in to demands.

About the military. It’s amazing how the brutal Egyptian police melted away in a matter of days. Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya reported that today very few, if any, policemen were seen in the streets of Cairo. The army is keeping a very strange aptitude: they are just staying there guarding buildings, doing nothing. Military is very well regarded in Egypt (hence the enthusiastic greetings) and traditionally speaking they don’t regard policing the streets as their duty. I suspect the high ranks are carefully monitoring the situation to see where the wind is blowing.

Either way I think the West will have some more problems on their hands by the year end.

24

The west, or poor Israel? Great post, as always!

25

In my opinion, it is very unlikely that they will go to becoming like Saudi Arabia in government. Even if the Muslim Brotherhood and Copts probably don’t want democracy in the long run. Democracy being incompatible with minorities like Copts… and Sharia Law. Though, I think Copts do not like this government either. But maybe fear it toppling since they might be screwed in the case of instability in changing governments (and in most likely in the final government: whether it is monarchy, democracy, an Islamist dictator, etc.). Remember that Algeria in the 1980s was able to counter Afghani-style Islamism in the wake of revolution, though their revolution has still yet to pan out to anything yet. There is a chance of these people sneaking in and a history of this occuring in North Africa, but there is also a history of resistance.

Most of the Egyptians I have spoken to are highly religious, but have few problems with Western or American culture. In fact, I am surprised at their knowledge and openness to American things. Even while at the same time hating Israeli aggression (which we are responsible for). Which is about at the level of Europeans, but without the snarky elitism I encounter among European thinkers. I suspect they will become like the paragraph above from the Tunisian.

Nothing about Mohamed Elbaradei seems different than the people who I have met. He is reasonable, smart, not particularly Islamist, knows the pulse of Egyptian society, etc. In fact, the Islamists are trying to slander him because his daughter is an ‘agnostic’ on facebook and there are some hot pics of her in a bikini on the web. Also, there is a picture of wine someone drank at her wedding. Pretty funny slander tactics, but also a bit sad. He looks like a very good hope.

I suspect they will become a mediocre democracy much more broad sets of rights and involvement among the citizens. They will have to compromise with Copts and Islamists and other groups. Which is a good start. Though, the impression I get from Arabs is that they don’t take for granted that the European models of government and infallibility are true. They are skeptical of government as well as imperialism. Whether they are secular or religious in their beliefs. You can’t get any European to criticize government unless it isn’t giving them money or pensions. But the same isn’t true of Arabs. When you have countries that are so tightly controlled, you tend not to take for granted how important mobility and trade and markets are. The only thing I can think of is that because of American aggression and puppetry in the region, we may have discredited relatively free markets the way we have almost completely discredited secularism in their eyes. Though, as I said… talking to Europeans is like talking to a door. While talking to Arabs is usually more fruitful and enlightening, in my experience.

But remember that Europe, as well as America, started with democracy that granted pretty free markets in order to grow itself and its society too. And only later switched more socialist-y systems as they had the wealth enabling them to rest on their laurels. It may be that new and free governments pull them out of the last century. And then only later do they become like Europe is today. On the other hand, by the time they get there, the European governments will have crashed. And that route will seem like a deadend by then.

26

@John Ess,

, and look poor to you? Throwing in GDP figures is cool, but you know what’s cooler? GDP per capita! , and the UAE are ALL richer than .

  1. has not one drop of oil, and all its breakneck development is the result of an incredible idea of its Emir.

  2. Its easy to say that oil makes the other ME countries rich, but isn’t soak full of oil too? So, oil is far from enough.

  3. Monarchy does not ensure that the very best will happen all of the time. was undeveloped prior to the ’90 because it was a fishing village on a desert, and no one thought that it was possible to make something of it. I hardly see it as a minus for monarchy, when a monarch achieves something no democracy ever has, yet does it at some point in time and not prior to it.

  4. No civil liberties? In Dubai English common law is the norm, which is the most freedom-friendly system of law I know of. The other countries are indeed less free than a western might like, but you must know that the local population in, say , hates the King because laws are not strict enough! By their religious standards, is a capitalist heaven. So, let us keep in mind the population mentality before speaking of liberties. Under the circumstances, SA is as free as it could be, and is risking revolution every day to keep that degree of freedom, at the very least for westerns working there in their own closed communities (something else the locals hate their King for allowing).

