“Excluding all other mandates and problems, why is the risk pool argument not valid? The idea is to spread risk and there would be plenty of customers among which to spread the risk.”
How do you know there will be “plenty” of customers to spread the risk? How many sick people have been added to the insurance pool and what is their individual costs? How many new healthy enrollees are going to join? This is impossible to know.
The penalty/tax for not enrolling is too low to actually force the uninsured to buy insurance. Some will join, others will find it cheaper to pay the tax. In fact, that is what allowed Roberts to rule that this law wasn’t coercive (and thus constituitional), because the penalty for not buying insurance was so low it wouldn’t force healthy, young individuals to enroll.
Also, the government believes that preventitive medicine will actually lower costs in the long term. I call BS on that as well. Just because someone now has insurance, are they going to magically lose weight, eat healthier, and exercise more. Are they going to stop smoking and drinking too much alcohol? Again, it is another impossible calculation to make, to say that preventitive care is going to lower costs.
Some will say “but people are already using the emergency room without insurance and then everyone else gets stuck footing the bill.” This is true, but to what extent? It has been my experience that people with state Medicaid are the largest abusers of this, precisely because they get discharged with almost no copay, and then they come and get their prescription drugs for free. I don’t believe it is the uninsured, healthy 25 year-old male that is rushing off to the E.R.
In my opinion, this is purposely designed to fail. Why? It’s no secret the leftist wants to have a single payor system. If he can’t legislate a single payor system, the backdoor option is to bankrupt the private insurers. As stated above, the penalties, which start at 1% of your income and cap out at 2.5%, are too low to force you to buy insurance. Also, the $2000 fine imposed on companies with more than 50 employees may also be cheaper than actually providing insurance. Now those companies have an excuse to stop providing insurance, because we can all get it from the state exchanges.