Dr. Paul is now at 23% in second. WHAT?
Dammit!
This is why I don’t watch basketball!
It might just stay basically statistically equal the whole night.
That is not how statistics works. There is a definitely selection bias going on. I’m guessing it’s in favor of Santorum, whose votes will slow down as the night progresses. Sadly, I also think that some of Paul’s votes are early enthusiastic votes as well. Romney will gain later on.
Relative to the current spread, that is:
| CANDIDATE | VOTES | PCT. |
|---|---|---|
Santorum |
1,229 |
Paul |
1,204 |
Romney |
1,132 |
Gingrich |
690 |
Sure it is, but anyways statistics alone can’t predict anything.
LOL…I’m watching CNN and they announced Paul as the entrance poll winner. Apparently, they didn’t like that, so they “found” some other entrance poll results and found, again, that Paul was ahead 24% to 23 and 23…and they are calling it a tie. You can’t make this stuff up…
|
CANDIDATE |
VOTES |
PERCENT |
DELEGATES* |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
2,273 |
24.2% |
— |
|
|
|
2,160 |
23.0 |
— |
|
|
|
2,152 |
22.9 |
— |
|
|
|
1,238 |
13.2 |
— |
|
|
|
886 |
9.4 |
— |
|
|
|
588 |
6.3 |
— |
|
|
|
85 |
0.9 |
||
Ron Paul
Rick Santorum
Mitt Romney
Newt Gingrich
Rick Perry
Michele Bachmann
Others Show all 
Romney, the old farts’ candidate.
I’m definitely now expecting a Romney increase. RP is winning in only one of the 5 major cities in Iowa, while Romney wins 3. Santorum will win the 5th. Where Romney leads Santorum is following.
I am guessing the areas that are not yet reporting are more rural and will increase the votes of Santorum, then Perry, then Gingrich. Current numbers:
|
CANDIDATE |
VOTES |
PERCENT |
DELEGATES* |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3,821 |
24.1% |
— |
|
|
|
3,650 |
23.0 |
— |
|
|
|
3,636 |
22.9 |
— |
|
|
|
2,058 |
13.0 |
— |
|
|
|
1,571 |
9.9 |
— |
|
|
CANDIDATE |
VOTES |
PERCENT |
DELEGATES* |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4,440 |
24.0% |
— |
|
|
|
4,292 |
23.2 |
— |
|
|
|
4,183 |
22.6 |
— |
|
|
|
2,460 |
13.3 |
— |
|
|
|
1,817 |
9.8 |
— |
|
DailyPaul.com is down for some reason 
|
CANDIDATE |
VOTES |
PERCENT |
DELEGATES* |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5,348 |
23.9% |
— |
|
|
|
5,283 |
23.6 |
— |
|
|
|
4,988 |
22.3 |
— |
|
|
|
2,978 |
13.3 |
— |
|
|
|
2,237 |
10.0 |
— |
|
Probably can’t handle the traffic like the page I linked to couldn’t. NYT has better infrastructure.
Dude - idea! The results are announced over live stream before they are actually posted on the NY website. We can buy shares in candidates with fresh info before the public gets it!
Tiiiight:
|
CANDIDATE |
VOTES |
PERCENT |
DELEGATES* |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6,067 |
23.2% |
— |
|
|
|
6,060 |
23.2 |
— |
|
|
|
6,018 |
23.0 |
— |
|
|
|
3,502 |
13.4 |
— |
|
|
|
2,733 |
10.4 |
— |
|
I picked a really bad day to start measuring my resting heart rate.
|
CANDIDATE |
VOTES |
PERCENT |
DELEGATES* |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
7,425 |
23.1% |
— |
|
|
|
7,375 |
23.0 |
— |
|
|
|
7,358 |
22.9 |
— |
|
|
|
4,248 |
13.2 |
— |
|
|
|
3,315 |
10.3 |
— |
|
Rofl 
Dangit. I should stop watching these results and actually do something. I think that Paul will fall at least 1% and Santorum will edge out Romney by 0.5% somewhere in the next hour.