- Keynes says recessions are caused by lack of demand.
My q is, is there a refutation or disproof of Keynes’ theory of the cause?
Chapter 7 of the DeSoto book I was referred to seems to hit the spot.
I’ll summarize what I “got” of it so far.
Keynes’ analysis: Mr Frisbee, owner of a frisbee factory, notices that people aren’t buying as many frisbees anymore [=lack of aggregate demand].
“What shall I do?” Mr Frisbee asks himself. “I know, I’ll start making less frisbees, since obviously no one is going to buy them.”
“But what about all those people who I am paying to make the frisbees?” “I got it. I’ll fire them.”
Enter the recession.
I’ll write DeSoto’s refutation in the form of a dialogue between Keynes and Mises.
Mises: So Maynard, how are you going to end this recession?
Keynes: We’ll attack the root cause. Not enough buying of frisbees.
Mises: And how will you do that?
Keynes: Oh posh, there are many ways. Have the gov’t buy the frisbees. Or hire currently unemployed people to do any work at all so they will have plenty of money and will buy frisbees once again.
Mises: But that won’t work because [insert correct reason here. Not the place for that in this post]
Keynes: OK then, we can give Mr Frisbee more money, or at least lend it to him cheap. He will build a new frisbee factory, hire more workers, these formerly unemployed wretches will now have money in their pocket, and they will buy frisbees. Aggregate demand has been increased, recession over, everyone happy.
Mises: But that won’t work because [insert correct reason here].
Keynes: OK, smartypants, what do you propose then?
Mises: I agree with you that we have to attack the root problem.
Keynes: Which is that people aren’t buying frisbees.
Mises: No.
Keynes: NO? I’m stunned. You disagree with my above mentioned incisive analysis?
Mises: Oh, it’s perfectly valid as far as it goes. But it’s like walking into a movie and watching it from the middle, not from the beginning.
Keynes: What do you mean? What’s missing?
Mises: You say the problem starts because people aren’t buying frisbees.
Keynes: Yes.
Mises: But tell me, WHY aren’t they buying frisbees all of a sudden?
Keynes: Who knows? Who cares? Probably because they are stupid or cowardly or suddenly suffering from some mass insanity. What’s your point?
Mises: If we knew WHY they aren’t buying, maybe we could figure out how to get them to buy again.
Keynes: HA! And I bet you think you know why they aren’t buying, eh Professor Freud?
Mises: They aren’t buying because they have been fired from their jobs.
Keynes: Ho ho ho. I said Person A gets fired cause Person B isn’t buying frisbees. You are saying person B isn’t buying frisbees cause he himself got fired. But what got Person B fired? Gotcha there, hahaha.
Mises: Person B got fired because his employer, Mr Entrepeneur, was in the middle of building a factory and ran out of money. He had no choice but to send Mr B home and gaze sadly at his unfinished shell of a factory. [Insert explanation how Mr Entrepeneur got into this fix. Bottom line: The Fed printed too much money and Mr E got hold of enough of it to start his factory, but not enough to finish it].
There follows long discussion how to get Mr Entrepeneur out of his mess so he can rehire Mr B to finish the factory. Mises explains how helping Mr E is not gonna solve the problem.
Keynes: So what then? You have shown that every possible thing the gov’t can do is worse than useless.
Mises: There are still plenty of people with money and good ideas. We just have to wait patiently for them to start their schemes going, then they will hire Mr B to build their factory, and all will be well.
Do I have it right?