http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36322393/ns/business-businessweekcom//
I’m really not sure what to say; I hate when this comes out because the vast bulk of society isn’t, shall we say, economically literate, so they have a natural inclination to believe what the news media tells them regarding said policies. sigh The never-ending war with the state is tiring, no?
I laughed when I read “mortgage rates are low.” No kidding.
But anyways, I always thought all this money printing would be good for asset prices for a while.
Fri. 10/04/09 20:07 EDT
.post #56
The first thing I “said” (to myself) was this:
If “the economy is perking up,” is that because of Obamanomics, or in spite of it?
Post hoc ergo propter hoc.
People don’t need any “economic literacy” to realize that whenever something good happens, politicians are quick to claim responsibility, and whenever anything bad happens, politicians look for a scapegoat to sacrifice.
However, economic literacy would help people realize that if the economy is “perking up,” it’s in spite of Obamanomics.
You don’t have to post your post number and the date; those things are automatically registered and displayed already.
I need some help here. I think I know the reply to some of his points, but not all, and am unsure of some as well. Please feel free to comment on my proposed reasons, are they right or not? As usual, light face type is from that website, bold face is my comment. A star [*] before a comment indicates I have no clue and am asking for help. So point by point:
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up more than 74 percent from its recessionary low in March 2009.
Why is this? Peter Schiff might say because people would rather own anything but dollars, seeing as the dollar is likely to hyperinflate.
I also think I heard him say that when the crash came many stocks dipped TOO low, lower than they should have, and now are bouncing back.
Finally, I’ve heard him say that inflation is making stocks go up. As evidence, the price of gold and commodities “have surged”, no to mention all that money printing we know about.
Corporate bonds have been rallying for a year.
Same reasons as above.
Commodity prices have surged.
Same.
International currency markets have been bullish on the dollar for months, raising it by almost 10 percent since Nov. 25 against a basket of six major currencies.
Peter said that this happens because some people, in uncertain times, run to the dollar because they think it is the safest, being the currency used to trade in oil and other important things.
Does this contradict the above, where we said people are trying to get out of the dollar? I don’t think so. The smart ones who are stuck with dollarsa re dumping it in droves. The fools are buying it up, dumping their own currencies in exchange for it. But this last phenomenum is temporary, till the dollar’s weakness becomes known to all.
Housing prices have stabilized.
Through superhuman efforts of the govt, pumping in money to keep interest rates low, and giving tax breaks to home buyers.
Mortgage rates are low.
See right above.
Little more than a year ago, financial markets were in turmoil,
And now they are quiet, because they have hit bottom.
major auto companies were on the verge of collapse
And collapse they did.
and economists such as Paul Krugman were worried about the U.S. slumbering through a Japan-like Lost Decade.
Now the real economists, the Austrians, are certain of it.
While no one would claim that all the pain is past or the danger gone, the economy is growing again, jumping to a 5.6 percent annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009
I think he means GDP has gone up that much. But the part of GDP that has gone up is GOVT SPENDING, [is this true? not sure.], which far from saying the economy is healthy, is saying there is a growing casncer on the economy.
Also, consumer spending is also part of the GDP. If it went up, we are in trouble, too. The typical consumer is in debt, he should not be spending more money. How will he get solvent by spending more?
as businesses finally restocked their inventories.
* This one I know nothing about.
The consensus view now calls for 3 percent growth this year, significantly higher than the 2.1 percent estimate for 2010 that economists surveyed by Bloomberg News saw coming when Obama first moved into the Oval Office.
As above, what kind of growth? Govt spending? Consumer spending? Both bad.
The U.S. manufacturing sector has expanded for eight straight months,
* If this is true, isn’t it good news indeed? How did it happen? Where did they get the money?
the Business Roundtable’s measure of CEO optimism reached its highest level since early 2006,
* These guys are only competent to talk about their own business, I assume. But again, isn’t that a good sign indeed? If they think they will make money, they probably know what they are talking about, right?
and in March the economy added 162,000 jobs — more than it had during any month in the past three years.
I heard that these are mostly census jobs, temporary unproductive govt jobs.
“There is more business confidence out there,” says Boeing CEO Jim McNerney. “This Administration deserves significant credit.”
* How reliable is one person’s opinion. Not sure about this one either.
Amid an uproar over bonuses at government-assisted banks, Obama for the most part chose to respect private employment contracts.
This was a BAD move. Paying these bonuses with taxpayer money.
The article continues with a list of good things Obama has done, which are all bad. This post is not about why what they think is good [bailouts for example] is bad. Rather I’m examining the evidence the article presents that the economy is in good shape.
While jobs have been slow to return, the country has experienced “an incredible productivity boom” that strengthens the economy for an expansion, says Greenhaus of Miller Tabak. Labor productivity, or worker output per hour, grew at a 6.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, capping the biggest one-year gain since 2002.
* This sounds very good, no? Is is just inflation, though?
Over the long run, productivity growth is what raises living standards.
Funny he should say that. Because it’s true. And the q arises, then why not focus on increasing productivity, as opposed to increasingspending by govt and consumers?
Corporate profits also have been rising, up 8 percent in the fourth quarter, putting businesses on a sounder financial foundation to invest and hire as customers return.
* This also sounds very good. Could it also be because of inflation?
I’d appreciate any help on any of this.
Fri. 10/04/09 20:44 EDT
.post #58
The date/time and the post count are, but not the actual post number.
I hope my eccentricities will amuse, rather than annoy you.
Edit: corrected spelling error.
You’re posting even more redundant information now:
You can press the ‘quote’ button instead of manually entering quote tags. This will automatically enter someone’s actual username instead of what you just did.
This will also create an automatic link to that post; notice the little square image in it.
Remember the drug addict analogy. As he gets worse withdrawal crisis become more frequent and more violent and need more dope to be quenched. After getting his fix he’s in bliss but soon will crash land into reality. There will be a point when he’ll either overdose or the dope won’t work anymore and he’ll either realize he needs sobering up and fast or he’ll slowly die in a ditch, penniless and s***faced. I’ve lived through the '80s heroine epidemics and it’s just the same thing just on a larger scale.
Personally I favor the slow death scenario over the hyperinflationary one. No need to wait many years though: it’s already started. The next big crisis should come either late in 2011 or in 2012 though 2010 won’t be as stellar as politicians promised.
I just wish Obama would put Krugman in charge of the economy. Then Krugman can pass a 10 trillion dollar stimulus bill. This way we can just get it over with.
HAHA yea sometimes I think this as well. The quicker the system collapses the quicker things will get better.
Not if people don’t understand the problems.
We have an opportunity to educate people; I think as long as we still have this opportunity in the way we have now we should try to use it. If things go bad you may not have that opportunity anymore, and there is no reason to think that people will understand the cause-effect if/when the system collapses, and we could end up with something worse (and lose all our savings at the same time).
Thats very true. Its a good thing I plan to move out of the country ASAP lol.
Too little, too late.
Sat. 10/04/10 11:44 EDT
.post #60
Thanks, and I apologize for misspelling your username.
That was embarrassing, but I’m glad you told me.
I compose in a text editor first, then copy and paste, which is one reason I manually enter quote tags.
The “word balloon” icon? That image is not hypertext, at least not viewed through my browser. Using the ‘quote’ button (as far as I can see) doesn’t automatically create a link to the location of the of the original post, but rather, just a “word balloon” icon, the OP’s username, and the text of the original post.
Are you are seeing something different?
On the flipside, I would imagine we would get to see the trashed economy blamed on some mixture of “Corporations”, “Bad Stock Brokers”, and “Capitalism”.