Krugman claims Austrians can't explain unemployment

I just saw somebody on the “scienceforum” I used to frequent bring out this crap by the one and only Krugmeister:

"My view is that the fatal flaw in Austrian economics is that it can’t explain unemployment — or, worse, that it thinks that it can explain unemployment, but is deluding itself. The Austrian view is that unemployment in a slump results from the difficulty of “adaptation of the structure of production” — workers are unemployed as resources are painfully transferred out of an overblown investment-goods sector back into production of consumption goods.

But this immediately raises the question, why isn’t there similar unemployment during the boom, as workers are transferred into investment goods production?

I’ve asked this question repeatedly over the years, and all I get is one of two things: gobbledygook, or “but during the phase of rising investment, the economy is booming!”, which is of course circular. In practice, Austrians seem to be Keynesians during booms without knowing it; they realize that high demand produces a boom, but don’t realize that this contradicts their own theory of slumps."

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/07/martin-and-the-austrians/

To my mind, it seems Krugman misses the precise point that during the boom an unsustainable expansion of the capital structure occurs, without the drop in consumer spending(and therefore increased savings), and hence one does not see the corresponding drop one would expect in the consumer goods sector while the investment sector is thriving and overall demand for resources and labour are raised. However, because the demand driving the investment sector was entirely artificial due to money supply manipulation lowering interest rates, that once these higher order stages begin to reach completion and the demand for their products is found wanting due to the lack of savings consumers have to purchase such products the recession ensues.

Any other thoughts? I normally wouldn’t harp about Krugman(he is what he is…), but it seems economically ignorant lefties seem him as an intellectual get out of jail free card, so I’m beginning to see why the Austrians emphasize discrediting him so much.

Krugman knows no such concepts as “capital structure” so he really isn’t missing anything, except for everything.

This is the problem right here. The above is Chinese to Krugman. Higher order stages, lack of savings, …etc. It is impossible to get anything across to him. You’re talking Astronomy to an Astrologist who insists he’s an Astronomer. It’s futile.

His understanding of the theory is flawed. He’s an interventionist, so the media and establishment love him. That’s about all I can say.

Krugman’s understanding of Austrian economics is equal to his understanding of the real world. That is: none at all! Unemployment is part of the readjustment phase. The employment that happens during the boom is fake employment, it is unsustainable and needs to end. While I applaud efforts by the likes of Robert Murphy and Peter Schiff in discrediting Krugman, I can only imagine how painful and tiring it is to refute such an intellectually bankrupt system as Keynesianism. Heck, the Austrian school has been doing this for decades, like a broken record. Refutations of keynesian and marxian idiots have to be done though.

Indeed, that is the “gobbledygook” he is complaining about. Its called economics.

According to ABCT, lay-offs don’t occur in the lower order industries during a boom. Instead, what happens is that higher-order industries have more cash, so they end up putting upward pressure on wages by hiring more workers. Thus, total demand for labor increases, which reduces unemployment (and probably increases the labor force by more than it would actually increase). Conversely, during a bust, ABCT dictates that higher order industries lay off workers, or at least reduce their compensation, which in turn lowers demand for goods and services from lower order industries, which can then reduce demand for labor from lower order industries as well.

so true!

Call me dense, but I don’t understand why anyone would expect unemployment to increase as workers move into the boom sectors. He’s making an assertion without explaining the basis of it. It would be akine to him saying, “But Austrians can’t explain why space aliens don’t invade during the boom phase!”.

He’s making the opposite argument. In reality one would expect that during a boom phase unemployment would shrink as workers are funneled into specific sectors.

Great post, but could you clarify something for me. Why do the higher-order industries necessarily have more cash? Is your explanation presuming that the overall time preference was low enough in the economy such that higher savings reduced interest rates and then incentivized expansion in higher order industries?

Murphy and Schiff are gonna have a field-day with this.

“In practice, Austrians seem to be Keynesians during booms without knowing it; they realize that high demand produces a boom, but don’t realize that this contradicts their own theory of slumps.”