  5. It is true that monarchy is not very friendly towards local autonomy and that’s why I said I’d prefer autonomy and than, if that turned out to be impossible, monarchy.

  6. Finally not one country, European or otherwise, industrialized while being a democracy. Democracy followed development. All democracy has done it to squander the capital stock inherited. If you can point to one counter-example, please furnish it.

So in general I see the ME as the clearest proof of Hoppe’s theory of Monarchy vs. democracy.

27

I’d disagree with this. They hate the king because of the obvious american-backed support, the fact that the royalty outlaw everything under the banner of Islam but party up all day themselves with drugs, alcohol, prostitutes the usual thing- and the insane rulings by their judges which pass out death sentences like its 1999. It is the prison state. If we were to go by religious standards anyway- a capitalist heaven is much preferred- Muhammad was a merchant afterall. There probably are some that think a few laws aren’t strict enough- but it’d be faulty to paint a simple picture of an entire population.

28

Ironically Israel would benefit from a Muslim government in Egypt: they could easily squeeze the US for more money and political support. They could even see a longtime ambition of theirs materialize: US military in the country. Israel has been lobbying for at least two decades to have the headquarters of the US Sixth Fleet (currently in Gaeta, near Naples) moved to Haifa. That would mean living directly under the US military umbrella.
If there’s a country that has a lot to lose in the area is Saudi Arabia. The Mecca may be the Holy City, but Islam has always had a special place for Egypt. It is by far the largest Arab-speaking country. Its universities and religious schools have always been the most prestigious in the Arab world. Its influence in the Arab culture is huge: just to give an example Egypt has the fourth largest movie industry in the world, after India, China and the US. We must also remember that up to the '30s Egypt had the incredible privilege of providing the kiswa, the embroided silk cloth which covers the Kaaba, the sacrest place of Islam. The privilege was briefly granted again in 1963 by King Faysal as a gesture of goodwill following the Yemeni Civil War. The mighty Ottoman Caliphs only acquired this privilege when the conquered Egypt in 1517 and lost it when Mehmet Alì became de facto an independent ruler in 1805. It was a huge blow to their already declining prestige.

The problems the West face are huge. Should the Muslim Brothers come to power, we would be faced with a much less amenable leadership in a vital country (just one word: Suez Canal). A succesful revolution could ignite the whole area. I bet old Colonel Khadafi has his hands full right now: he allegedly promised 24 billions $ () to various poverty relief programs. He’s much younger than Mubarak, being 68, but power and eccentricities have worn him down to a shadow of his former self. The charismatic leader is now a tired old man more concerned with squeezing money out of a decadent and ever-afraid Europe than listening to his own people. Gone were the days when he would live in a tent and listen to the people: he now lives a recluse surrounded by an all-female “pretorian guard”. Turning into an US ally for the “War on Terror” after being a stalwart anti-US nationalist has destroyed his credibility. Failure to stop the thousands of immigrants pouring in from the south and to control his five sons has done the rest. Should Mubarak be replaced by another military strongman we would be able to buy some time which should not be wasted. Some “limited” reforms could appease the Egyptians and, if imposed upon other rulers, could help defuse the situation. Will be the West so farsighted?

29

Saudi Arabia or Dubai are not free. I’m afraid you have been lied to. Unless you mean free to shop and deal as a multinational corporation. I never read the mandate to wear your burka or never show affection in public in the British common law. In fact, many Muslims consider the Saudis out of their minds. That is, the ones in the half-ass republics. I’m afraid you are playing homo economicus and representing only one aspect of society. That which leads to dollar signs. You see that they play with multinationals, and assume it is a free country.

I don’t know where you get the statistics that Dubai doesn’t have oil, either. Though, they do have money from tourism that they built on top. They are now running out of money due to calculation problem. Dubai is not a country like Egypt either and is just a part of the UAE. As for UAE, the main export is of course oil.

I checked IMF and then went to wolfram alpha’s data. And found out some data. Correct it, if it is wrong.

Germany has a GDP per capita (PPP) of about 41,000 dollars. The monarchies are wildly uneven.

Saudi Arabia has GDP per capita of about 18,600 dollars; not very high. UAE combined is about 64,000 (though they don’t count migrant slave workers). Kuwait about 54,000. Oman 18,000. Qatar about 89,000. Bahrain 28,000.

