Over the past few weeks we’ve seen the usual trickle of “boat people” from North Africa turn into a flood. The Italian government hasn’t been very forthcoming with information: for example the arrival numbers they quoted just yesterday are very different from those reported by foreign media, which tend to be quite coherent (around 25000) and probably closer to the truth. They are also playing hide and seek with the exact location of of where refugee camps are being located. One camp became known when locals started blogging about the large number of buses and police vehicles in the area: a major break out was filmed and posted on Youtube with embarassed government officials forced to admit the reality of the camp but hurried to say all escapees had been captured.
France has strengthened border controls and fielded “Quick Reaction” Gendarmerie crack teams (not known for their good manners) and this led to clashes between Italian and French policemen on the Ventimiglia border.
Europe has an immigration issue, it’s true, which is exacerbated by the fact immigrants tend to flock to overcrowded areas and some groups, emboldened by the general PC climate, have become quite bold and raised their sights. The original plan was to open the borders to have cheap manpower (to try and beat the Chinese at their own game) and to pay pensions. It was an idiotic plan at the best and downright dangerous at worst. Now the thing is going out of control and, all of a sudden, we have an immigration crisis. Mind the numer of “boat people” is quite small compared to the huge numbers entering Europe each year legally but as the saying goes it just takes a straw to break an overloaded camel’s back.
Voters have become so worried about immigration and the complete lack of response by governments they are ready to vote any “no-name” promising a solution, no matter how patently ridiculous or impossible to implement in reality. Politicians preoccupied with re-election (like French President Sarkozy) have found riding the immigration tiger is a quick and easy way to get votes. “Getting tough” on paper while doing nothing useful in reality, that ancient political trick, still works.
It has often being said the Roman Empire was brought down by barbarians banging at its gates. The reality was quite different and much more complicated. We know, for example, whole barbarian people were given lands inside the Empire’s borders to pay for their military services since the barbarians had no use for the debased silver coins the Romans offered them. Civilis, the Batavian leader who destroyed whole legions and terrorized the Empire, served for decades as a mercenary for Rome. He was rewarded with Roman citizenship the title of equites. As it’s usually said those who ignore history are bound to relive it.
I think the Roman experience is guide for more than a reason. Back than, Romans saw their world changing forever. One could easily understand that, by instituting the maze of regulations that Roma had, it has destroyed the society that won so many battles. This society could barely hang on. Thus the future would be one vastly different, genetically speaking, from the present. In this sense, a major demographic change is happening in . Closing borders will only make it happen by crisis and war, instead of gradually. History, it seems to me, has little patience for ‘loosers’.
There’s another thing to take into consideration. A recent study found employment level among working-age immigrants in my own region, Lombardy, to be 60,4%. Even allowing for a further 15% to be “shadow employees” (illegal workers) that means unemployment runs at a whooping 25% among immigrant workers. Unemployment among Italian citizens is at 8,5% of the manpower (meaning children, retirees and invalids are already out of the picture), peaking at 20% among the 18-30 age group. Mind these are official government statistics so they should be taken cum grano salis. What’s the point of allowing more manpower in when unemployment is running so high even among those coming here ostensibly looking for a job? That’s why I say the thing has completely gone out of control and nobody wants to do anything about it.
Form what I hear of relatives living in and elsewhere, I suspect that 15% allowance for shadow employment might be a vast understatement. Unless Italy actually hands over cash to immigrants for fine living (and perhaps a few counties actually come close), I don’t think anyone would be immigrating to a much more expensive country unless jobs could be found easily, as compared to the mother country, of course.
I am quoting data for my area because I know the situation well. Around here it’s just easier (and not much more expensive) to hire temporary immigrant workers or contract work to a “social cooperative”.Perhaps way down South the situation is different but I have no direct knowledge so I won’t comment. Four factors should be taken into account: the first is immigration around here tend to come from North Africa. Their women just stay home, they don’t work even if they are of working age. Government bureaucrats don’t take this into account. The second is many immigrants use this area as a “staging area” to get to France or Germany: permits are very easy to obtain here (legally) and once you have that you can move freely inside the EU. The third is the housing burst. With it many firms had to shut down or cut manpower, usually starting with immigrant workers. The fourth and final is the fact many immigrants don’t have a steady job. They are hired and fired every few months, drawing unemployment benefits in between.