When did Austrians deny that an increase in demand causes a boom? I was under the impression that that was an important part of the ABCT. Of course they believe that the boom cannot last forever and that the only reason it exists in the first place is due to a misallocation of resources but still they believes that an increase in demand causes a short-term boom.

Hi everyone,

I’m a new member, but longtime supporter of Ron Paul and Tom Woods, which is how I found Mises. I admit I’m not adept in these types of discussion, so I would appreciate and comments and opinions on this piece I saw recently. Tom suggested I post it here to get a variet of responses. Thanks.

nice analogy

Hi everyone,

I’m a new member, but longtime supporter of Ron Paul and Tom Woods, which is how I found Mises. I admit I’m not adept in these types of discussion, so I would appreciate and comments and opinions on this piece I saw recently. Tom suggested I post it here to get a variet of responses. Thanks.

http://illexposed.wordpress.com/ To read whole article, click link…

A Response to Ron Paul’s “Straight Talk”

January 7, 2010 by Jeremy Sofian

Ludwig Von Mises

Congressman Ron Paul recently posted a short article on his “Texas Straight Talk” column entitled “Keynesianism Delivers a Decade of Zero

We are going to start on the premise that the Austrian School and the Keynsian School of economics are deeply flawed, the former more so than the latter. I advocate neither and this article is going to focus on Ron Paul and the ideas he is putting forward.

Upon examination of this article it appears to be nothing more than a finger pointing rant against Paul Krugman, who has been wrong on so many issues that it appears to have the goal of propping up Ron Paul’s monetary ideas by scapegoating an incompetent economist for something far deeper than Keynsian Economics. I am going to respond to key excerpts of the article.

Afterall, Krugman is still scratching his head as to why “no” economists saw the housing bust coming. How in the world did they miss it? Actually many economists saw it coming a mile away, understood it perfectly, and explained it many times. Policy makers would have been wise to heed the warnings of the Austrian economists, and must start listening to their teachings if they want solid progress in the future. If not, the necessary correction is going to take a very long time.

So, we have Ron Paul attacking Paul Krugman here, apparently in attempt to preach the infallible “Austrian” doctrine. He maintains policy makers “must” start listening to Austrian teachings if they want solid progress in the future. This is of course, disregarding the fact that the cause of the current situation was not a housing bubble, it was a derivative bubble. He then asserts the necessary “correction” is going to take a very long time.

Correction? is that what this is? a “correction” ? I would argue this is the fraud based looting of the economy by a private banking cartel and i will get into that in detail in a moment.

The Austrian free-market economists use common sense principles. You cannot spend your way out of a recession. You cannot regulate the economy into oblivion and expect it to function.

Well i have news for Congressman Paul, this is not a recession, nor a depression – but a complete systemic break-down of the entire monetary system. However, according to the backwards monetary theory of the Austrian School, no matter what happens, the economy will automatically “correct” itself so long as there are no regulations and the government stays out of the way.

I am curious as to what regulations Congressman Paul is speaking of when he mentions regulating the economy into “oblivion”, because he appears to be molding reality so it conforms to his theory. And we will touch on the very specific de-regulations that have landed us here in the first place in a moment. As far as i can see it, there has been a sweeping de-regulation of the entire financial system.

Insofar as spending your way out of a “recession”, the only spending i have seen is the donation of 24 trillion dollars to Wall Street by the privately owned (Non-Governmental Institution) Federal Reserve System. Then there is the massive war budget, which is not mentioned in this article, and finally the comparatively minuscule “stimulus” package which was a complete mess, but atleast expanded a few necessities such as food stamps for people who are starving due to the near 25% unemployment rate and destruction of many 401k, IRA and Pension retirement plans. Of course, the Federal Government insists unemployment is a mere 10% but the reality of the situation is those statistics are completely cooked.

You cannot tax people and businesses to the point of near slavery and expect them to keep producing. You cannot create an abundance of money out of thin air without making all that paper worthless. The government cannot make up for rising unemployment by just hiring all the out of work people to be bureaucrats or send them unemployment checks forever. You cannot live beyond your means indefinitely. The economy must actually produce something others are willing to buy. Government growth is the opposite of all these things.