Looking at a graph over time, SA had a big year during 1980 of around 20,000… then a huge slump where it dropped below 10,000. Staying there for a decade and a half. And didn’t recover until about the current year. Before 1970… it was pretty dismal. Hundreds or so like you’ll read below about Yemen. Kuwait was about the same mediocre PPP of around 10000 until around 7 or 8 years ago. Qatar had the same trend as SA… a big year around 1980… then a huge slump… but they actually achieved exponential growth somehow 7 or 8 years ago.

Also, you are selectively choosing monarchies. All of these have lower or about the same PPP than Egypt ($2200) or Tunisia ($4000):

Morocco (2,800$) Jordan (3,900$). Morocco was about 1000 until very recently. Same for Jordan. In fact, the graphs look exactly the same as Egypt. Real poor until the last decade or so.

Yes, a lot of monarchies have high GDP and PPP, but that doesn’t mean it is a one way ticket to paradise. On the one hand in terms of personal liberty, and on the other hand actual PPP or GDP. There is no way to know which type of monarchy they will get… one that is crap or one that hits the jackpot. And then there are the mediocre ones like SA with not much PPP or personal freedom. Even the ‘good ones’ seem to be unpredictable in the past and may be so in the future. I don’t even know what accounts for the wealth in the monarchies entirely. I hate to go on numbers without further variables.

And can we add in other absolute rulers? I wonder if monarchy is not different in their opposition to democracy. Libya is around 14,000 for their absolute ruler; not terrible for an Islamic socialist. About the same as ‘free market’ of SA. Sudan with their genocidal dictator has 1300. Iran is 4000. Somalia… with their autonomy and warlords/kings together… eek out a measly 298.

30

Interesting update in Egypt- lack of police presence has forced people to set up their own security checkpoints and protect property due to all the looting. Listening to Al-jazeera people are saying “we don’t need police we can protect our property and honor ourselves”.

31

Saudi Arabia or Dubai are not free. I’m afraid you have been lied to. Unless you mean free to shop and deal as a multinational corporation. I never read the mandate to wear your burka or never show affection in public in the British common law. In fact, many Muslims consider the Saudis out of their minds. That is, the ones in the half-ass republics. I’m afraid you are playing homo economicus and representing only one aspect of society. That which leads to dollar signs. You see that they play with multinationals, and assume it is a free country.

Again it is my impression too that SA is not free, yet what I’m trying to say is that even the mediocre amount of freedom they have is due to the royals swimming against the current of popular opinion. Plus, and it’s a big plus to me, I believe that western communities in SA are left to their own. I’m afraid that during day one of any ‘republican’ revolution in SA such western communities would be massacred.

As for Dubai, the rest of the UAE operates under Sharia, but Dubai, and here lies the genius of the Emir, is operating under English common law specifically provided by a retired British judge. If you can point to some reference of Islamic laws being enforced in Dubai, I’ll take it back.

I don’t know where you get the statistics that Dubai doesn’t have oil, either. Though, they do have money from tourism that they built on top. They are now running out of money due to calculation problem. Dubai is not a country like Egypt either and is just a part of the UAE. As for UAE, the main export is of course oil.

You said that yourself, the UAE has oil, Dubai is barren desert. And the UAE is the only country which I’d consider a truly decentralized entity, as most of the power is exercised by the Emirates, not the union. Heck, Abu Dhabi even has its own military. When Dubai World went bust and the Emir refused to bail it out, the Union could not force him, but it took the Abu Dhabi Emir to put down his own money to bail it out.

So perhaps the success of the UAE is due to decentralization and not due to monarchy. Yet I don’t think monarchy hurts either.

Yes, a lot of monarchies have high GDP and PPP, but that doesn’t mean it is a one way ticket to paradise.

Agreed. What I’m saying is that I see monarchies tending to produce more prosperity (or consume less of it). It is dependent on the personality of the King, but yet I myself would go with that over the ‘personality’ of the mob. The countries you mention are not evenly wealthy, yet the question is how much wealthier would they had been under republics?

Kuwait, the only rich country in the area that’s not an absolute monarchy, is trying to give more power back to the Emir after what they see as a dismal experience with democracy (if you like a link to an article, I can find one) and, specifically being under the impression of falling behind their monarchic neighbors.

My own country was far freer back with the King, and I’d like to have monarchy reinstalled (I’d love UAE0style decentralization even more).

Somalia… with their autonomy and warlords/kings together… eek out a measly 298.

Where did they start out in 1990? That is the question.

32

That entire region is just a circus on oil stilts.