Could someone please articulate a answer for this Krugman arguement?

It’s about the ABCT, Krugman is obviously unhappy and disgracely trying to revoke it. I would like someone to bash this paragraph he wrote:

Here’s the problem: As a matter of simple arithmetic, total spending in the economy is necessarily equal to total income (every sale is also a purchase, and vice versa). So if people decide to spend less on investment goods, doesn’t that mean that they must be deciding to spend more on consumption goods—implying that an investment slump should always be accompanied by a corresponding consumption boom? And if so why should there be a rise in unemployment?

taken from:

http://www.slate.com/id/9593

Krugman didn’t do his homework: this is not the Austrian theory of the business cycle; it would be nice if he would bother to read something like Prices, and Production, or Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles before he proceeds to pontificate, but alas, I might have over-the-top expectations. I guess only a noble prize-winning economist can get away with not bothering to know the theory he “repudiates.”

Here’s an article about Krugman’s anaylsis, and many, many more are available in the daily articles section.

There shouldn’t be a rise in unemployment. If people spend less on investment and more on consumption, we’ll just have a consumption-driven economy with less growth than we would have had, had there been more investment. If investment falls below replacement, we’ll have a shrinking economy. There will still be no involuntary unemployment in the unregulated market.

Unemployment has two causes - first, regulation/minimum wage, and so on. The second is a recession/depression. What causes that? Not a “slump” in investment, but rather an inflationary boom followed by a bust. When projects come to fruition at the conclusion of the boom but do not meet with sufficient demand, there will be unemployment.

A third cause of unemployment, by the way, would be an end to the law of scarcity. Economic growth should also decrease the amount that people have to work. Cheap imports can also, at least temporarily, cause people not to have to work. If I show up at your house and wash your dishes, your teenage son will be out of work for the night.

Thanks guys!

I always like to read things Austrians write, 99.9% of the time they’re clearer and make more sense than any of the mainstream propaganda shovelers.

I don’t understand what krugman is saying in that paragraph and how it misrepresents the Austrian position. can someone break it down in layman’s terms?

If I wanted to quickly explain the Austrian view, I’d begin with the PPF showing the trade-off between investment/saving and consumption. Using that, I’d explain the situation without a central bank. Without a central bank, the people by their preferences establish some point on this frontier. Where they put that point determines what the economy will do. If they have more investment than is required for replacement, we’re building up capital, lowering interest rates, and signaling business to expand their capacity, since current savings indicates less consumption now (hence less resources should be devoted to producing consumption goods) and more consumption in the future, and on more capital-intensive goods. The result is a more roundabout, and hence productive, production cycle.

For example, suppose Crusoe needs to bring water to his cabin for his sick wife. The least roundabout method, but the fastest at present, is to cup the water in his hand. A more roundabout method is to chop down some trees and create a plumbing system. Any observer fully understands if they say “why are you running around with water in your hands?” and he says “because I need to bring water home.” It requires more foresight, though, to understand if we ask him “why are you cutting down trees?” and he says “because I need to bring water home.”

Since he wants the water now - high time preference, high consumption, low savings - he will use his hands.

Now, suppose you somehow loan him some money, or equivalently that the cabin when he found it happened to have water in it already. Then he’d cut down the trees. Why is this better? Because now, once he’s done with that project (say it takes a week) he no longer needs to run around with water in his hands, and can turn his labor to something else, or just consume leisure. By contrast, if he can’t build the plumbing, he has to forever run around with water in his hands.

Fine. Now, the more investment, the more the economy can expand, pushing the PPF outwards. On the other hand, at higher consumption levels, we have slower growth, until we reach the point of full replacement, at which there is no growth. If consumption is even higher than that, we have contraction. This is like not taking any efforts to maintain the plumbing system in the future and having it fall apart, because you’re so busy consuming (say, in the form of leisure) that your investment isn’t high enough to prepare well for the future.

Now, before beginning the plumbing project, Crusoe will need to do a feasibility study. In other words, he checks to see if he has enough water on hand already before beginning, or has an available line of credit, or whatever, so that he won’t run out of water in the middle of his project. If he makes a mistake, then halfway through building the project, he’ll have to abandon it and go back to running around with water in his hands, making what he’s done so far a waste.

Coming back to the real economy, a recession/depression occurs when lots of people make this type of mistake. Why would that happen? On the market, it wouldn’t. To see why this happens, we add the central bank. The bank pushes down interest rates by increasing money supply. On the curve, this is a move upwards on the investment side (more money put into the banks) without any corresponding horizontal move, taking us off the curve. That is, we have too much consumption for the current interest rates. (In fact, consumption will rise, since the money will also flow into consumer credit, and increase house prices, and so on.) This gives the same signal as before, causing businesses to expand their capacity and engage in more roundabout production processes. However, savings has not increased. In the short term, then, we have rising prices, as consumption increases while businesses decrease their output of consumption goods. In the long term, the products made possible through low interest - capital intensive products - come onto market, but do not meet sufficient consumer demand, since savings are down, not up. These products go unsold, causing a fall in prices, businesses to take losses, and so on.

Now, if someone with Krugman’s inadequate grasp of economics reads this, they might jump to the conclusion that the Austrian point is “investment good, consumption bad.” After all, in the first case, more investment means more growth, and in the second, one can say, without being too absurd, that “things would have worked out alright if people had saved more during the boom” although this is not at all the source of the problem. So Krugman reads this view of the business cycle as blaming the bust on too little investment. So, he responds, how can the cause be too little investment? That picture suggests that falling investment causes unemployment - but that frees up money for consumption, so why can’t people work on producing consumption goods?