Correct, you cannot tax people or businesses to the point of near slavery and expect them to keep producing, however you also cannot blatantly ignore that fact that businesses are not producing because they are in perpetual debt and 70% of the liquidity in the banking system has been destroyed by toxic illiquid derivatives, thus banks are unable to lend. Please bear in mind, these derivatives are creations of the free-markets (In this case, the banks who are free to do what they please) and not the Government.

Congressman Paul then asserts you cannot create an abundance of money “out of thin air”. Well, this statement begs the question, how does money come into existence in the first place? Contrary to the half baked Austrian theory that a currency will have intrinsic value if it is a precious metal, a currency derives its value from the national net production out-put relative to it’s population density. Thus if gold for instance, were used as money without issuing it into something that expands the economy’s ability to produce it would also be money created “out of thin air”.

Austrian School fanatics routinely suggest or imply that a necessary ingredient to solving this problem is to simply halt or slow the creation (or “printing”) of money, but as any objective observer can now see, not only would that not solve anything — since it would neither halt nor even slow the compounding of the countless billions in unpayable interest debt that hangs over our heads — it would, by increasing the built-in money shortage, merely accelerate the speed by which the banking elite could foreclose on countless properties and businesses nationwide.

The problem is that demand is artificial. Look at the housing market. Why did demand go up? Was it due to increased savings? Was it due to some natural decrease in the costs of production? Nope on both. It was due to tinkering with interest rates (and other regulations) which caused people to have access to financing that they shouldn’t have. If interest rates are kept at 4% on a 30 year mortgage, or lower on an ARM, and lending standards are relaxed due to pressure to get everyone in a home of course demand will go up, but it’s not legitimate demand.

I’ll leave others to slice and dice that article, but let’s just say that it’s a pretty poorly thought out article.

Ron Paul never said our current situation was caused by the housing bubble. ABCT states that business cycles occur when artificially low interest rates skew the appearance of aggregate time preference causing malinvestments over the whole of the economy.

A correction is exactly what it is. The recession liquidates all of the malinvestment caused during the boom.

Any person who has taken Economics 101 knows that without government intervention the market will always return to equilibrium. That is what the Austrian’s say needs to happen to the interest rate in order to correct the artificially inflated economy.

This is a ludicrous assumption. How is the banking system “de-regulated” when it is still controlled by a central bank who determines how much new money is created and how low the interest rate will be?

The critic seems to fall into the trap of the Broken Window. The economy is not stimulated by shifting spending from one industry to another (By government taking consumers money, which the consumer could have spent, and spending it in another area).

Also, whether the FRB is governmental or not is irrelevant, as it is a protected monopoly granted power by the federal government.

This is a misnomer, the banking system is not free. It is better to apply the term “state capitalism” when describing the banking system.

Austrian theory says the opposite of this. Nothing has an intrinsic value. Value is subjective.

This is a complete misrepresentation of the “out of thin air” quote. Austrian theory is clear that money is created out of thin air through Fractional-Reserve Banking. You can’t do that with gold, because you can’t create gold.

His argument is that the federal government should inflate the money supply through the FRB so that it can pay it’s debt and so that borrowers can pay back banks.

Both of these acts are acts of fraud as the borrower is paying the lender back with a purposefully devalued dollar.

Maybe you can try to be more specific. Perhaps, try to dig out one issue at a time and ask about it. Because the whole thing is just a collection of economic fallacies from start to finish.

It’s really all the nonsense popularized by the money masters, money as debt, and all those other socialists who will insist that the Fed is a real private institution and the poor government is hostage to a few money masters.

Jeffrey blogged about it with a Mises Daily by Murphy from 2008.

http://blog.mises.org/12413/krugman-yet-again/

As far as the employment thing goes, I’m no econ master, but just because the bubble occurred in assets doesn’t mean that more money wasn’t also being spent on goods and services. So it makes sense that a lot of people would have jobs in sectors that weren’t as bubblified (yes I said bubblified) as housing.